1/31: Gulfstream; Magna 5

Kasept · #1 01-30-2009, 10:08 PM

It's a pretty humorous day of wagering when you hit a P6 conso and P4 and lose $75! Can't complain of course that the obvious horses won all but one of the last 6 of the day at Hallandale, as you can only put yourself in position to capitalize on the potentially large opportunities... Fun Saturday in store at Gulfstream for Holy Bull-Donn Day and Week 2 of Magna 5! Hope you did well Friday...

GULFSTREAM

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: ALW/N$Y, 3yo, 1m (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Well Positioned 5-2 6th
Best Value: #1 Sincero 6-1 4th
Next Best: #7 Take the Points 3-1 WON
Super Add: #6 Masala 4-1 2nd

2nd: CLM, 4+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

#10 Exchanging Kisses is likely SCR..

Most Likely: #7 Bang Bang Bang 4-1 2nd
Best Value: #5 High Ceiling 10-1 7th
Next Best: #3 Optimer 7-2 3rd
Super Add: (SCR sub) #9 Heavyweight 12-1 9th

3rd: MSW, 3yo, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Just a Coincidence 3-1 4th
Best Value: #2 Bobby B. Goode 6-1 9th
Next Best: #1 Presto Change O 4-1 DNF-Lost rider
Super Add: #9 Mighty Score 6-1 2nd

4th: CLM/N3L, F&M-4+, 1m-T (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #8 Yippity Yap 5-1 5th
Next Best: #12 Choosing 5-2 WON
Best Value: #11 Millicat 8-1 3rd
Super Add: #1 Tiger With a T 4-1 2nd

5th: CLM, 4+, 7f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Variant 4-1 10th
Best Value: #2 Next Adventure 6-1 WON
Next Best: #8 Shone 5-2 8th
Super Add: #7 Raymundo 5-1 3rd

6th: MSW, 3yo, 5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #6 Echo in Eternity 6-1 WON
Most Likely: #8 Ace of Spades 4-1 4th
Next Best: #4 Fullofsong 8-1 8th
Super Add: #7 Braciole 12-1 9th

7th: Holy Bull, 3yo, 9f (.50 P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Danger to Society 5-1 7th
Best Value: #7 Stately Character 20-1 5th
Next Best: #10 West Side Bernie 3-1 3rd
Super Add: #5 El Crespo 12-1 9th

8th: MSW, 3yo, 1m (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #10 Dubinsky 7-2 4th
Best Value: #7 Boyhood Dream 10-1 7th
Next Best: #8 Il Postino 12-1 6th
Super Add: #2 Big Flirt 6-1 8th

9th: Donn H. (Gr. I), 4+, 9f (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #7 Arson Squad 3-1 4th
Best Value: #3 Anak Nakal 10-1 7th
Next Best: #2 Albertus Maximus 4-1 WON
Super Add: #4 Bullsbay 8-1 10th

10th: MSW, F&M-4+, 8.5f (Super)

Most Likely: #6 Witty Woman 7-2 WON
Next Best: #8 Watch Smartly 5-1 5th
Best Value: #10 Sealed Bid 8-1 8th
Super Add: #4 Tenacious 4-1 10th

@$50 P4 Play:

7: 2-5-7-8-10-11
8: 10
9: 2-3-4-7-8-10
10: 4-6-8

6x1x6x3 = 108 x .50 = $54

MAGNA 5

A) LRL 9: 24th Dancing Count, 3yo, 6f

Mr. Fantasy a SCR to run in NY Sunday..

Most Likely: #6 Russell Road 9-2 WON
Next Best: #1 St. John's Gospel 6-1
Exotic Use: #3 Great Love 8-1

B) SA 4: MSW, 3yo-F, 1m-T

Most Likely: #8 Spring Party 4-1 WON
Best Value: #4 Dextera 8-1
Next Best: #6 Sweet Thoughts 2-1
Exotics Use: #9 Showboater 10-1
Super Add: #3 Stormy Slew 12-1

C) GP 9: Donn H. (Gr. I), 4+, 9f

Most Likely: #7 Arson Squad 3-1
Best Value: #3 Anak Nakal 10-1
Next Best: #2 Albertus Maximus 4-1 WON
Super Add: #4 Bullsbay 8-1

D.) GG 4: OC/N1X, 4+, 1m

Most Likely: #1 Warren's Page 3-1
Best Value: #8 Trick of the North 10-1
Next Best: #5 Old Ed 6-1 WON
Super Add: #3 Esporte Dos Reis 6-1

