Derby Trail Forums

Go Back   Derby Trail Forums > Main Forum > Joe Silverio Simulcast Center
Register FAQ Members List Calendar Today's Posts

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #1  
Old 03-27-2010, 06:06 AM
Kasept's Avatar
Kasept Kasept is offline
Steve Byk
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Greenwich, NY
Posts: 43,984
Default 3/27: Meydan; Fair Grounds; Turfway Park; Magna 5

Despite the scratchfest at Gulfstream when turf races were abandoned, P6 paid close to $40k and was hardly impossible. Personal play that had 4 winners was trimmed to $64 post-changes, and when seeing the final return, I was floored. Good news at Hallandale was the P4 hit for $243 and terrific $15.80 win mutuel on "OTT" standout Shift It in the 8th.

At Fair Grounds, concern over Pletcher's Ailalea resulted in my leaving Oaks winner Quiet Temper (4th choice) off the P4 play which meant a miss of the $285 result. Overall, a good day and fun lead-up to today's endless action. Hope you did well!

Meydan early before Fair Grounds and Turfway edge close to their respective meet ends with big Louisiana Derby and Lanes' End Day cards. Last pass for the Magna 5 this week, and suggest you look at Gus Alonso's advice on it as well as he's come perilously close the last 2 weeks.


MEYDAN


POST-SCRATCHES


6th: Duty Free, 9f-T (P3, Super)

Best Value: #11 Alexandros 10-1 14th
Most Likely: #15 Presvis 4-1 11th
Next Best: #1 Imbongi 9-2 3rd
Super Add: #5 Courageous Cat 6-1 9th


7th: Sheema Classic, 12f-T (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #13 Spanish Moon 6-1 3rd
Best Value: #12 Mourilyan 20-1 13th
Next Best: #10 Buena Vista 10-1 2nd
Super Add: #9 Precious Passion 9-2 16th


8th: World Cup, 10f (Super)

Most Likely: #3 Red Desire 10-1 11th
Best Value: #13 Mr. Brock 30-1 8th
Next Best: #2 Gitano Hernando 9-2 6th
Super Add: #10 Richard's Kid 5-1 7th


<$50 P3 Play:

6: 1-11-15
7: 9-10-12-13
8: 2-3-10-13

3x4x4 = $48


Dick Powell's Dubai World Cup Card Analysis



FAIR GROUNDS


POST-SCRATCHES


6th: 59th Kenner, 3+, 6f (P3)

Most Likely: #5 Cash Refund 7-5 WON ($3.40)
Next Best: #4 Euroears 3-1 3rd
Best Value: #3 Grand Traverse 8-1 4th


7th: 38th Crescent City Derby-LA, 3yo, 8.5f (P4, P3, Super)

Best Value: #8 Target Flash 15-1 5th
Next Best: #4 Heavenville 5-1 WON
Exotics Use: #12 Pioneering Native 8-1 3rd
Super Add: #5 Brave Day 20-1 9th


8th: 85th New Orleans H. (G2), 4+, 9f (P6, P3, Super)

No reason to accept short prices here..

Best Value: #7 Star Guitar 10-1 4th
Next Best: #9 Battle Plan 6-1 WON
Exotics Use: #2 Tone It Down 20-1 8th
Super Add: #6 Hold Me Back 8-1 9th


9th: 18th Muniz H. (G2), 4+, 9f-T (P3, Super)

Best Value: #7 Baletti 8-1 8th
Most Likely: #4 El Caballo 4-1 6th
Next Best: #8 Blues Street 3-1 WON
Super Add: #10 Feels All Right 8-1 7th


10th: 97th Louisiana Derby (G2), 3yo, 9f (P4, P3, Super)

Best Value: #9 Stay Put (10-1): Caps Margolis' amazing Nola season.. 5th
Next Best: #4 The Program (10-1): Being ignored in first dirt chance.. 7th
Exotics Use: #3 Fly Down (8-1): Reprize of Zito-Lezcano Gulf heroics.. 9th
Super Add: #2 Mission Impazible (8-1): OP trip impazible; Maragh a plus.. WON


<$75 P4 Play:

7: 3-4-5-8-10-12
8: 2-7-9
9: 4-7
10: 2-3-4-9

6x3x2x4 = 144 x .50 = $72


10th: 3rd Grindstone, 3yo, 7.5f-T (P3, Super)

Most Likely: #6 Workin for Hops 7-5 WON
Best Value: #4 Striking Hight 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #1 Daddy Forty Nice 9-2 6th
Super Add: #3 Night Vision 8-1 5th




TURFWAY PARK


PRE-SCRATCHES


5th: 24th Queen, F&M-4+, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Favorite (#8) is a big underlay here..

Most Likely: #7 Proud Heiress 4-1 2nd
Best Value: #1 Rinterval 8-1 9th
Next Best: #8 Secret Gypsy 7-5 3rd
Super Add: #10 Silver Time 12-1 WON ($42.00)


6th: 16th Hansel, 3yo, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Cool Bullet 2-1 WON ($4.40)
Best Value: #7 Lucky Chuck 6-1 4th
Next Best: #1 Kera's Kitten 5-2 5th
Super Add: #8 Strapping Groom 5-2 2nd


7th: 28th Bourbonette Oaks (G3), 3yo-F, 1m (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Cascading 4-1 9th
Best Value: #4 Helen Belen 6-1 6th
Next Best: #7 Orchestrator 5-1 WON ($16.60)
Super Add: #9 Age of Humor 5-1 2nd


8th: 25th Rushaway, 3yo, 8.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Activity Report 4-1 7th
Best Value: #6 Instant Message 5-1 5th
Next Best: #5 Positive Split 8-5 4th
Super Add: #2 Lonesome Street 5-1 2nd


<$50 P4 Play:

5: 1-4-7-8-10
6: 1-3-4-7-8
7: 2
8: 1-2-5-6

5x5x1x4 = 100 x .50 = $50


9th: 39th Lane's End (G2), 3yo, 9f (P4, P3, DD, Super, Super High 5)

With the Blue Grass, a race that feels marginalized by the advent of synthetics..

