Good debut sires

[Calzone Lord]

Here are some of the better ones.

Starting off with a veteren sire low-profile one and a newer sire low profile one.


West Acre:

2011: 13-4-3-0 (31% wins) 4.57 ROI

* 30/1 shot also with a 2nd place finish.

2010: 16 4 1 2 (25% wins) 2.17 ROI
2009: 19-7-0-4 (37% wins) 6.61 ROI (<-- $55 winner at Gulfstream)
2008: 29-8-3-5 (28% wins) 5.94 ROI
2007: 28-3-6-5 (11% wins) 1.76 ROI (28/1 shot 2nd)

From 2002 through 2005: 9-for-38 (23.7% wins) AVG win mutual: $21.20

As a broodmare sire of first-time starters in 2011:

7-2-2-0 (29% wins) 7.11 ROI (2nd's at 7/1 and 16/1 odds)


Kela:

2011: 36-8-2-3 (22% wins) 3.58 ROI

* the two 2nd place finishes at odds of 16/1 and 40/1.

2010: 44-6-1-5 (14% wins) 2.79 ROI
2009: 11-3-0-4 (27% wins) 11.58 ROI (<-- $100+ winner at Hollywood)

Career: 17-for-91

[Calzone Lord]

West Acre was an unraced son of Forty Niner. Hard for an unraced horse to make it as a sire.

Here is Forty Niner's best son in terms of stallion success... with debuters.

Distorted Humor:

2011: 55-7-5-6 (13% wins) 1.26 ROI

* One of the 2nd's was at 60/1 odds. Winners included sky-high speed figures from Maclean's Music and Machen.

2010: 63-14-5-10 (22% wins) 2.76 ROI
2009: 83-18-13-8 (22% wins) 3.23 ROI
2008: 73-10-7-6 (14% wins) 2.00 ROI (2nd at 61/1 odds at CD)
2007: 93-13-16-9 (14% wins) 1.59 ROI (five 2nd's at double digit odds)

2002-to-2005: 24-for-124 (19% wins) $17.24 avg win mutual.

[Calzone Lord]

Here's a sire who won the Tyro Stakes going 5.5 furlongs at age two -- he's only had two crops to race so far, and is just killing them.

Deputy Storm (first-time starters)

2011: 2-for-12 (17% Wins) $9.53 ROI (Winners were 12/1 and 43/1)
2010: 2-for-11 (18% wins) $3.76 ROI


Deputy Storm (ALL STARTERS)

2011: 27-for-125 (22% wins) 5.66 ROI
2010: 10-for-49 (20% wins) 2.95 ROI

His offspring come running, win races, and have been very under-valued in the betting it would seem.

[hockey2315]

Did these a while back. . . not all the way through the 2011.

[VOL JACK]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

West Acre was an unraced son of Forty Niner. Hard for an unraced horse to make it as a sire.

Here is Forty Niner's best son in terms of stallion success... with debuters.

Distorted Humor:

2011: 55-7-5-6 (13% wins) 1.26 ROI

* One of the 2nd's was at 60/1 odds. Winners included sky-high speed figures from Maclean's Music and Machen.

2010: 63-14-5-10 (22% wins) 2.76 ROI
2009: 83-18-13-8 (22% wins) 3.23 ROI
2008: 73-10-7-6 (14% wins) 2.00 ROI (2nd at 61/1 odds at CD)
2007: 93-13-16-9 (14% wins) 1.59 ROI (five 2nd's at double digit odds)

2002-to-2005: 24-for-124 (19% wins) $17.24 avg win mutual.

I didn't realize DH had such a mediocre year as a debut sire.
I have got where I really look for them. Especially with trainers with low first out win%, where I know they will be a price.
I did cash nicely on Power World at CD for Neil Howard.
He broke dead last by a lot, passed them all going 5f and paid $52.

[Dahoss]

Good stuff guys. Seems like I see a lot of Wildcat Heir firsters winning. Am I just making that up or is he a pretty good sire of firsters?

[Calzone Lord]

He had a great first year -- so good win percentage wise that it probably hurt his value a little.

The past two years, he's had quite a few more 2nd's than wins.


Wildcat Heir:

2011: 64-4-10-8 (6% wins) 1.07 ROI (three 2nd's at double digits odds)
2010: 80-12-13-8 (15% wins) 1.83 ROI
2009: 60-17-11-7 (28% wins) 2.36 ROI

[Calzone Lord]

Dehere was one of my favorte debut sires before he got deported. Since coming back to America, he's starting to do well again.

Last year, Dehere's debuters won 9-of-44 (20% wins) with a $3.05 ROI.

However, Dehere is killing the world as a broodmare sire of 1st-time starters:

2011: 69-15-5-8 (22% wins) 3.31 ROI

* 2nd place finishers at 10/1 and 17/1. 3rd place finishers at 10/1, 14/1, 43/1 and 54/1 odds!

