4/8: Keeneland (4th-9th)

[Kasept]

Fun Saturday of coast to coast action highlighted by the formful Triple Crown preps. Had elements of a very good day in place but failed to connect a couple of dots including falling short of including Giant Moon in AQU P4 play. Gozzip Girl's game effort in the Ashland at $20 was another result that had makings of a bankroll bulger but missed. Hope you did well and the action got you excited for another great week leading up to the Blue Grass and Arkansas Derby...


KEENELAND


POST-SCRATCHES


4th: ALW/N1X, 4+, 1m-T (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Rock in Bage 8-5 2nd
Best Value: #6 Cajun Prize 6-1 4th
Next Best:#4 Plenty Coups 9-5 WON
Super Add: #1 King Carter 15-1 3rd

$1 Exacta (4-5) Paid $7.60
$1 Trifecta (4-5-1) Paid $69.50
$1 Superfecta (4-5-1-6) Paid $299.90


5th: MSW, 3yo, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Very tough dash with confusing mix of lightly raced or FTS.. Adding Jones' 12 to multi-race plays as cover (2nd)..

Most Likely: #6 King Andrew 4-1: 1st and 3rd career tries strong; Adds blinks.. 4th
Best Value: #3 Here Comes Ben 12-1: Lopresti's last 2 FTS hit at 13-1 and 26-1.. 3rd
Next Best: #7 Flavor 5-1: Improving Stall red gets Gomez; Faced good ones.. WON
Super Add: #4 Tiz King 15-1 5th


6th: ALW/N1X, 4+, 6f (.50 P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Jockey Ridge 3-1: Tagg colt hasn't really fulfilled promise.. 4th
Next Best: #3 Political Nonsense 8-5: Tough to take price on Lael DepMin away 10 months.. 7th
Best Value: #1 Golden Weekend 5-1 2nd
Super Add: #6 New Believer 4-1 WON


7th: ALW/N1X, 3yo-F, 8.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #6 Elision 6-1: Featured last night on ATR; Pair up of last wins.. 2nd
Most Likely: #7 Magical Affair 5-2: Boosted prospects with MDN break in turf debut.. WON
Best Value: #8 Spring Party 7-2 11th
Super Add: #4 True Birkin 8-1 9th


8th: Beaumont (Gr. II), 3yo-F, 7f (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Evita Argentina 2-1: Slight 'class' edge; Beat the boys in San Vincente.. 4th
Next Best: #3 Selva 5-2: Carroll miss faces stern pace pressure.. 2nd
Best Value: #6 Love You Everybody 5-1: Steady a.m. preps for return; Versatile gears.. 6th
Super Add: #2 Consequence 5-1 3rd


9th: MSW, F&M-4+, 8.5f (Super High 5)

$14k Hi-5 C/O.. (I think it's $14k.. Will confirm..)

Most Likely: #8 Choice Play 4-1 2nd
Best Value: #4 Cape Cod Bay 6-1 5th
Next Best: #1 With Flying Colors 3-1 WON
Exotics Use: #10 Alley Theater 12-1 8th
High 5 Play: #11 Sealed Bid 8-1 4th


<$75 P4 Play:

6: 1-3-5-6
7: 4-6-7-8
8: 1-3-6
9: 1-4-8

4x4x3x3 = 144 x .50 = $72


Good luck!
Steve

[Payson Dave]

One of my larger bets today will be in the 5th on Here Comes Ben

[Bobby Fischer]

Originally Posted by Kasept

8th: Beaumont (Gr. II), 3yo-F, 7f (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Evita Argentina 2-1: Slight 'class' edge; Beat the boys in San Vincente..
Next Best: #3 Selva 5-2: Carroll miss faces stern pace pressure..
Best Value: #6 Love You Everybody 5-1: Steady a.m. preps for return; Versatile gears..
Super Add: #2 Consequence 5-1

All eyes on Evita.
Gomez feels like he can't be stopped. It isn't always as easy to get up at Keeneland as it is at Santa Anita; the speed can sometimes hold on the 7f trip as well.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by Payson Dave

One my larger bets today will be in the 5th on Here Comes Ben

Dave...

Interesting.... Care to elaborate (without giving away the goods necessarily)?

The wins from Triplequickhit and Tenpin Alley don't particularly relate closely to this spot today, and they both won going long, but this colt (Street Cry O/O a Dayjur mare) has hints having worked sharply here and there, etc.

Thoughts?

[Payson Dave]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Dave...

Interesting.... Care to elaborate (without giving away the goods necessarily)?

