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#1
09-11-2011, 08:51 AM
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9/11: Belmont (5th-10th)
Enjoyed a fun and fast-paced Saturday afternoon with eclectic action around the ovals punctuated by highly bettable sequences and stakes at BEL, LaD, AP, PID and more. Late P4 at Belmont went my way and paid nicely thanks to Contessa's late-running $29 Fast Grievance, the best possible result in the anchor leg for a $367 bingo. Earlier in the quad, KMc's Freshman Dorm paid a bulky $15.80 in the scrambled 7th, and keyed an $82.50 triple that got the Fall Meet punting off to a great start.
Got knocked out of the Super Derby/All Stakes P4 immediately when old favorite Golden Yank rallied neatly inside of invading Lonesome Street and Mystic, but caught some OK exotics through the final 3 races to exit Bozier City whole. Baffert's Prayer for Relief (3-2, fave) and Rafy Bejarano exited LaDowns with $300k thanks to clever front-end thievery that allowed the now 3X Derby winner outrageously soft fractions (:24.2, :50.1, 1:15.2). When Graham Motion joined Seth Merrow and I Saturday morning on Capital OTB, he indicated that Meistersinger (3-1, 2nd choice) could be expected to be part of the pace picture, so it's hard to imagine he was happy with Lezcano's torpid handling of the 3-1 second choice who finished 8th. Was a good day overall andf I hope everyone did well! Sunday card at Belmont is particularly good from the 5th race on, and includes a MSW 9th that unveils Animal Kingdom half brother THURSBY (Mr. Greeley)... BELMONT PARK 10th RACE TAKEN OFF THE 'GOOD' TURF POST-SCRATCHES 5th: NY-OC/N2X, 3+, 8.5f-MOVED TO INNER TURF (P6, P3, DD, Super) As usual, state-bred OC/ALW on grass provides fodder for gleeful wagering. Ignore Bishop of Nola's off-turf flop and string of eligible performances remain. Rocky F is obvious threat back to spring runs.. Most Likely: #7 Bishop of Nola 5-1 3rd Best Value: #8 Mr. Enrico 20-1 WON ($56.50) Next Best: #5 Rocky F 9-5 4th Exotics Use: #2 Sky Blue Pink 7-2 2nd $1 Exacta (8-2) Paid $120.25 $1 Trifecta (8-2-7) Paid $359.50 $1 Superfecta (8-2-7-5) Paid $485.00 6th: OC/N2X, 3+, 1m (G/S, P3, DD) Aren't you forced to ask yourself why Buffum, off that stunning Spa performance, is running back in this kind of event? Most Likely: #6 Buffum 1-1 2nd (DQ'd from WIN) Next Best: #4 Bold Warrior 5-2 WON-DQ ($9.20) Best Value: #3 Golden Gulch 8-1 3rd 7th: MSW, 2yo-F, 7f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super) Tough to argue with likelihood of Pletcher 2nd timer Patrice Merion (English Channel), but there are some interesting options for inclusion. Matz has yet another 2yo prospect in LDK bay Somali Lemonade who hales from unraced Nureyev mare Chic Corine who has produced several turf winners including stake winners in the U.S. and Europe. Chic Corine is out of Ashland winner Chic Shirine, who as a dam produced Flying Passage (dam of Hungry Island and Soparing Empire); Mayan Maidan (dam of Maya, the dam of Al Khali); and G2 True North winner Waldboro (Lyphard). Single from Alan Goldberg is out of Love Match, a Partner's Hero bay that broke her maiden sprinting on dirt for Rodney Jenkins before John Kimmel sent her out to a G3 Matchmaker win (9f-T). David Fawkes has been trying to get Fly to the Sky on to the grass, a good idea considering her dam Flying Circle, (who Fawkes trained), was an outstanding turf sprint stakes performer that banked nearly $500k. Neil Howard's AE Honey Talk likely won't get in to the field, but her dam Sweet Talker should need no introduction as a G1 winning $1,000,000 earner on the lawn. Sweet Talker's first foal Perregaux, also with Howard, placed in the G2 Hall of Fame over the summer.. Most Likely: #2 Patrice Merion 2-1 8th Best Value: #4 Sweet and Lovely 20-1 3rd Exotics Use: #12 Fly to the Sky 15-1 10th Super Add: #7 Somali Lemonade 12-1 WON ($22.40) 8th: 36th Ashley T. Cole-NY, 3+, 9f-IT (P3, DD, Super) Predictably deep and balanced edition of this fun race. Defending champ Uncle T Seven came into the '10 running off just as weak-looking a performance as his West Point try.. Most Likely: #7 Pocket Cowboys 4-1 2nd Best Value: #8 Minnie Putt 12-1 3rd Next Best: #6 Straight Story 3-1 7th Exotics Use: #4 Compliance Officer 5-2 WON ($5.80) 9th: MSW, 2yo, 7f-T (DD, Super) Boys division countering fillies in the 7th features Team Valor/Motion debut of Mr. Greeley son Thursby, a