Pick 4 Popularity

[philcski]

There were several guaranteed and/or prominent pick 4's today. The handle was quite strong, other than NYRA (which can be explained by bad weather and horrible fields.) I've put a lot of my handle into pick 4's lately as they fit my style of play best. Seems to me the .50 minimum helps handle significantly, and today's results bear that out- even if you account for this being Keeneland's biggest day, their numbers are through the roof. Anybody else a pick 4 player?

Aqueduct early: $159k handle, pays $2,789 (for $2)
Aqueduct late: $250k guarantee, $236k handle, pays $2,442

Keeneland early: $167k handle, pays $10,744
Keeneland all-stakes: $200k guarantee, $618k handle, pays $3,008
Keeneland late: $258k handle, pays $7,584

Santa Anita early: $171k handle, pays $222
Santa Anita late: $400k guarantee, $402k handle, pays $2,280

Oaklawn: $148k handle, pays $8,535

[Travis Stone]

50-cent mins on P4's help in my opinion as they don't directly affect other pools whereas 10-cent supers affect's the tri pool and the exacta pool to a lesser extent.

But in terms of general handle weekend warrior-like handicappers (those playing on days like today) love a single. Forever Together was a single on paper today to these folks. Toss a 50-cent min and you've got a cheap pick three. That's hard for budget-minded handicappers to toss-up when there is perceived jackpot potential in the wager.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

50-cent mins on P4's help in my opinion as they don't directly affect other pools whereas 10-cent supers affect's the tri pool and the exacta pool to a lesser extent.

But in terms of general handle weekend warrior-like handicappers (those playing on days like today) love a single. Forever Together was a single on paper today to these folks. Toss a 50-cent min and you've got a cheap pick three. That's hard for budget-minded handicappers to toss-up when there is perceived jackpot potential in the wager.

This is true... and the rest of the races in the sequence were very intriguing as well. However, $618k is a monster number any way you cut it.

Interestingly enough though... Forever Together didn't open as the favorite. She was 3/1 at the first click- I almost choked on my soda. I would have bet everything I owned on her at that price.

[Travis Stone]

Originally Posted by philcski

Interestingly enough though... Forever Together didn't open as the favorite. She was 3/1 at the first click- I almost choked on my soda. I would have bet everything I owned on her at that price.

Keeneland had goofy opening odds all day...

[VOL JACK]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

50-cent mins on P4's help in my opinion as they don't directly affect other pools whereas 10-cent supers affect's the tri pool and the exacta pool to a lesser extent.

But in terms of general handle weekend warrior-like handicappers (those playing on days like today) love a single. Forever Together was a single on paper today to these folks. Toss a 50-cent min and you've got a cheap pick three. That's hard for budget-minded handicappers to toss-up when there is perceived jackpot potential in the wager.

Too bad that I took the approach that beating 4ever was the way to make the p4 pay.
I singled the filly that opened up at 8-5 off a 5-1 ML.
Nailed the other 3 legs. Only used Hold Me Back and GQ in the big race.
Thankfully the Bluegrass Exacta made the day worthwhile.

[Bigsmc]

Originally Posted by philcski

Anybody else a pick 4 player?

Yes, and I had one of the most frustrating days of my wagering life today.

[Suffolk Shippers]

Originally Posted by Bigsmc

Yes, and I had one of the most frustrating days of my wagering life today.

Same here. I misfired on all three KEE pick fours.

[PatCummings]

I had a feeling that today could be the day that NYRA misses the guarantee. The weather didn't help either.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by philcski

There were several guaranteed and/or prominent pick 4's today. The handle was quite strong, other than NYRA (which can be explained by bad weather and horrible fields.) I've put a lot of my handle into pick 4's lately as they fit my style of play best. Seems to me the .50 minimum helps handle significantly, and today's results bear that out- even if you account for this being Keeneland's biggest day, their numbers are through the roof. Anybody else a pick 4 player?

Aqueduct early: $159k handle, pays $2,789 (for $2)
Aqueduct late: $250k guarantee, $236k handle, pays $2,442

Keeneland early: $167k handle, pays $10,744
Keeneland all-stakes: $200k guarantee, $618k handle, pays $3,008
Keeneland late: $258k handle, pays $7,584

Santa Anita early: $171k handle, pays $222
Santa Anita late: $400k guarantee, $402k handle, pays $2,280

Oaklawn: $148k handle, pays $8,535

I love 50 cent minimum P4s. It really allows someone without a huge budget to be able to have some fun using the ABC method as you can do your A ticket for $2, A/Bs for a $1, and A/Cs for 50 cents. I hate synthetics and yet the all stakes P4 at Keeneland on Saturday is the first time I've bet off track since before the Breeders Cup.

[tiznowthegreat]

Just playing the what if game.

Is there anyway to tell what the early P4 on Saturday at Keeneland would have paid if the 11 had won the 5th race?

[philcski]

Originally Posted by tiznowthegreat

Just playing the what if game.

Is there anyway to tell what the early P4 on Saturday at Keeneland would have paid if the 11 had won the 5th race?

about $6k for 50 cents.

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by philcski

Anybody else a pick 4 player?

Pretty much my favorite bet by a mile.

[VOL JACK]

I've found I bet more when I can bet it for fiddy cent.
I get alot more coverage and feel more likely of course to hit the p4.

