Preakness win odds at TheGreek and Pinnacle

[Dunbar]

Here are the odds currently offered at TheGreek and Pinnacle. Pinnacle stipulates that all 13 must start for the bet to be action. TheGreek does not.

Horse TheGreek Pinnacle
Big Drama 10.15 7.20
Mine That Bird 8.65 8.55
Musket Man 10.15 11.00
Luv Gov 52.5 110
Friesen Fire 6.45 7.55
Terrain 18.15 38.00
Papa Clem 12.15 14.00
General Quarters 16.15 21.00
Pioneerof the Nile 6.45 4.45
Flying Private 52.5 75.00
Take the Points 25.5 29.50
Tone It Down 30.5 74.00
Rachel Alexandra 1.85 1.70

--Dunbar

[rontheman1964]

Hmmm, is Terrain getting played at The Greek???

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by rontheman1964

Hmmm, is Terrain getting played at The Greek???

I didn't record the first odds I saw there. But Mine That Bird got a little play. I remember it opened at the same 10.15-1 as Big Drama and Musket Man.

There are more changes as of this morning. Unfortunately, TheGreek seems to only know how to lower odds, and doesn't compensate by raising some other horse's odds. Odds on Big Drama dropped minutely. Odds on RA dropped from 1.85 to 1.7.

BUT, at Pinnacle RA is up to 1.99-1. Big Drama is also up at Pinnacle. Freisan Fire is down a little. General Quarters is down a lot, now in line with TheGreek's odds. Perhaps the biggest surprise is that Take The Points is dowin to 26.68-1. Maybe some sports bettors can't resist the name.

The Pinnacle odds I posted last night had a takeout of 16%. The revised Pinnacle odds have a 13% takeout.

TheGreek now has higher odds than Pinny on just 3 horses, but the combined "best odds" line using those two books has a takeout of just 8.4%.

If you include best odds from 5Dimes, you get a combined line with a takeout of just 7.7%. Here's that line:

Big Drama 10, FiveD
Mine That Bird 9, FiveD
Musket Man 11, Pinn
Luv Gov 110, Pinn
Friesen Fire 7.16, Pinn
Terrain 40, FiveD
Papa Clem 14, Pinn
General Quarters 17, FiveD
Pioneerof the Nile 6.45, TheGreek
Flying Private 75, Pinn
Take the Points 26.68, Pinn
Tone It Down 74, Pinn
Rachel Alexandra 1.99, Pinn

Friesan Fire may be available at Bodog at 8-1 later this morning. Right now all Preakness odds and props say "closed for action", but that may be an overnight precaution.

World Sports Exchange (wsex.com) doesn't have win odds, but it has some interesting matchups. I rather like the RA side of these two, especially the first one:

Outcome Lengths Money Line
RACHEL ALEXANDRA -1.0 -115
PIONEER OF THE NILE +1.0 -115

Outcome Lengths Money Line
RACHEL ALEXANDRA -2.5 -115
MUSKET MAN +2.5 -115

In the first one, you need Rachel to finish more than 1 length in front of POTN to win the bet. (exactly one length is a push). You are betting $115 to win $100 (ie, you collect $215 if you win).

--Dunbar

[Dunbar]

Oddly, even though TheGreek has RA at 1.7-1 in its list of "Odds to win", it has a separate prop with odds of 2-1:

Will the Filly win the Preakness Stakes
121 Yes +200
122 No -240

Go figure.

--Dunbar

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

If you include best odds from 5Dimes, you get a combined line with a takeout of just 7.7%. Here's that line:

Big Drama 10, FiveD
Mine That Bird 9, FiveD
Musket Man 11, Pinn
Luv Gov 110, Pinn
Friesen Fire 7.16, Pinn
Terrain 40, FiveD
Papa Clem 14, Pinn
General Quarters 17, FiveD
Pioneerof the Nile 6.45, TheGreek
Flying Private 75, Pinn
Take the Points 26.68, Pinn
Tone It Down 74, Pinn
Rachel Alexandra 1.99, Pinn

Here's the best odds at those 3 books as of a few minutes ago. These odds combine to make a 6.7% takeout.

Big Drama 10.81 Pinn
Mine That Bird 8.05 Greek
Musket Man 12.5 FiveDimes
Luv Gov 138.64 Pinn
Friesen Fire 7.5 FiveDimes
Terrain 28 FiveDimes
Papa Clem 19 FiveDimes
General Quarters 25 FiveDimes
Pioneerof the Nile 6.25 Greek
Flying Private 103.23 Pinn
Take the Points 30 FiveDimes
Tone It Down 90.04 Pinn
Rachel Alexandra 1.75 Greek

I'm not optimistic about seeing 2-1 on RA in the parimutuals.

--Dunbar