Zenyatta sure to be wronged by vindictive number nerds

[The Indomitable DrugS]

The Beyers aren't out for yesterday's SA races yet - but Zenyatta ran 6 points faster than Sidney's Candy did in his San Felipe victory.

The longshot maiden Stephen's Got Hope - who was 7th in a MSW race last time out - finished 5th beaten 5 lengths behind Sidney's Candy.

Erebia finished dead last of 7 in Sidney's Candys race - beaten all of 5.75 lengths. His previous lifetime best figure is 80.

Lets assume Erebia ran well enough while finishing last to equal his best lifetime number of 80 - that would give Sidney's Candy a 90 and Zenyatta a 96.

Dance To My Tune would get a 94 for running 2nd to Zenyatta - which would be the best figure of her life in career start #30.

In fact, Pretty Kathrine would get a 86 for finishing 7th. That would mean that she also ran a lifetime best number - by open lengths - in career start #16 - while only managing to beat a single horse in a field of eight.

In other words ... it's pretty impossible to justify Zenyatta getting anything more than a 96. Even that number is really stretching it.

She's obviously going to get a lower number in that glorified workout than the 100 RA got yesterday in defeat. I can only imagine the outrage.

John Shirreffs is a God.

[SOREHOOF]

I still believe that synthetic Beyers don't mean squat when handicapping a race.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

If you say it about Beyers - you're saying it about Thoro-Graphs and Ragozins and everyone elses figures as well.

They're basically all the same ... and RA is going to get a faster number in defeat on everyones figures because she ran faster.

Even though Zenyatta got a great pace setup - a lot of people are going to make a case that Zenyatta could have run faster if she was put to an all-out drive.

Just like a lot of people are going to make a case that RA has a right to improve significantly because she hadn't run in over a half year - and had a light worktab for a terrible layoff trainer.

[johnny pinwheel]

Originally Posted by SOREHOOF

I still believe that synthetic Beyers don't mean squat when handicapping a race.

i agree, those numbers mean squat when they change tracks too. i never put too much faith in the "numbers" anyway. will they give you some winners ? yes. but, learning how to read the racing form and anticipate outcomes of the way a race is going to run is way more important. anyone with any horse sense knew that rachel would have a hard time coming back after 6 and 1/2 months. shes a front end kind of horse that had a grueling schedule. the fact of the matter is she may never come back to that form again. i've been doing this for so long and have seen many horses go this route, especially the fillies and mares. i'm glad there are numbers people because it gives alot of overlays. every surface is different and every horse reacts differently to the surface. trying to correspond some sort of number to the performance and then projecting it to the next race is fine at the same meet. when the surface changes those numbers are just about worthless. zenyatta runs to win not for numbers. she sits back and exerts just enough energy to pass every one. if the race is slow she wins "slow", but as we've seen when the competition is better she can step up her game. a horse with her style and brains is very, very hard to beat. the number she gets means nothing.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by johnny pinwheel

i never put too much faith in the "numbers" anyway. will they give you some winners ?

Anyone who uses them as the sole tool for "giving winners" is certainly going to lose money betting. They'll lose about 3/4 or 7/8 of the takeout over the long run.

They tell you absolutely nothing other than how fast the final time of the race was from start to finish - with the speed of the racing surface factored in.

Anyone who thinks they aren't important when gauging horses from different circuits is out of their mind.

[smuthg]

Zenyatta -102 per a DRF tweet.

[northeastbound123]

Originally Posted by smuthg

Zenyatta -102 per a DRF tweet.

I'm shocked, never thought she would break 100

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by smuthg

Zenyatta -102 per a DRF tweet.

That's a downright horrible figure .. but I love it when we're off by that much.

Basically ... if you believe that Zenyatta ran a 102 today .. you believe that every single horse she beat ran by far the best race of their lives. You also have to believe that soundly beaten horses (behind a slow pace no less) in the San Felipe surged to career best numbers.

If Zenyatta gets a 102 ...

* 2nd place Dance to My Tune runs the best race of her life by 5 full lengths in career start #30. She gets a 100

* 3rd place Floating Heart runs the best race of her life by 5 full lengths.

* 4th place Striking Dancer runs the best race of her life by 4 full lengths. And 7 full lengths better than her 2nd best prior race.

* 5th place Pretty Unusual runs the best race of her life by 4 full lengths.

* 6th place Made For Magic - in career start #30 - runs the best race of her life

* 7th place Pretty Kathrine - while only managing to beat a single horse - ran the best race of her life by 4.5 lengths.

* 8th and last place finisher Gripsholm Castle - despite taking up sharply - runs the same figure while last at 9/1 odds today that she did while a dream trip 2nd at 18/1 odds in the Grade 2 La Canada last time out.

I think the figure maker did a wonderful job of not showing an Anti West Coast Bias or anti synthetic bias. It's very important to not make hopelessly stupid people think you might be biased in some way.

I just feel sorry for any bettors who will take the figures of the horses Zenyatta beat at face value when these horses run back. They'll all be "dropping in class" out of a "Grade 1" with "big figures" .. nice collection of future bet againsts.

[smuthg]

don't shoot the messenger... Even if I did quote a "tweet".

[10 pnt move up]

I came up with 92 give or take a point and thats was just based on the track and not looking at pp's.

so the winner of the third race, a career mdn, got around a 105?