The wins from Triplequickhit and Tenpin Alley don't particularly relate closely to this spot today, and they both won going long, but this colt (Street Cry O/O a Dayjur mare) has hints having worked sharply here and there, etc.

Thoughts?

The work two back was in company and was done the right way.

[dellinger63]

if you can take a look at the replay of #10 Sneaky Dreams last and only race. Winner Beer Pong went to CD and won a ALW at 7f. Think he made a pretty good move in his first try. But very tough race for sure!

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by dellinger63

if you can take a look at the replay of #10 Sneaky Dreams last and only race. Winner Beer Pong went to CD and won a ALW at 7f. Think he made a pretty good move in his first try. But very tough race for sure!

Yeesh Steve.. The last thing that race needs is another contender. Thank god it's not in the late P4. It is though the anchor in the early quad, and it will be interesting, and maybe edifying, to see the will-pays to the field...

[dellinger63]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Yeesh Steve.. The last thing that race needs is another contender. Thank god it's not in the late P4. It is though the anchor in the early quad, and it will be interesting, and maybe edifying, to see the will-pays to the field...

Going to take a stand and make Rock of Bage a single. Early 4 looks playable IMO because I don't like the favorite in the 2nd race.

On a side note I noticed Catalano has a few in today and I wish him the best though not all that fond of his horses.

[Rootdog1]

who do you like in the 2nd? I am no fan of the Gomez horse Trippi Dip....as for the 3rd...I am thinking 'all'

[dellinger63]

Originally Posted by Rootdog1

who do you like in the 2nd? I am no fan of the Gomez horse Trippi Dip....as for the 3rd...I am thinking 'all'

actually then don't like the first 2 ML favs. Using 3,4,8 in the 2nd. In the 3rd probably all minus 1-2 and 3,6,7 heavier. At least the 5th has some scratches helping out

[dellinger63]

Wednesday, April 08, 2009



Race Description
1 1st Race
#3--Oliver's Cover--SCRATCH

NO SUPERFECTA WAGERING

2nd Race
NO CHANGES

3rd Race
NO CHANGES

4th Race
NO CHANGES

5th Race
#2--Molten Lava--SCRATCH
#8--My Jett--SCRATCH

6th Race
NO CHANGES

7th Race
As of 11:40 a.m.:
#3--Gal Aloud--SCRATCH

Previously announced:
#11--Bambolina--SCRATCH
#13AE--Alexandrite Ring--Jockey change to John Velazquez
#14AE--Janou--SCRATCH

8th Race -- Beaumont (G2)
As of 11:20 a.m.:
#4--No Speed Limit--SCRATCH

9th Race
NO CHANGES

[-BT-]

Originally Posted by Kasept

6th: ALW/N1X, 4+, 6f (.50 P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Jockey Ridge 3-1: Tagg colt hasn't really fulfilled promise..
Next Best: #3 Political Nonsense 8-5: Tough to take price on Lael DepMin away 10 months..
Best Value: #1 Golden Weekend 5-1
Super Add: #6 New Believer 4-1

that is a tough ml price to swallow for a horse thats been on the shelf since last may. Given he's gotten beat by some world class horses, first time vs. winners off the bench and its not like these other horses are stiffs. Surprised if this horse goes off close to that 8-5 ML number, i might spread to try and catch a number to start the late pk4

gl all


-bt-

[-BT-]

early pk4 $0.50

378
12357
456
6712 = $67.50

7-2-4-7 = $355.35 (for $0.50)


gl all

-bt-

[Payson Dave]

that went well..

fortunately the reduced odds led to a reduced wager..

[-BT-]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Nice job

thanks hoss..... lets see what we can do in the late pk4 now

-bt-

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by -BT-

early pk4 $0.50

378
12357
456
6712 = $67.50

7-2-4-7 = $355.35 (for $0.50)


gl all

-bt-

-bt-



NICE...!!

[Kasept]

BTW... WTF? Here Comes Ben pounded down to 4-1...









(When Payson Dave says he's unloading... he means it.)

[fantini33]

Originally Posted by -BT-

early pk4 $0.50

378
12357
456
6712 = $67.50

7-2-4-7 = $355.35 (for $0.50)


gl all

-bt-

Niccceeeee

Late Pick 4
2,6
7
1,3
1,2,8,10
$16

[-BT-]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

12 minutes to post, but 3/2 on New Believer? I thought he'd be a fair price with the Matz and Tagg. Guess not...

thanks guys
guess that ml on political nonsense pushed everyone on to new believer, plus wes ward 3-3 at the meet.

late pk4 $0.50

3456
167812
13
148 = $60

gl all


-bt-