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#1
01-11-2011, 11:04 AM
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Crist ponders the new P4-5-6 landscape at GP..
Some intriguing observations by Crist about the late 'Picks' at Gulfstream and what potential approaches make sense with the Sunshine 6...
Five Ways to End the Day at Gulfstream By Steven Crist The new dime pick-6 averaged just $15k a day opening week, but it grew each day and could take off this coming week if it continues to carry. This wager is a completely different animal from the other pick-x bets and from the conventional pick-6 because the front end of the pool and the carryover are paid out only if there is a lone winner. If two or more people go 6-for-6, they share the consolation pool and it carries again. This raises a number of fascinating strategic issues I have yet to resolve in my own mind; your thoughts are most welcome. A conventional big-carryover approach of merely trying to "survive" a six-race sequence, singling heavy favorites and trying to get one or two interesting prices in along the way, being happy to be one of 20 or 50 winners, makes no sense: if successful, you'd be one of 20 or 50 people getting a small conso (sharing just 40 percent of that day's pool, with none of the carryover paid out.) You're not going to get one of those $5k or $10k payouts that can happen when nothing longer than a 5-1 shot wins during the sequence. Also, it seems that the worst thing you could ever do is to have it more than once or play it for more than a dime a combo. If the point is to be the sole winner, having it twice would appear to disqualify you from the jackpot.
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All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984. 
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#2
01-11-2011, 11:12 AM
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As crazy as it sounds, it's almost like you have to toss any Captain obvious and or most horses that would be A's on a lot of tickets. Start your structuring with B's and C's and go from there.
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Felix Unger talking to Oscar Madison: "Your horse could finish third by 20 lengths and they still pay you? And you have been losing money for all these years?!"
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#3
01-11-2011, 11:17 AM
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Quote:
 You're right. To hit the jackpot, it's almost the inverse of normal play - instead of trying to find the odd C that will get up so you win, you're trying to find the odd A you simply must keep, and throw out the rest.
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"Have the clean racing people run any ads explaining that giving a horse a Starbucks and a chocolate poppyseed muffin for breakfast would likely result in a ten year suspension for the trainer?" - Dr. Andrew Roberts
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#5
01-11-2011, 01:29 PM
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Until two tickets hit in the same day or for that matter anyone hits it, I'd go with the just try and get the SOB right. Of course at this point, with the c/o, playing a ticket chuck full of favorites is like betting a show ticket.
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“To compel a man to furnish funds for the propagation of ideas he disbelieves and abhors is sinful and tyrannical.” Thomas Jefferson
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#6
01-11-2011, 01:32 PM
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Until two tickets hit in the same day or for that matter anyone hits, I'd go with the just try and get the SOB right. Of course at this point, with the c/o, one playing a ticket chuck full of favorites should have show-bet-like expectations.
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“To compel a man to furnish funds for the propagation of ideas he disbelieves and abhors is sinful and tyrannical.” Thomas Jefferson
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#7
01-11-2011, 01:46 PM
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My uncle was at grove city when that jackpot was huge and they where going to take a week or so off on the bet, he was talking to a guy that day and there was two winning tickets. He had both tickets.
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If you are not going to lead get out of the way!
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#8
01-11-2011, 02:18 PM
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This would be a really cool bet if everyone was playing "perfectly" - i.e. tossing all lower priced horses in an attempt to be the only one to hit. At a certain point playing some chalkier combos could yield big results, but people are too clueless to play things correctly. The first thing I would probably do is find one longshot in the sequence that will knock out almost everyone and structure my ticket around that horse.
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#10
01-12-2011, 11:17 AM
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Quote:
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
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#12
01-12-2011, 03:54 PM
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#14
01-12-2011, 04:09 PM
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Today's result will add further intrigue...
Carryover goes to $31,500... BUT the 2 winning 6 of 6 plays get back a robust $5,370!... Now, if you're playing your normal multiples or even more than usual, (192 = $19.20 for example), isn't $5,400 an OK return? Interesting, eh?
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All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984. Last edited by Kasept : 01-12-2011 at 05:14 PM.
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#15
01-13-2011, 04:26 PM
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Will The GP 6 Carry Till The Close?
what are the chances this goes to 4/24/11 with a kitty of a couple million? it will be all out madness if that happens
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#16
01-13-2011, 04:38 PM
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Linear Mode
