FORTUS: Fair Grounds Horses, Trainers, Jocks

Kasept · #1 11-12-2008, 04:39 PM

Nice preview from Bob Fortus in the Times-Picayune...
http://www.nola.com/sports/t-p/horse...920.xml&coll=1

gales0678 · #2 11-12-2008, 06:56 PM

Steve,

Why is O'Neill coming to LA?

also what do you think of P Val - how will he do in the big easy?

phystech · #3 11-13-2008, 10:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by gales0678

Steve,

Why is O'Neill coming to LA?

$$$$$$$$$$$$'s

Kasept · #4 11-13-2008, 11:12 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by gales0678

Steve,

Why is O'Neill coming to LA?

also what do you think of P Val - how will he do in the big easy?

gales,

Tom has it right above. The money is going to be very good in NOLA and O'Neill is branching out steadily with some clients that give him enough horses that duplication within divisions can be an issue.. I'm sure PVal will continue to ride well in Louisiana. He has no other options...

philcski · #5 11-13-2008, 11:19 AM

Nice blog piece by him from a couple days ago I found on equidaily.

http://blog.nola.com/tpsports/2008/1...oost_to_h.html

cakes44 · #6 11-13-2008, 12:48 PM

The PVal of 5 years ago would have been a 35% winner at the Fairgrounds. However, it appears his skills have diminished significantly in the time he was suspended. He'll still be the best speed rider they've got there, but that stretch negates that strength somewhat.

the_fat_man · #7 11-13-2008, 01:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cakes44

The PVal of 5 years ago would have been a 35% winner at the Fairgrounds. However, it appears his skills have diminished significantly in the time he was suspended. He'll still be the best speed rider they've got there, but that stretch negates that strength somewhat.

I don't know much about PVAL but how exactly does his being a 'speed rider' fit in with riding on speed favoring tracks at CALI all those years? Does it take much skill to bust a horse out and have the track carry it? Under those conditions, LUZZI (and other idiot PUMPERS) would be hall of famers.

With that aside, FG offers some of the FAIREST racing in the country. If your strength is betting closers (dirt AND turf) then you should be out there.

cakes44 · #8 11-13-2008, 01:26 PM

LUZZI is an idiot pumper. PVal got more out of horses that wanted to be on or near the lead then other jocks on the same horses. That's what I meant by him being a speed rider. Comparing him to Luzzi is nuts. PVal was almost as good on the turf as he was on the lead, if that makes you feel better about him as a jock in his heyday.

the_fat_man · #9 11-13-2008, 01:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cakes44

LUZZI is an idiot pumper. PVal got more out of horses that wanted to be on or near the lead then other jocks on the same horses. That's what I meant by him being a speed rider. Comparing him to Luzzi is nuts. PVal was almost as good on the turf as he was on the lead, if that makes you feel better about him as a jock in his heyday.

Wasn't comparing him to LUZZI. Just pointing out that LUZZI would be a star on a speed favoring track.

How exactly did PVAL accomplish the bolded part? What sets him apart as a speed rider? Explain.

cakes44 · #10 11-13-2008, 01:58 PM

Other than getting horses out of the gate quicker and saving horse for the end of a race, I can't explain it very well. I'm not a jockey, I just bet on the races they ride in. He obviously spent most of his time at very speed-favoring tracks, but he was also more successful at it than just about anyone else. I do remember him winning his share of big races outside of California as well. The guy won 7 BC races from 53 mounts for cripes sake.

the_fat_man · #11 11-13-2008, 02:10 PM

That's disappointing. You're supporting a position that you can't really defend.

