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#1
08-03-2009, 03:30 AM
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8/3: Saratoga (Day 6/Amsterdam)
Spa Sunday couldn't match Saturday's intensity as lousy weather dulled the crowd. Still struggling to find P4 paydirt, but isoltated exotic hits and/or OK P3's continue to justify the efforts. Opener's $67 tri and $93 1st-3rd P3 got the day going, but Parisella omission in the 5th quashed my early quad try. Schosberg-Fried runaway in the 6th got P3's going again though, and 6th-8th ($80) and 7th-9th ($70) returns felt overlaid given the relatively easy to find winners.
Was assured of a nice profit on the day in the Fourstardave as the tabs produced $172.75 triple and $819 super in a very exciting affair. For whatever reason, the 'Dave' has been a very productive spot for me personally, as a Dr. Kashnikow-Tubrok exacta 10+ years ago provided a similar bonanza, and there have been 1 or 2 other nice hits in this lawn tussle since then. Hope you did well! Week One concludes Monday with a nice card that likely will lose some, or all, of its' grass events thanks to a driving downpour before Sunday's nightcap. Seth Merrow and I are doing 'Cal to the Post' this morning on Capital OTB-TV 12 this morning at 10:30. Stream available at http://www.capitalotb.com. SARATOGA RACE COURSE POST-SCRATCHES 1st: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 6f (P3, DD, Super) Most Likely: #7 Gracious Victory 3-1 3rd Next Best: #1 Sophisticated Lass 7-2 WON Exotics Use: #2 O'Sotopretty 4-1 2nd Super Add: #5 No Rhyme or Reason 10-1 4th $1 Exacta (1-2) Paid $18.10 $1 Trifecta (1-2-7) Paid $45.50 $1 Superfecta (1-2-7-5) Paid $414.50 2nd: NYB-MSW, 2yo, 6f (P4, P3, DD) Most Likely: #2 Most Happy Fella 2-1 6th Best Value: #9 Elsaroarin 8-1 3rd Next Best: #1e Pletcher entry 5-1 WON Exotics Use: #6 Wise Stop 8-1 2nd $1 Exacta (1-6) Paid $75.50 $1 Trifecta (1-6-9) Paid $305 3rd: MSW, 2yo, 5.5f (P3, DD, Super) Off the turf... Most Likely: #8 SCR Best Value: #6 Overlap 10-1 WON Next Best: #2 King Kitten 5-2 5th Super Add: #1a/1x Pletcher entry 7-2 2nd $2 Exacta (6-1) Paid $43.25 $1 Pick 3 (1-1-6) 3 Correct Paid $257.00 4th: MSW, 3+, 12f-IT (P3, DD, Super) Taking the stance that none of the ML favorites are particularly good in oddball race.. Best Value: #7 Lieutenant 12-1 5th Most Likely: #8 Whirling Thunder 5-1 6th Next Best: #6 Chapin Beach 10-1 2nd Super Add: #1 En Fuego 4-1 4th 5th: MSW, 2yo-F, 8.5f (P6, P3, DD) Off the turf.. OFF THE TURF: 5/WON-9/2nd-10-4 <$75 P4 Play: 2: 1-2-7-9 3: 1-2-6 4: 1-2-3-6-7-8 5: 5 4x3x6x1 = $72 $1 Pick 4 (1-6-3-1/2/5/6/11) Paid $1,434 6th: Fleet Indian, F&M-3+, 7f (P4, P3, DD, Super) Most Likely: #8 Dance Gal Dance 5-2 WON Best Value: #9 SCR Next Best: #7 Karakorum Fugitive 7-2 3rd Super Add: #6 Silvercup Baby 10-1 5th 7th: OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super) Most Likely: #9 Kristi With a K 7-2 3rd Best Value: #4 Pull Dancer 5-1 WON Next Best: #12 La Mousse 8-1 4th Super Add: #7 Esperanza d'Oro 12-1 10th 8th: 17th Amsterdam (Gr. II), 3yo, 6.5f (P3, DD) Most Likely: #4 Quality Road 6-5 WON Next Best: #1 Everyday Heroes 5-2 5th Exotics Use: #6 Capt. Candyman Can 7-2 2nd 9th: Tap the Admiral, 3yo, 1m-IT (DD, Super) Scratch Mott's Tamborim who has been sold.. Most Likely: #1 Royal Vindication 5-1 6th Best Value: #9 Together Indy 12-1 5th Next Best: #5 Jack Spratt 12-1 3rd Super Add: #2 Golden Mexico 6-1 2nd 10th: MDN CLM, 3+, 6f (Super) Most Likely: #1 Lone Cypress 2-1 3rd Best Value: #2 Johnny's Surprise 12-1 5th Next Best: #4 Comeback 15-1 4th Exotics Use: #8 True That 6-1 9th Super Add: #3 Driven by Saarland 6-1 7th <$75 P4 Play: 7: 3-4-9 8: 1-4-6 9: 1-9 10: 1-2-4-8 3x3x2x4 = $72 Good luck! Steve
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984. Last edited by Kasept : 08-04-2009 at 09:00 AM. 
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#2
08-03-2009, 07:24 AM
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the 3rd and the 5th are off the turf today.... by post time the maintrack should be fast
__________________
....stay lady stay...stay while the night is still ahead... http://www.playlist.com/playlist/15640118795/standalone
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#4
08-03-2009, 11:41 AM
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I see they entered la mousse in the 7th, he was obviously keen to run when he arrived there at the help kiosk 5 weeks early. Also: RIP Papoose la Moose.......broke down @SR yesterday.
__________________
"Let the whiners and lazy cry about how impossible "they've" made it to win at this game." - Steve Byk Last edited by dagolfer33 : 08-03-2009 at 11:52 AM.
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#6
08-03-2009, 01:37 PM
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I like the 6 in this 4th but I like how Steve covered a bunch. What a bizarro race and the board definitely reflects that.
__________________
please use generalizations and non-truths when arguing your side, thank you
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#10
08-03-2009, 02:26 PM
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Nicely done SB!!!!!!!!!!I would say a sweep of the pk4s is in order for today.
__________________
"Let the whiners and lazy cry about how impossible "they've" made it to win at this game." - Steve Byk
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#14
08-03-2009, 02:59 PM
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Steve, very nice hit Pick 4.
Played your choices for the 4th-6th pick 3. Bet $24 won $90 giving me more to play with today. Thanks for your help.
__________________
In the Picnic area at Monmouth Park. Haskell 2008
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#15
08-03-2009, 03:31 PM
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Thanks Steve for the shoutout on the show concerning my silly moose comment, I happened to catch it when I was out making my afternoon bank run!!!!!!!!
__________________
"Let the whiners and lazy cry about how impossible "they've" made it to win at this game." - Steve Byk
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#16
08-03-2009, 03:35 PM
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Think you have a good chance at both Pick 4s today actually.
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#20
08-04-2009, 07:05 AM
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Thanks all! Was a very nice day and great way to close out the week. As I said on the OTB show with Seth Merrow Monday, you have to stay the course in this meet as the profit-generating hits will come. I was treading water all week with a few healthy scores that kept the confidence level up, and then a day like Monday puts you well ahead. If you recall, I did little right the first 2+ weeks of the meet last year before the $11k P4 and $4k in P3's.
Hope all did well... Take a breather today and back at it Wednesday with a beautiful weather sequence lying ahead.
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
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