[parsixfarms]

Given Charlie Hayward's statements on the dime superfecta stimulating handle (http://thoroughbredtimes.com/nationa...g-strong.aspx), it continues to amaze me why NYRA refuses to permit its patrons to bet a $.50 pic-4 (either on its live product or any simulcast signal, even where the host track permits the fractional wager). I wonder if Churchill lowering the minimum for its upcoming meet may have any impact.

[2MinsToPost]

Look at the 50 cent payoff here and the 3 favorites. Whats not to love.

6th Race

Next Post 4:06 Off: 3:35 | 6 Furlongs | 4 Year Olds And Up | Allowance | Purse: $53,675

# Horse Jockey Weight Win Place Show
6 New Believer Douglas R R 118 5.60 3.40 2.60
1 Golden Weekend Leparoux J R 118 5.40 3.40
2 Escrow Theriot H J II 118 3.80


Times in 5ths: :221 :451 :571 1:101

Times in 100ths: :22.35 :45.20 :57.38 1:10.27

Also ran: Jockey Ridge, Fort Apache Star, Hail to Shiloh and Political Nonsense

Winning Trainer: Ward Wesley A - Owner: Ward Wesley A.

$2 Exacta (6-1) Paid $32.40

$2 Trifecta (6-1-2) Paid $118.80

10 CENT Superfecta (6-1-2-5) Paid $14.94

$2 Pick 3 (4-7-6) 3 Correct Paid $134.40 Pick 3 Pool $31,628

$2 Daily Double (7-6) Paid $32.40 Daily Double Pool $13,953


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7th Race

Next Post 4:36 Off: 4:06 | 1 1/16 Miles (Turf) | 3 Year Olds | Allowance | Purse: $54,000

# Horse Jockey Weight Win Place Show
7 Magical Affair Leparoux J R 121 6.20 3.60 3.00
6 Elision Mena M 119 5.40 3.60
5 Lady Shakespeare Prado E S 116 5.80


Times in 5ths: :232 :471 1:123 1:374 1:441

Times in 100ths: :23.46 :47.28 1:12.66 1:37.84 1:44.22

Scratched: Bambolina, Gal Aloud and Janou

Also ran: Satans Quick Chick, Pari, Tears of Jupiter, Sugarandice, Direct Line, True Birkin, Alexandrite Ring and Spring Party

Winning Trainer: Matz Michael R - Owner: Chiefswood Stable

$2 Exacta (7-6) Paid $37.20

$2 Trifecta (7-6-5) Paid $218.00

10 CENT Superfecta (7-6-5-12) Paid $144.25

$2 Pick 3 (7-6-7) 3 Correct Paid $225.20 Pick 3 Pool $35,352

$2 Daily Double (6-7) Paid $17.80 Daily Double Pool $18,135


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8th Race
Beaumont S. (G2)

Next Post 5:07 Off: 4:36 | About 7 Furlongs | 3 Year Olds | Stakes | Purse: $150,000

# Horse Jockey Weight Win Place Show
5 War Kill Leparoux J R 117 35.40 7.80 5.40
3 Selva Albarado R J 117 3.60 4.00
2 Consequence Velazquez J R 117 7.80


Times in 5ths: :23 :453 1:092 1:254

Times in 100ths: :23.19 :45.77 1:09.58 1:25.97

Scratched: No Speed Limit

Also ran: Evita Argentina, Dave's Revenge and Loveyou Everybody

Winning Trainer: McPeek Kenneth G - Owner: Dixiana Stables, Inc.

$2 Exacta (5-3) Paid $106.60

$2 Trifecta (5-3-2) Paid $606.80

10 CENT Superfecta (5-3-2-1) Paid $46.42

$2 Pick 3 (6-7-5) 3 Correct Paid $456.80 Pick 3 Pool $24,104

$2 Daily Double (7-5) Paid $84.60 Daily Double Pool $17,747


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9th Race

Off: 5:07 | 1 1/16 Miles | 4 Year Olds And Up | Maiden Special Weight | Purse: $50,000

# Horse Jockey Weight Win Place Show
1 With Flying Colors Gomez G K 121 5.80 3.60 3.20
8 Choice Play Leparoux J R 121 4.20 3.40
2 Sapphiresndiamonds Albarado R J 121 6.80


Times in 5ths: :24 :473 1:122 1:381 1:443

Times in 100ths: :24.09 :47.77 1:12.57 1:38.37 1:44.76

Also ran: Sealed Bid, Cape Cod Bay, Nandi, Paisley, Alley Theater, Bk's Sis' Birthday, Mosaic, Happenstance and Game (FR)

Winning Trainer: McGaughey III Claude R - Owner: Phipps Stable

$2 Exacta (1-8) Paid $26.00

$2 Trifecta (1-8-2) Paid $174.00

10 CENT Superfecta (1-8-2-11) Paid $92.93

$2 Daily Double (5-1) Paid $160.40 Daily Double Pool $60,948

$2 Pick 3 (7-5-1) 3 Correct Paid $455.40 Pick 3 Pool $47,524

50 CENT Pick 4 (6-3/7/11/14-5-1) 4 Correct Paid $482.75 Pick 4 Pool $141,181

$2 Pick 6 (4-7-6-3/7/11/14-5-1) 5 Correct Paid $120.40 Pick 6 Pool

$2 Pick 6 (4-7-6-3/7/11/14-5-1) 6 Correct Paid $28,480.80 Pick 6 Pool $18,458

$1 Super High Five (1-8-2-11-4) Paid $3,760.50




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