Most Likely: #1 Connemara 9-5 3rd
Best Value: #2 Doubles Partner 10-1 8th
Next Best: #7 Northern Giant 5-1 2nd
Super Add: #10 Vow to Wager 20-1 5th
High 5 Play: #8 Letsgetitonmon 20-1 6th



MAGNA 5


POST-SCRATCHES


A-LRL 10th: Johnson Mem., 3+, 9f

Most Likely: #3 Indian Dance 7-5
Best Value: #1 Zarroc 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #4 Eddie C. 2-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #2 Lord Justice 5-2 4th


B-SA 4th: CLM, 4+, 7f

Most Likely: #3 Changing 3-1 6th
Best Value: #7 Partywithlarryz 9-2 4th
Next Best: #2 Mind the Minister 5-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #1 SCR


C-GG 4th: S/ALW, 3yo-F, 1m

Most Likely: #1 Miss Edgar 2-1 6th
Best Value: #4 Profound Elegance 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #3 Category Ten 7-2 7th
Super Add: #6 Dark Delores 4-1 2nd


D-SA 5th: MSW, 4+, 6.5f-T

Most Likely: #2 Danzing Tribal 3-1
Best Value: #4 Thermal Wave 8-1 4th
Next Best: #5 Uncle Greg 4-1 3rd
Super Add: #6 Sweet Maker 7-2 5th


E-GP 10th: 49th Pan American (G3), 4+, 12f-T

Most Likely: #7 Brass Hat 4-1 7th
Best Value: #3 Brother Nick 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #2 Winchester 5-2 4th
Super Add: #5 Never On Sunday 3-1 2nd


<$100 P6 Play:

A: 1-2-3-4
B: 2-3-7
C: 1-4
D: 2
E: 2-3-5-7

4x3x2x1x4 = $96


Good luck!
Steve
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad
A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine
Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.

Last edited by Kasept : 03-28-2010 at 08:49 AM.
Reply With Quote
  #2  
Old 03-27-2010, 08:14 AM
tiznowthegreat tiznowthegreat is offline
Golden Gate
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 360
Default

I thought the ML on Battle Plan was a joke. Does anybdoy think you will even get 3-1 on him, let alone the 6-1 ML?
Reply With Quote
  #3  
Old 03-27-2010, 10:34 AM
Kasept's Avatar
Kasept Kasept is offline
Steve Byk
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Greenwich, NY
Posts: 43,984
Default

Fair Grounds Scratches

1 No Changes

2 Nicky Boy scratched

3 Charlie Cool scratched

4 Cajun Spice scratched; My Bell Boy scratched; B's Lucky Capital jockey changed to Rossi O

5 Citizen scratched; Flying Pegasus scratched; Mambo Galliano scratched

6 No Changes

7 Tensas Cat scratched

8 Big Polk a Dot jockey changed to Bridgmohan S X

9 Red Alert Day (GB) scratched; Stones River scratched

10 No Changes

11 No Changes

12 No Changes

13 Autobeacat scratched; Kiss My Kriss scratched
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad
A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine
Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
Reply With Quote
  #4  
Old 03-27-2010, 11:35 AM
Kasept's Avatar
Kasept Kasept is offline
Steve Byk
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Greenwich, NY
Posts: 43,984
Default

Turfway Scratches

Race 1 #4 Justapremonition, #1 Bujagali

Race 2 #1 On the Way

Race 3 #3 Disco Troop, #6 Sadlers Boot

Race 4 #7 Newport Lulu

Race 7 #8 Delitefully Wild

Race 9 #4 Kettle River

Race 10 #4 Patti's Regal Song

Race 11 #4 Five Star David, #5 Baronial

Race 12 #14 Kitty's Dream, #13 Wicked Ravnina
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad
A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine
Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
Reply With Quote
  #5  
Old 03-27-2010, 11:37 AM
Kasept's Avatar
Kasept Kasept is offline
Steve Byk
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Greenwich, NY
Posts: 43,984
Default

Magna 5 Changes
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad
A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine
Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
Reply With Quote
  #6  
Old 03-27-2010, 02:32 PM
atolunch's Avatar
atolunch atolunch is offline
Oaklawn
 
Join Date: Jul 2007
Posts: 2,227
Default

Great start to the day, nailing the Tri @ Turfway!

Hope you keep it rolling
Reply With Quote
  #7  
Old 03-27-2010, 02:53 PM
Kasept's Avatar
Kasept Kasept is offline
Steve Byk
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Greenwich, NY
Posts: 43,984
Default

Thx Larry.. Glad I spread it out there obviously for the P4. The way Cool Bullet won though makes me think I singled in the wrong spot. Lot of racing yet to come! G/L!
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad
A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine
Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
Reply With Quote
  #8  
Old 03-27-2010, 07:10 PM
rgustafson rgustafson is offline
Bowie
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 224
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by tiznowthegreat
I thought the ML on Battle Plan was a joke. Does anybdoy think you will even get 3-1 on him, let alone the 6-1 ML?
I was at Gulfstream in February for his last race. The horse is a beautiful physical specimen and his breeding is impeccable. I was hoping to get 5/2 but that was a pipedream. If Pletcher can keep him healthy, I think a Grade I win is in his future this year.
Reply With Quote
Reply



Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

vB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Forum Jump


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 04:35 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.6.8
Copyright ©2000 - 2025, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.