2010: 61-11-4-4 (18% wins) 4.34 ROI
2009: 56-10-4-8 (18% wins) 2.46 ROI (28/1 Zito debuter 2nd)
2008: 63-14-7-9 (22% wins) 2.50 ROI
2007: 70-13-8-10 (19% wins) 2.50 ROI

* in 2007 alone, 2nd place finishes at 13/1, 21/1, 27/1, and 37/1 odds. 3rd place finishes at 12/1, 16/1, 30/1, and 46/1 odds!!


Freaking amazing. Every single year he had a massive profit from a sample size of at least 56 different horses.

[Alabama Stakes]

thanks for the awesome info....what do you know about Old Fashioned so far as a sire ?

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by Alabama Stakes

what do you know about Old Fashioned so far as a sire ?

Nothing yet.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

Dehere was one of my favorte debut sires before he got deported. Since coming back to America, he's starting to do well again.

I think Dehere got shipped out again. He went to Turkey with Lion Heart.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

I think Dehere got shipped out again. He went to Turkey with Lion Heart.

Ouch.

[Calzone Lord]

Salt Lake is a pretty sneaky good broodmare sire of debuters.

2011: 94-12-5-9 (13% wins) 1.94 ROI (Includes 10/1 winner Agave Kiss)
2010: 76-14-7-4 (18% wins) 2.20 ROI (2nd's at 26/1 and 46/1 odds)
2009: 80-11-8-8 (14% wins) 3.64 ROI
2008: 89-16-11-14 (18% wins) 3.25 ROI

* In 2008 alone, 2nd place finishes at 15/1, 15/1, 30/1, and 47/1. As well as 3rd place finishes at 10/1, 12/1, 13/1, 14/1, 30/1, 35/1, and 46/1.

2007: 73-5-4-7 (7% wins) 0.59 ROI (23/1 and 83/1 shots both finished 2nd. Would have REALLY reversed the ROI in a surprisingly bad year)

[Calzone Lord]

Regal Classic -- a Canadian Champion 2yo and second place finisher in the 1987 BC Juvenile -- has had five straight profitable years as a broodmare sire of debuters:

2011: 52-7-4-5 (13% wins) 2.28 ROI
2010: 62-9-5-3 (15% wins) 2.92 ROI
2009: 74-7-6-7 (9% wins) 2.77 ROI
2008: 64-6-9-2 (9% wins) 2.37 ROI
2007: 61-8-2-10 (13% wins) 2.21 ROI

In 2007 alone, he had a 2nd place finisher at 18/1 and 3rd place finishers at 11/1, 14/1, 14/1, 18/1, 24/1, 24/1, 40/1 and 44/1!! Eight of his ten 3rd place finishers that year went off at between 11-to-1 and 44-to-1 odds.

[hockey2315]

Ya - Dehere is by far my favorite broodmare sire for value. . .

[Calzone Lord]

Indian Charlie's had an ok start as a broodmare sire of debuters:

2011: 35-6-6-6 (17% wins) 2.49 ROI
2010: 21-3-1-3 (14% wins) 1.35 ROI (2nd at 29/1 with horse who debuted in stakes race)
2009: 18-4-2-2 (22% wins) 5.33 ROI

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

Ya - Dehere is by far my favorite broodmare sire for value. . .

I'm kind of surprised at how horrible Glitterman is at it.

2011: 4-for-46 (9%) $0.75 ROI
2010: 3-for-52 (6%) $0.75 ROI
2009: 3-for-50 (6%) $0.65 ROI
2008: 2-for-46 (4%) $0.39 ROI
2007: 1-for-37 (3%) $0.14 ROI


Five years of single digit win percentages, and brutally low ROI's.

[Calzone Lord]

Arch (sire of Blame) is profitable all 4 years as a broodmare sire with debuters.


2011: 4-for-24 (17%) $2.26 ROI
2010: 6-for-25 (24%) $2.37 ROI (Uncle Mo was one of his winners)
2009: 3-for-21 (14%) $2.28 ROI
2008: 1-for-7 (14%) $2.71 ROI

Obviously small sample size. There will be a ton more Arch mares being bred to.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

Indian Charlie's had an ok start as a broodmare sire of debuters:

2011: 35-6-6-6 (17% wins) 2.49 ROI
2010: 21-3-1-3 (14% wins) 1.35 ROI (2nd at 29/1 with horse who debuted in stakes race)
2009: 18-4-2-2 (22% wins) 5.33 ROI

Who was the 29/1 shot in the stakes?

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

Arch (sire of Blame) is profitable all 4 years as a broodmare sire with debuters.


2011: 4-for-24 (17%) $2.26 ROI
2010: 6-for-25 (24%) $2.37 ROI (Uncle Mo was one of his winners)
2009: 3-for-21 (14%) $2.28 ROI
2008: 1-for-7 (14%) $2.71 ROI

Obviously small sample size. There will be a ton more Arch mares being bred to.

Also the broodmare sire of Uncle Mo