I certainly can tell you what makes a jock a poor speed rider. Court's ride on Sweet October in yesterday's 4th at HOL, would be a nice example of how to rush a horse unnecessarily.

gales0678 · #12 11-13-2008, 02:22 PM

didn't he rush against le vogyer in the '89 Belmont, allowing Easy Goer and patient Pat Day to win

why does kent d get killed for blowing the TC and not P Val , of course if Day hadn't blown the Preakness , P Val wouldn't have gotten a chance to blow the Belmont

cakes44 · #13 11-13-2008, 02:22 PM

I'm not really interested in knowing why, to be honest, however disappointing that is to you. It doesn't take a riding expert to know that Gomez riding on a closer is going to get a little more out of the horse than Espinoza got out of the same horse the last race(assuming the horse is close to in the same form). I'd love for you to explain to me the technicalities of exactly what Gomez does differently down the lane than everyone else when he's basically humping the crap out of the animal. Like I said, the "why" isn't all that important to me, but the results definitely are. However it is possible that I could actually learn something useful.

Please don't waste my time with how some horses are rushed to the lead needlessly either. Everybody here sees those everyday and can identify those.

the_fat_man · #14 11-13-2008, 02:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cakes44

I'm not really interested in knowing why, to be honest, however disappointing that is to you. It doesn't take a riding expert to know that Gomez riding on a closer is going to get a little more out of the horse than Espinoza got out of the same horse the last race(assuming the horse is close to in the same form). I'd love for you to explain to me the technicalities of exactly what Gomez does differently down the lane than everyone else when he's basically humping the crap out of the animal. Maybe I could actually learn something useful.

Please don't waste my time with how some horses are rushed to the lead needlessly. Everybody here sees those everyday and can identify those.

Waste your time? You're yet another clueless horseplayer, feeling the need to basically repeat what you hear/read. You have no idea what makes a good or bad ride or a good/bad jockey. If you did, you'd be able to provide specifics rather than just data. It it weren't for NUMBERS, you wouldn't be in the game. However, you're yet another welcome addition to the handicapping pool.

cakes44 · #15 11-13-2008, 02:30 PM

Thanks again. You have definitely proven me wrong. PVal is/was a garbage jockey. I wonder how he got any mounts from some of the all-time leading trainers. They must not have ever asked for your permission first.

philcski · #16 11-13-2008, 02:50 PM

You guys give wayyyyyyyyy too much credit/blame on jockeys.

cakes44 · #17 11-13-2008, 02:55 PM

You are probably right Phil. However, I do believe that knowing jocks tendencies does have to play a small part in handicapping. However small that is obviously depends on the player.

The Bid · #18 11-13-2008, 09:10 PM

P Val is one of the best to ever get legged up.

If you take all of his shinnanigans out of the mix he really was a fantastic rider.

Oaklawnfan · #19 11-13-2008, 09:15 PM

I'm all for someone getting things back on track in their life. I hope the best for P Val, because this meet could really mean a lot to his future. I wish him the best, because he had demonstrated that he can ride.

docicu3 · #20 11-13-2008, 11:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Bid

P Val is one of the best to ever get legged up.

If you take all of his shinnanigans out of the mix he really was a fantastic rider.

Unfortunately it is impossible to.......the disease of his addiction will humble him every single time.

This guy is a ticking time bomb that goes off with devastating consequences each and every time he gets a little breathing room after episodes like the mini bottom at the Taco Bell.

This meet at FG is their richest ever and the worst possible scenario for PVal. In his career, Valenzuela has, as of April of this year, collected 3,969 wins from 25,674 lifetime starts, with $150,677,127 in earnings. If you calculated his likely approximate take of 15% - agent, hot walkers or overhead that jocks typically pay. Patrick has probably made approximately 10.5 million plying his trade compared to the 55K he made at Louisiana Downs recently.

He allegedly is broke......

.....and has only been on his best behavior at Louisiana Downs when his back has been up against the wall squeezing out earnings off of
778K from 262 mounts winning at a rate just shy of 15%. Now after scratching and clawing to maintain an income on a lesser circuit, with the only license he can keep active, he steps onto the Fairgrounds and it's 300K average daily purses. He is likely to make enough money to be a little less desperate to maintain his sobriety and his current successful work ethic............anyone can fill in the ending here, the only uncertainty is when not if. Hopefully this won't be the one that takes his life........