Derby Trail Prep Probables

Kasept · #1 03-24-2009, 02:06 PM

KEE-Blue Grass

Theregoesjojo
Patena
Hold Me Back
Charitable Man
Terrain
Cliffy's Future
General Quarters
Join in the Dance
Mafaaz
Massone

Hello Broadway *

OP-Arkansas Derby

Win Willy
Old Fashioned
Papa Clem
Poltergeist
Flying Private
Flat Out
Danger to Society
Summer Bird

Loch Dubh *
Ziegfeld *

KEE-Lexington

CD-Derby Trial

FATPIANO · #2 03-24-2009, 05:05 PM

Swale?

blackthroatedwind · #3 03-24-2009, 05:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by FATPIANO

Swale?

He's dead.

Plus, wouldn't he be like 28 by now?

Payson Dave · #4 03-24-2009, 05:17 PM

AeWingnut · #5 03-24-2009, 05:34 PM

any idea where Terrain is pointed

blackthroatedwind · #6 03-24-2009, 05:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AeWingnut

any idea where Terrain is pointed

He's looking to avoid Swale.

brianwspencer · #7 03-24-2009, 05:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AeWingnut

any idea where Terrain is pointed

4th in the Derby.

Seriously though, Blue Grass or Lexington last I heard.

blackthroatedwind · #8 03-24-2009, 05:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

4th in the Derby.

Seriously though, Blue Grass or Lexington last I heard.

Not to beat a dead horse.....but Swale has a better chance of being fourth in this year's Derby.

brianwspencer · #9 03-24-2009, 05:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Not to beat a dead horse.....but Swale has a better chance of being fourth in this year's Derby.

I disagree.

blackthroatedwind · #10 03-24-2009, 05:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

I disagree.

Because he seemed like the only horse to make up ground in the slopfest at Fair Grounds?

I get it, seriously, he just seems completely untalented. Then again, in a collapse in the Derby, which at this point seems possible, I suppose he figures to be in the top 12 somewhere. I just haven't seen anything good from him. Personally, I think the Fair Grounds race was a bit of an illusion with so many horses simply not running.

brianwspencer · #11 03-24-2009, 06:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Because he seemed like the only horse to make up ground in the slopfest at Fair Grounds?

I get it, seriously, he just seems completely untalented. Then again, in a collapse in the Derby, which at this point seems possible, I suppose he figures to be in the top 12 somewhere. I just haven't seen anything good from him. Personally, I think the Fair Grounds race was a bit of an illusion with so many horses simply not running.

Nah, actually the Fair Grounds race isn't really the reason I think that at all, I didn't take much of anything away from that race outside of Friesan Fire. Terrain's got just barely enough talent. He reminds me of Wilko in that regard...he can make a lot of money being pointed in the right spots while never winning anything again.

But as far as the Derby goes, I just picture him getting the same kind of off the pace trip as lots of other recent 3rd and 4th place finishers got. At least he's shown he doesn't quit running, which has turned into a huge advantage in recent years at 10 furlongs. You don't have to be that fast to get 4th in the Derby in comparison to the other runners in there...just be one of the last ones left running. Think more Imawildandcrazyguy, Jazil, Don't Get Mad, Atswhatimtalkinabout, etc. None were really very good, but didn't quit running when 17 other horses did.

Or I could just save Hoff's money for a WPS bet on Win Willy and call it a day.

AeWingnut · #12 03-24-2009, 06:07 PM

Nicanor isn't that bad but I don't think he is pointed anywhere

blackthroatedwind · #13 03-24-2009, 06:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

Nah, actually the Fair Grounds race isn't really the reason I think that at all, I didn't take much of anything away from that race outside of Friesan Fire. Terrain's got just barely enough talent. He reminds me of Wilko in that regard...he can make a lot of money being pointed in the right spots while never winning anything again.

But as far as the Derby goes, I just picture him getting the same kind of off the pace trip as lots of other recent 3rd and 4th place finishers got. At least he's shown he doesn't quit running, which has turned into a huge advantage in recent years at 10 furlongs. You don't have to be that fast to get 4th in the Derby in comparison to the other runners in there...just be one of the last ones left running. Think more Imawildandcrazyguy, Jazil, Don't Get Mad, Atswhatimtalkinabout, etc. None were really very good, but didn't quit running when 17 other horses did.

Or I could just save Hoff's money for a WPS bet on Win Willy and call it a day.

I get it, I just think this year's Derby field may be unusually strong, and even the minor clunkers may be decent horses.

brianwspencer · #14 03-24-2009, 06:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I get it, I just think this year's Derby field may be unusually strong, and even the minor clunkers may be decent horses.

That's possible too. I still don't know what to make of lots of these horses, so at least Terrain has shown me that he won't quit. That sort of certainty is more than I can say about some of the others.

I also like that he'll be going into the Derby with nothing but an obscene GIII DQ win to this credit since last fall. Total Jazil.

Indian Charlie · #15 03-24-2009, 06:22 PM

How about West Side Bernie Andrew?

blackthroatedwind · #16 03-24-2009, 06:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

How about West Side Bernie Andrew?

Wow, how bad was he this weekend?

How could anyone take him after that? He's either not that good ( very possible ) or finished.

Monarchos1 · #17 03-24-2009, 07:44 PM

Some probables for the Swale.

Beacon Hill Road
Big Drama
Brave Victory
Custom for Carlos
Presto Change O
Sabi Sabi
This Ones for Phil

I'll take Brave Victory for the win.

Indian Charlie · #18 03-24-2009, 08:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Wow, how bad was he this weekend?

How could anyone take him after that? He's either not that good ( very possible ) or finished.

I figured you kind of liked him since you anticipated him being 2/5 in that race.

blackthroatedwind · #19 03-24-2009, 08:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

I figured you kind of liked him since you anticipated him being 2/5 in that race.

I thought he was a complete cinch in the race. I didn't bet him as I assumed he was the favorite.

I did bet the winner of the Bourbonette however.

Indian Charlie · #20 03-24-2009, 08:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I thought he was a complete cinch in the race. I didn't bet him as I assumed he was the favorite.

I did bet the winner of the Bourbonette however.

I felt like I was trying to handicap a bad 10k claiming field for the Lane's End. It gave me a headache. How people thought WSB, or anyone in there could be 2/5 was pretty puzzling.