The figures are meaningless, pretty much they are made up. Best is to use the last furlong come home time and then just old fashioned trip handicapping.

I have heard many references to RA was not geared for yesterday....and Shirreffs had Zenyatta cranked for the santa margarita?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by smuthg

don't shoot the messenger... Even if I did quote a "tweet".

Are you kidding!? It's the best news I've heard all morning. I'd rather be way off than dead on their number.

I really need to get a life. I'm trying to watch the OBS March under-tack show live on my comp .. and somethings not working.

[parsixfarms]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I think the figure maker did a wonderful job of not showing an Anti West Coast Bias or anti synthetic bias. It's very important to not make hopelessly stupid people think you might be biased in some way.

It may also have something to do with trying to preserve devotees' faith in their figures. If a speed figure is supposed to represent an accurate reflection of a horse's performance, I think they'd be hard pressed to have Rachel Alexandra come in with a figure higher than Zenyatta. This is especially the case when a Fair Grounds allowance race yesterday produced an identical time to the New Orleans Ladies, off a 49.1 half.

[cmorioles]

Whoever is making Beyers for SoCal routes is completely clueless, and has been for a long time.

[randallscott35]

Helps the price on Rachel.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by parsixfarms

It may also have something to do with trying to preserve devotees' faith in their figures. If a speed figure is supposed to represent an accurate reflection of a horse's performance, I think they'd be hard pressed to have Rachel Alexandra come in with a figure higher than Zenyatta. This is especially the case when a Fair Grounds allowance race yesterday produced an identical time to the New Orleans Ladies, off a 49.1 half.

Nonsense. The Zardana-RA figure is rock solid.

The winner of the allowance race freaked and ran huge.

He ran multiple triple digit Beyers at Fair Grounds last year .. and was 2nd beaten just a length to Macho Again in the Grade 2 New Orleans Handicap.

They have the 2nd place horse in that alw race pairing up - the 3rd place horse going slightly backwards - and the 4th place horse going way backwards. It was a 7 horse field.

And in the days other route race .. they have a perfect trip 4/5 favorite winner in an 11 horse field winning with a 37.

People can pretend that Zardana isn't a real horse on dirt all they want. She's now 4-for-4 on the surface with her 4 wins coming by a combined 40 lengths.

[alysheba4]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Anyone who uses them as the sole tool for "giving winners" is certainly going to lose money betting. They'll lose about 3/4 or 7/8 of the takeout over the long run.

They tell you absolutely nothing other than how fast the final time of the race was from start to finish - with the speed of the racing surface factored in.

Anyone who thinks they aren't important when gauging horses from different circuits is out of their mind.

.....i cant remember the beyers rachael got with her bang up race over the synthetic but it seems all horses get low figs over the stuff....i mean sydney got less than a 100 going 20 and change

[freddymo]

So what's the big deal that Rachel was 4 or 5 lengths slower then she will be 4 weeks? She ran ok, wasn't 100% fit, and needs some more work to get back to herself. Running a 100 fig off the bench and being at 90% is far from worrisome? I also think that she could have won yesterday if Borel would have sent her earlier...so if she was 1length faster all would be well in horsey land?

[asudevil]

Current matchup for Apple Blossom:

Zenyatta -170
Rachel + 150

[alysheba4]

Originally Posted by freddymo

So what's the big deal that Rachel was 4 or 5 lengths slower then she will be 4 weeks? She ran ok, wasn't 100% fit, and needs some more work to get back to herself. Running a 100 fig off the bench and being at 90% is far from worrisome? I also think that she could have won yesterday if Borel would have sent her earlier...so if she was 1length faster all would be well in horsey land?

.....i agree, i thought he strangled her.

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

That's a downright horrible figure .. but I love it when we're off by that much.

Basically ... if you believe that Zenyatta ran a 102 today .. you believe that every single horse she beat ran by far the best race of their lives. You also have to believe that soundly beaten horses (behind a slow pace no less) in the San Felipe surged to career best numbers.

If Zenyatta gets a 102 ...

* 2nd place Dance to My Tune runs the best race of her life by 5 full lengths in career start #30. She gets a 100

* 3rd place Floating Heart runs the best race of her life by 5 full lengths.

* 4th place Striking Dancer runs the best race of her life by 4 full lengths. And 7 full lengths better than her 2nd best prior race.

* 5th place Pretty Unusual runs the best race of her life by 4 full lengths.

* 6th place Made For Magic - in career start #30 - runs the best race of her life

* 7th place Pretty Kathrine - while only managing to beat a single horse - ran the best race of her life by 4.5 lengths.

* 8th and last place finisher Gripsholm Castle - despite taking up sharply - runs the same figure while last at 9/1 odds today that she did while a dream trip 2nd at 18/1 odds in the Grade 2 La Canada last time out.

I think the figure maker did a wonderful job of not showing an Anti West Coast Bias or anti synthetic bias. It's very important to not make hopelessly stupid people think you might be biased in some way.

I just feel sorry for any bettors who will take the figures of the horses Zenyatta beat at face value when these horses run back. They'll all be "dropping in class" out of a "Grade 1" with "big figures" .. nice collection of future bet againsts.

Kindly requesting permission to post this elsewhere if it comes up?