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#1
05-19-2011, 02:05 PM
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Mr. Commons
Hey, I know he lacks experience and he is stuck on the outside, but does anyone like this horse? I've been high on this horse since his Maiden score and I figure, there aren't any world beaters here and he will be at least 20-1. Why not? I think he has a good chance to improve. Any opinions would be appreciated.
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#3
05-19-2011, 02:15 PM
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The Santa Anita Derby is turning out to be quite the negative key race. Then again, most of them are this year.
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#4
05-19-2011, 02:23 PM
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I think the whole premise that John Sherrifs never ships a horse unless he truly believes he can win is a way overblown. Who knows what his motivation is, but he doesn't look like he belongs to me.
Same As Midnite Interlude. Just because Baffert has had past Preakness success means nothing. Where else is Midnite Interlude going to run? There's not a lot of options out west for a 3-year old colt this time of year. He clearly loves the Preakness and wants a runner in the race. I didn't like him in the Derby, and certainly won't be backing him in the Preakness.
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#5
05-19-2011, 02:50 PM
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Where was Animal Kingdom's key dirt race before the derby?
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#6
05-19-2011, 02:53 PM
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Yeah, the Santa Anita derby was very weak. I just feel that at a price, for me, why not take a chance on this horse. I don't know who my other logical contender is, but IMO I feel that this is a terrible 3 yr old crop, aside from maybe AK and why not take a new shooter. All these other horses have been beat by horses that alot of people don't like.
Again, that's just my opinion. I will probably play Animal Kingdom also.
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#8
05-19-2011, 03:00 PM
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Understood, I'm just saying for longshot value, he is my play over others. I expected to receive alot of negative feedback on him, that's why he's 20-1 on the morning line. I actually hope he will go up higher.
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#9
05-19-2011, 03:00 PM
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Five horses not to have run in the Derby have won the Preakness since 1980. I don't expect that we'll see a sixth this Saturday.
__________________
The world's foremost expert on virtually everything on the Redskins 2010 season: "Im going to go out on a limb here. I say they make the playoffs."
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#10
05-19-2011, 03:02 PM
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Yeah, I read that too, but I also think that the triple crown 3 yr olds are getting worse and worse.
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#12
05-19-2011, 06:21 PM
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Is 20-1 really value on Mr. Commons?
__________________
Still trying to outsmart me, aren't you, mule-skinner? You want me to think that you don't want me to go down there, but the subtle truth is you really don't want me to go down there!
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#13
05-19-2011, 07:48 PM
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#14
05-19-2011, 08:00 PM
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What is drawing you to him?
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#15
05-19-2011, 08:12 PM
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To me, 'the field sucks' alone isn't enough reason to just bet on anybody. I don't see what there is to like about Mr. Commons.
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#16
05-20-2011, 07:02 AM
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That post makes his case pretty tough for the win. I will play Dance City or sway away on top or may even Dutch them depending on price. Sway away is second time blinkers, upgrade on jockey and ran a nice ark derby. I love second time blinkers. Dance city was the only speed in that ark derby that lasted in his only stake try and was bothered in the stretch. He would need to improve just a little and he wins. Both horses are rested and there is room to improve at a price.
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#17
05-20-2011, 08:20 AM
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__________________
The world's foremost expert on virtually everything on the Redskins 2010 season: "Im going to go out on a limb here. I say they make the playoffs."
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#19
05-20-2011, 12:24 PM
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#20
05-20-2011, 03:05 PM
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__________________
"Success does not consist in never making blunders, but in never making the same one a second time." - Josh Billings
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