Most Powerful Handicapping Angles

[Travis Stone]

I'm refreshing the beginners handicapping course I teach at the local community college. Last year we spent one night talking about various handicapping angles, both good and bad. I wanted to toss the question out to DTers so I can maybe toss a few more angles in here or there to the course and keep it somewhat new to the regular attendees.

So if you wouldn't mind, what would you consider to be the most powerful (both positive and negative) angles in handicapping?

For what it's worth, here's what I would put:

1. Distance cut-back
2. Second-time starter off even debut
3. O2X (From the Sheet guys)

[GPK]

I like your first two. ( I don't use the sheets, so can't comment on the 3rd.)

I also like:

2 sprints to route, especially if the route is the 3rd off a layoff
Positive trainer switch being an obvious one as well.
Along the same lines of your 2nd start off an even debut, I also like the 2nd start being a turf route off an even dirt sprint debut.


and last but not least, anything Kurt Ziadie sents out at Tampa that David Cardoso ISN'T riding.

[GPK]

Travis, I assume you are relating to them that the most positive handicapping thing they can do lies in watching replays?

[Travis Stone]

Originally Posted by GPK

Travis, I assume you are relating to them that the most positive handicapping thing they can do lies in watching replays?

One session is all about trip handicapping, which really could warrant an entire course in itself. We usually do it towards the end of the course so we can apply the pace discussion among other things.

I remember I spent my sophomore year in college doing nothing but trip handicapping. I used to schedule my classes to optimize my time spent on Belmont Park. I had classes all day on Tues/Thurs, and can specifically remember getting caught handicapping the Friday card during "Communication Development in Children" on a Thursday evening.

[ninetoone]

They have college courses in handicapping.......Boy, I missed the boat on that one.

[Travis Stone]

Not to get too off topic but the course has been a huge success so far. After the first class (which sold-out with 30 students... it's an adult community education course) a couple which took the course claimed a horse the following week and won I think four or five of their next six races with the horse. I'm sure they didn't pick out the claim based upon "Speed Figures 101" but it was the fact it got them into the game. They haven't missed a course yet!

[GPK]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

One session is all about trip handicapping, which really could warrant an entire course in itself. We usually do it towards the end of the course so we can apply the pace discussion among other things.

I remember I spent my sophomore year in college doing nothing but trip handicapping. I used to schedule my classes to optimize my time spent on Belmont Park. I had classes all day on Tues/Thurs, and can specifically remember getting caught handicapping the Friday card during "Communication Development in Children" on a Thursday evening.

See, when I was a kid, my Dad would just put his foot in my ass and tell me to go outside and play. Now that is teaching communication development in children!!

[declansharbor]

The cutback/stretchout is my favorite.(ex. Today @ Gulfstream R10-More Than Willing...chalk but still) I also like the class drop/hike.(class hike off the positive trainer switch is a good one) As Kev said, positive trainer switch is pretty much a given. One red flag for me in the claiming races, is never bet/key a horse in top position that's not in for full claiming price. I would also like to see steady works for the horse Im going to bet. Follow these rules and you can be a loser at the windows just like me.

[2MinsToPost]

A topic that I have made my goal to learn as much as possible about this year -

The difference in tracks. A classic current example is Calder versus Gulfstream. The deep Calder racing surface versus Gulfstream. In addition, the difference between Aqueducts Inner and Main, the long stretch at Churchill etc and how it affects the way you cap a past performance in relation to the track it is being run at.

[dagolfer33]

I like looking for horses in sprints that have bullets on their worktabs and several races under their belt, but have not been able to get the lead in any of their races. Sometimes just a better break, or a slight jock upgrade can get theses types to wire the field at great prices.

[MaTH716]

Originally Posted by 2MinsToPost

A topic that I have made my goal to learn as much as possible about this year -

The difference in tracks. A classic current example is Calder versus Gulfstream. The deep Calder racing surface versus Gulfstream. In addition, the difference between Aqueducts Inner and Main, the long stretch at Churchill etc and how it affects the way you cap a past performance in relation to the track it is being run at.

I don't think the specific track matters as much as the biases that go along with them. But obviously those could change daily if not hourly due to weather and other factors.

[Travis Stone]

The positive trainer change is huge, good call.

[2MinsToPost]

Originally Posted by MaTH716

I don't think the specific track matters as much as the biases that go along with them. But obviously those could change daily if not hourly due to weather and other factors.