E.) SA 5: MSW, 3yo, 6f

Most Likely: #2 Keep Thinking 5-1
Best Value: #8 Gold Schleiger 8-1
Next Best: #6 Valkyrie Missle 7-2
Exotics Use: #5 Street Car 5-1
Super Add: #4 Pauper's Prize 5-1

<$300/<$200/<$100 Plays:

A: 6 (1) [3]
B: 3-4-6-8-9-10
C: 2-3-4-7
D: 1-3-5-8
E: 2

1x6x4x4x1 = $96
(2)x6x4x4x1 = $192
[3]x6x4x4x1 = $288

Good luck!
Steve

dagulla · #2 01-30-2009, 10:24 PM

Steve, What do you like about the Zito horse in the 3rd ? He seems like one who has had his chances already, and this race looks ripe for a first time starter IMO.

Kasept · #3 01-30-2009, 10:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

I am interested in Saratoga Sinner a bit in the Holy Bull. he didn't show much at Keeneland, but i thought his 3rd to Danger To Society was better than it looked. It was a good education as he took a lot of dirt in the face and seemed timid around the far turn, dropping back and running a bit awkwardly. Once they got straightened out, he finished well and was actually gaining pretty good ground late. His maiden win was okay and i think with another step forward he can be competitive at a nice price. Obviously Danger To Society is the horse to beat.

Hoss,

He's as viable as any of the price alternatives. I'll likely use him too. To me, the horse that gets jobbed here (again) is West Side Bernie. While I'm not a Breen fan, I think this is a real racehorse. Expect him to jump up along the Derby Trail and snare a nice one.

Kasept · #4 01-30-2009, 10:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dagulla

Steve, What do you like about the Zito horse in the 3rd ? He seems like one who has had his chances already, and this race looks ripe for a first time starter IMO.

Could be.. I'm not crazy about the race overall. Zito has begun to fire on all cylinders this week and 'Coincidence' at Churchill sure looked like a horse that wants three-quarters and little more. 2 of his 3 NY sprints win this unless someone jumps up. And on that topic, note the eye-popping 33.3 move from the Breen runner (Mighty Score) last week. 33.3? How often do you see 33.3 workouts? I'm not sure i've EVER seen one. Romans' Maswary might be something, but that's an alarming gap between the last start and the one work. Was he at a private training center? I hope so...

ironprospect · #5 01-31-2009, 02:09 AM

6
3468
7
8
23468
$20

golfer · #6 01-31-2009, 08:20 AM

A few I find interesting today at Gulf:

2nd: #6 Closing Number. Ran well in last year's Hallandale Beach Stakes. Hasn't done much since, his most recent was a sprint against a pretty contentious field. Possible reach, but 20-1 ML.

4th: Agree with Steve in including #3 Intense Elvira. Last dirt sprint was lifetime top. Previous turf effort was better than it appeared, in my opinion.

10th: #8 Watch Smartly off long layoff, obviously something went wrong, but it that has been righted, chased some good ones 300 some days ago.

miraja2 · #7 01-31-2009, 08:41 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept

Hoss,

He's as viable as any of the price alternatives. I'll likely use him too. To me, the horse that gets jobbed here (again) is West Side Bernie. While I'm not a Breen fan, I think this is a real racehorse. Expect him to jump up along the Derby Trail and snare a nice one.

This race would certainly have been a lot more interesting if he and Beethoven weren't so far out there.
West Side Bernie definitely works like a monster. 1/41, 1/29, 1/44, and 1/52 in his last four works? That's nuts.

miraja2 · #8 01-31-2009, 08:47 AM

GP: Pick-3 (Races 7-9)

2 / 2,3,4,7,10 / 4,7,10

swedejxn · #9 01-31-2009, 08:53 AM

Magna5

3-6
4-6-11
2-4-7-10
1-5-6
2-4

DinNJ · #10 01-31-2009, 08:55 AM

Steve, what's your thought on Great Hunter in the Donn? Castellano takes off of On Board Again to ride him, and I always take notice when Doug O'Neill ships across country. I know the horse hasn't shown anything for a while, but is it possible that he's crying out for real dirt and that last on 12/20 was meant as a prep for this? I don't see him winning, but I think he could pick up a piece if all the top ones falter.

Also, I keep hearing Helen Pitts say how much Einstein doesn't like the track at GP.

pweizer · #11 01-31-2009, 09:24 AM

Going for two in a row for the Magna five with the following (changed after scratches):

1-3-6

2-4-6-8

2-7

1-8

2-3-6-8-11-12

$288

Good luck to all playing.