half to Animal Kingdom. Motion said Saturday that he has talent and will get chances on dirt, but this spot seemed a good launching point for the colt. Serpe FTS Fly Ride is by Street Cry o/o the dam that produced 4X stake annexer Gilded Gold; Hertler returnee Quartermain is half to Queens' Plate winner Wild Desert; Donk brings out Indy Sea, a Jo'berg bay whose half sister Prospective Saint won the Gardenia and placed in the Princess Rooney.. Most Likely: #4 Trade 7-2 9th Best Value: #5 Indy Sea 10-1 4th Next Best: #11 Thursby 3-1 12th Exotics Use: #1 Apse 6-1 3rd 10th: CLM, F&M-3+, 6f-OFF THE TURF (Super) Most Likely: #14 Spina 5-2 WON ($5.30) Exotics Use: #16 Does It Every Time 6-1 7th Next Best: #13 Tempest Storm 4-1 6th Super Add: #12 Speckledbird 6-1 2nd <$75 P4 Play: 7: 2-4-7-12 8: 6-7-8 9: 4-5-11 10: 12-13-14-16 4x3x3x4 = 144 x .50 = $72 Good luck! Steve
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984. Last edited by Kasept : 09-11-2011 at 05:18 PM. 
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#2
09-11-2011, 10:59 AM
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SCR/CHG'S: http://www.equibase.com/premium/changes/BEL-changes.asp
(Am out and about with The Tina. Several changes that will impact the P4 play, and won't get a chance to make adjustments for a bit.)
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
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#4
09-11-2011, 02:14 PM
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How's THAT for delightful...
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
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#6
09-11-2011, 02:27 PM
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Nice hit if you played Steve, but I'm genuinely curious what there was to like about that horse. I'm just watching, but in looking at the PP's to say he was a stretch is putting it mildly.
Has turf racing in NY just become a guessing game as to who will be able to sit right off of a slow pace?
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#7
09-11-2011, 02:35 PM
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Quote:
Numerically, the pattern looks like this: 8/20: ----7.0 6/25: ----------9.5 5/27: -6.0 5/14: -----7.5
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
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#8
09-11-2011, 02:38 PM
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And thanks. Did nicely and have a DBL ticket yet with Buffum.
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
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#9
09-11-2011, 02:42 PM
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I'm not familiar with TG's so I'll take your word for it.
Fair to say the ride and where Espinoza put him helped out tremendously? The last time he showed any kind of early speed was 2 years ago, yet today he's right off the lead. These guys are riding the turf course like it's Keeneland poly when it first opened.
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#10
09-11-2011, 02:48 PM
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No doubt being forwardly placed was instrumental. He's not devoid of speed though and has been within 3-4L's of leaders in his last 3 against many of these. Was heady of Espo to be closer early with only Bishop and Runaway Jim being likely to set a (certain to be moderate) pace.
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
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#13
09-11-2011, 03:12 PM
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Quote:
__________________
Felix Unger talking to Oscar Madison: "Your horse could finish third by 20 lengths and they still pay you? And you have been losing money for all these years?!"
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#14
09-11-2011, 03:15 PM
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Quote:
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#18
09-11-2011, 04:42 PM
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Belmont 10
50 wp 14
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#19
09-11-2011, 05:02 PM
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Quote:
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#20
09-11-2011, 05:23 PM
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WEDNESDAY CARRYOVER $43,687
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
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