I'm thinking more along the lines of the difference in track shape and surface. Classic example in play now with all the Calder shippers at Gulfstream. Calder has a deep sandy surface compared to Gulfstreams. The layout of the track, how wide are the turns, how long is the frontstretch etc.. When you tie this in to post positions, etc I feel it plays a role.

[Scav]

Where in the world is their a handicapping close at a community college? That has to be one of the coolest college credit EVAH...

Possible online course becuase I will join.

[swedejxn]

the obvious for me is trainer % you just have some trainers that are just good at placing their horses.... trainer/jock is an added plus..... look at owner stats too.... when I do not have time to cap and there is a contest or something.... i will just go with these and usually finish top third of the contest...

my favorite NON-EDUCATED angle is using the the next widest horse when a single horse scratches.... Amazingly about 60% ITM (lets say I cap
Friday .... pick my horses.... one I like scratches... sub the next higher post....of course only when in my top 6)

I love turf and 1 mile plus races.... pace plays into it more.... if I see 3 horses that may go for the lead.... I play a trifecta box 4 horses...
play the best stamina horse and 3 closers... positive roi on these races...

next time I am over in Bossier I will let you know... live in Jackson but spent about 4 years in 'Port back in the ardoin/snyder/and occasionally Day era...... just easier to go to NO.... put out a tip sheet when I was over though.... sold lumber to most of the farms and got some great insight to the game....

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

I'm refreshing the beginners handicapping course I teach at the local community college. Last year we spent one night talking about various handicapping angles, both good and bad. I wanted to toss the question out to DTers so I can maybe toss a few more angles in here or there to the course and keep it somewhat new to the regular attendees.

So if you wouldn't mind, what would you consider to be the most powerful (both positive and negative) angles in handicapping?

For what it's worth, here's what I would put:

1. Distance cut-back
2. Second-time starter off even debut
3. O2X (From the Sheet guys)

This sounds like a really cool course. More specifically, to your point #2, I'm usually impressed with a horse who may break poorly first time out but makes up some ground while finishing midpack. i don't want them just passing tired ones, but legitimately closing and showing some late interest once they get their head straight.

[MaTH716]

Originally Posted by 2MinsToPost

I'm thinking more along the lines of the difference in track shape and surface. Classic example in play now with all the Calder shippers at Gulfstream. Calder has a deep sandy surface compared to Gulfstreams. The layout of the track, how wide are the turns, how long is the frontstretch etc.. When you tie this in to post positions, etc I feel it plays a role.

It might play a role but I think it is very very minor. When it comes to capping there is so much information out there already, that adding this to the process may just be overkill. Also when I think of track layouts and the turns, I think that's the type of information that jockeys have to be more aware of than handicappers.

[miraja2]

I like a horse who has demonstrated need-the-lead traits in the past and has been caught up in speed duels and faded at a given distance (say, for example, 6f) in recent starts, and is then stretched out a furlong in its next start.
I think the average schmo thinks that if the horse faded on the lead going 6f, it will surely fade going 7f. In reality, however, a need-the-lead type is often able to get the lead much more easily at the longer distance (depending of course, on the makeup of that particular race), which can often be the difference.

[ninetoone]

Originally Posted by miraja2

I like a horse who has demonstrated need-the-lead traits in the past and has been caught up in speed duels and faded at a given distance (say, for example, 6f) in recent starts, and is then stretched out a furlong in its next start.
I think the average schmo thinks that if the horse faded on the lead going 6f, it will surely fade going 7f. In reality, however, a need-the-lead type is often able to get the lead much more easily at the longer distance (depending of course, on the makeup of that particular race), which can often be the difference.

Seen that one work many times...

[wac]

1)The best angle ive ever come across is a 2nd time on the turf with good breeding if the horse showed any interest at all 1st time on it. Would prefer to be route/route but sometimes a turf spring to route works. I have never cashed a bunch of tickets but that one has led me to some good payouts

2)i have NO numbers to really back it up is a smart strike colt or filly 1st time on turf. I have no numbers as to what they hit just seems like they do good 1st time out.

3)Unusual Heat fillies/mares on the grass. ONce again i have no real numbers but im sure someone on here can give specifics.

Im definitley a novice but those have led to the best tickets that ive ever cashed.