7/4: Monmouth (P5); Belmont (P4); Queen's Plate; Firecracker

[Kasept]

Left a lot of money on the table in heart-breaking fashion Saturday with anchor leg shutout of the late P4 at Monmouth and a quad miss at Belmont that hurt. I wasn't close in the Oceanport nightcap after tying Pletcher chalk Hunter's Bay, $9.60 U.N. winner Chinchon and $16 Salvator 'all button' hero Gone Astray together to be live to 4 horses for real money. At Belmont, omission Onzain out-gamed my 15-1 wiseguy runner Mr. Enrico to prevent a very sizable four score. I've been taking beats like this for an extended period, but get the feeling that the pendulum is swinging in the right direction. On the plus side, had the correct idea in the Suburban laying out the mutuels exactly with Haynesfield getting the job done, and caught a nice triple before that with Pegasus Tommy D keying the $117 bingo. The 7th-9th P3 of Ad Infinitum-Pegasus Tommy D-Haynesfield was positive too, helping defray the afternoon's expenses with a $132 contribution.

Hope you did OK and are ready for a great 4th of July! Redboard King runs for the Lime and Royal of Dee Tee at Philadelphia later, and I hope partners and their families have a safe and fun holiday! Here's the complete stakes inventory for Independence Day, which includes the Queen's Plate, Canada's Derby, and the oldest race of its' kind in North America...

PRIORESS S. (G1), Belmont Park, $250,000, 3yo, f, 6f.
JERSEY SHORE S. (G3), Monmouth Park, $200,000, 3yo, 6f.
Miss Liberty S., Monmouth Park, $100,000, 3&up, f&m, 1 1/16mT.
FIRECRACKER H. (G2), Churchill Downs, $175,000, 3&up, 1mT.
AMERICAN H. (G2), Hollywood Park, $150,000, 3&up, 1 1/8mT.
CHICAGO H. (G3), Arlington Park, $100,000, 3&up, f&m, 7f.
Queen's Plate S. (r), Woodbine, $1,000,000, 3yo, 1 1/4m.
Highlander S. (Can-G2), Woodbine, $200,000, 3&up, 6fT.
Singspiel S. (Can-G3), Woodbine, $150,000, 3&up, 1 1/2mT.


MONMOUTH PARK


POST-SCRATCHES


6th (3:20p): MSW, F&M-3+, 1m-T (P5, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Pin Turn 4-1 5th
Best Value: #4 All About Alex 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #1 Somalia 3-1 4th
Super Add: #9 Dover Crescent 7-2 WON ($6.80)


7th: NJ-ALW/N1X, 3+, 1m (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #7 Dead Money 4-1 5th
Next Best: #4 Goombada Guska 3-1 WON ($4.80)
Best Value: #3 Dream Waltz 8-1 8th
Super Add: #6 Perky Juge 12-1 3rd


8th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Impossible group, and note that #14 (AE) Holyfield becomes major player should he draw in; #13 (AE) Rock Solid Arch is a value interest for exotics use should he get the opportunity to run.. Use as many as you can afford for the multis..

Most Likely: #14 Holyfield 5-1 2nd
Next Best: #6 Red Elephant 9-2 3rd
Best Value: #1 Awesome Son 12-1 WON ($16.80)
Super Add: #10 Footcandles 10-1 7th


9th: 19th Jersey Shore (G3), 3+, 6f (P4, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #6 Safe Trip 3-1 3rd
Next Best: #2 Discreetly Mine 5-2 WON ($4.80)
Best Value: #4 Christine Daae 4-1 6th
Super Add: #5 Cool Bullet 3-1 5th


10th: Miss Liberty, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #8 Eye of Taurus 10-1 3rd
Next Best: #14 Maram 9-2 WON ($4.40)
Exotics Use: #2 Ivory Empress 15-1 5th
Super Add: #11 Stormy Relations 12-1 9th


<$100 P5 Play:

6: 1-2-4
7: 4-7
8: 6-14
9: 2-4-5-6
10: 2-8-11-14

3x2x2x4x4 = 196 x .50 = $96



BELMONT PARK


POST-SCRATCHES


7th (4:12p): NY-MSW, F&M-3+, 8.5f-IT (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Trust Fund Kid 3-1 WON ($6.20)
Best Value: #6 Triple Latte 10-1 6th
Next Best: #1 Make Mine Chocolate 5-2 2nd
Super Add: #9 Es Mia 6-1 5th


8th: NY-ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 7f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Very well-matched group.. Tough call, and 'first time R. Rodriguez' (as discussed Saturday) complicates matters..

Best Value: #4 Song for Pupcake 5-1 6th
Next Best: #1a In Te Domine 5-2 WON ($10.20)
Exotics Use: #7 Lisa Jean 9-2 2nd
Super Add: #5 Roaring Ghost 12-1 8th


9th: 63rd Prioress (G1), 3yo-F, 6f (DD, Super)

Like Saturday's Suburban, what the field lacks in quantity, it makes up for in intrigue. Franny Freud (7-5) the horse to beat, and has been pointed to this during first half of year, but there's enough other speed signed on to make her earn it every step of the three quarters. Doesn't Baffert's filly (2-1) figure to get the best trip stalking from down inside?

Most Likely: #1 Bonnie Blue Flag 2-1 3rd
Next Best: #3 Franny Freud 7-5 WON ($3.40)
Best Value: #4 Funny Feeling 8-1 5th


10th: NY-MSW, F&M-3+, 6f (Super)

Feels like a slippery race..

Most Likely: #2 SCR
Best Value: #11 Torrone 5-1 WON ($7.00)
Next Best: #5 Gracilia 3-1
Super Add: #1 By M K 6-1

SCR Add: #10 Moshe Diane 6-1 4th


<$100 P4 Play:

7: 1-4-6-9
8: 1-4
9: 1-3
10: 1-5-7-10-11

4x2x2x5 = $80

$1 P4 (4-1-3-11) Paid $110.75



CHURCHILL DOWNS


POST-SCRATCHES


10th (5:26p): 20th Firecracker (G2), 3+, 1m-T (DD, Super)

Very nice Churchill spring-summer meet concludes today with penultimate event drawing an overflow field including '09 Derby winner #2 Mine That Bird (3-1). Lukas trainee looms a logical bet-against in grass bow considering layoff and fact that Birdstone has yet to produce a single turf winner from the 32 that have tried it a total of 64 times..

Best Value: #6 SCR
Next Best: #4 Tizdejavu 4-1 WON ($10.20)
Exotics Use: #9 Inca King 6-1 3rd
Super Add: #7 Public Speaker 8-1 2nd

SCR Add: #13 Wise River 15-1 7th



WOODBINE


POST-SCRATCHES


10th (5:38p): 151st Queen's Plate (R), CND-3yo, 10f (P3, Super)

Wonderfully deep and puzzling edition of North America's oldest classic..

Best Value: #4 Dark Cloud Dancer 15-1 6th
Next Best: #9 Mobilizer 7-2 10th
Exotics Use: #11 Hotep 3-1 2nd
Super Add: #8 Giant's Tomb 12-1 4th


Good luck!
Steve