First Timer in Maiden Claimer Question

[hockey2315]

I’ve been wondering about something for a while and was hoping someone (Chuck maybe) could give some insight.

I’ll use Race 7 at Calder today as my example - a $32K claimer for two-year-old fillies. Here’s the chart: http://www.drf.com/drfPDFChartRacesI...=20090614&RN=7

The 2, Dreaming Prayers, was a first time starter for trainer Jose Garoffalo - who was 0-for-27 in 2009 before the race. Her works didn’t hint at any ability, and she only sold for $12K ($10,500 less than her sire Songandaprayer’s stud fee). Her dam finished off the board in her only career start and this was her first foal to race.

Despite her lack of appeal, or at least unclear ability based strictly on the PPs, Dreaming Prayers was sent off at even money (lower for much of the betting) and won in hand by 9, the easiest of winners. Granted, there wasn’t much apparent talent in the race and she had a few things going for her (sire good w/ FTS, 5F work, very high T/J stats, and a high Tomlinson), but there was NO possible way that she deserved to be even money if all you had to go on was the program or even other more sophisticated information. The only rational explanation for her odds and her subsequent performance that makes any sense is that she took a large amount “barn money” or whatever you want to call it. Based strictly on the action she took, it would be a pretty fair assumption to expect her to run well or exceedingly well for the level and she ran like a horse that was ready and “supposed to win.”

So, my question is, would it be possible or feasible to watch for these types of clues on the board and claim a horse like this? Would the potential reward outweigh the risk (I’m sure there’s always a risk that she was ready to win TODAY, but could fall apart tomorrow)? Is the barn involved risking losing a potentially lucrative prospect by revealing their hand at the windows? Obviously I realize that this horse isn’t going to turn out to be champion or anything, but it would seem that she is surely worth a fair amount more than the $32K you could have taken her for today and I’d be shocked if she doesn’t earn a lot more than that in her career barring an injury or some other unforeseen circumstance. Is this even a possible logistically with the way claims are made? I kind of doubt it. Just something I’ve always been curious about. . .