Paul

zippyneedsawin · #12 01-31-2009, 09:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DinNJ

Steve, what's your thought on Great Hunter in the Donn? Castellano takes off of On Board Again to ride him, and I always take notice when Doug O'Neill ships across country. I know the horse hasn't shown anything for a while, but is it possible that he's crying out for real dirt and that last on 12/20 was meant as a prep for this? I don't see him winning, but I think he could pick up a piece if all the top ones falter.

Also, I keep hearing Helen Pitts say how much Einstein doesn't like the track at GP.

Einstein biggest problem today is that he drew poorly for the race. He's a solid bet against this time. (I'm using Arson Squad and ALbertus Maximus)

hockey2315 · #13 01-31-2009, 10:08 AM

I really like the Frankel piece in the Nicanor race. . .

miraja2 · #14 01-31-2009, 10:13 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by zippyneedsawin

Einstein biggest problem today is that he drew poorly for the race. He's a solid bet against this time. (I'm using Arson Squad and ALbertus Maximus)

The post is an obvious problem, but I would be hesitant to toss him completely in any horizontal wagers against this mediocre field. His workout pattern matches almost exactly what he did before his two nice dirt starts last year at CD. Before those two starts he followed a series of slow drills over the CD strip with a bullet 5f work 5-6 days before the race. He has done the exact same thing at Gulfstream this month coming off a layoff (slow 4f work, followed by a slow 5f work, followed by a very sharp 5f work) that he did coming off a layoff in the Clark. There is every reason to think he should be ready to go.

The post position might be too much, or perhaps he really won't like the surface, but when there is every reason to believe that the most talented horse in the field is at the top of his game....I think it makes him too dangerous to toss.

miraja2 · #15 01-31-2009, 10:22 AM

Early Changes: Saturday, January 31

Track: Fast Turf: Firm Rail: 84 Feet

Race 1: #5 Bar Shoes Behind

Race 2: Scratch #1 #10 #13
Jockey Change #5 Robby Albarado

Race 3: Scratch #10 #14

Race 4: Scratch #3
Corrected Claiming Price & Weight #8
$35,000 - 122 pounds

Race 6: Scratch #1A (poe) #13 #14 #15
#7 - Blinkers On

Race 7: Scratch #9
Overweights #1 +1 #2 +2 #3 +2

Race 8: Scratch #13

Race 9: Overweights #5 +1 #6 +4

Race 10: Scratch #3 #9 #15 #16
Jockey Change #10 Elvis Trujillo

miraja2 · #16 01-31-2009, 10:25 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hockey2315

I really like the Frankel piece in the Nicanor race. . .

Quote:

Originally Posted by dahoss9698

FWIW, So do I...

I've got some bad news for both of you.....so do I.

zippyneedsawin · #17 01-31-2009, 10:25 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by miraja2

The post is an obvious problem, but I would be hesitant to toss him completely in any horizontal wagers against this mediocre field. His workout pattern matches almost exactly what he did before his two nice dirt starts last year at CD. Before those two starts he followed a series of slow drills over the CD strip with a bullet 5f work 5-6 days before the race. He has done the exact same thing at Gulfstream this month coming off a layoff (slow 4f work, followed by a slow 5f work, followed by a very sharp 5f work) that he did coming off a layoff in the Clark. There is every reason to think he should be ready to go.

The post position might be too much, or perhaps he really won't like the surface, but when there is every reason to believe that the most talented horse in the field is at the top of his game....I think it makes him too dangerous to toss.

Oh, I agree he's the most talented in the field. It's just a chance I'm willing to take in this spot. ... I'll probably chicken out and include him and Bullsbay in exotics though anyway! .. But I'll put in at least one pick 4 that singles Arson Squad (and Danger to Society in the 7th)

jms62 · #18 01-31-2009, 10:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by miraja2

I've got some bad news for both of you.....so do I.

I have bad news for the 3 of you... I like him too.scratched

miraja2 · #19 01-31-2009, 10:52 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jms62

I have bad news for the 3 of you... I like him too.scratched

Oh yeah, the AE scratched.
I meant the other Frankel in that race (Andiron).

hurricanefrank · #20 01-31-2009, 10:55 AM

#7 BRACIOLE (12-1) in race 6 at GP intrigues me. "Late" equipment change to "blinkers on" clinched it. Castellano aboard. 2d time Lasix (underrated angle). Gate to wire shot.