Cup day 4

Grey Goose 2yo Turf

Donativum was a "monster" according to his conditioner and that led to a late June castration. A facile score in a modest field ensued before added money tally at Newmarket. In that race he beat 23 others including the runnerup (Crowded House) who won the Grade One Racing Post twelve hours ago. Also Westphalia who gets Lasix and need only find room to be the one to down. Two Deep.

Sprint

Midnite Lute's penultimate work for this had Baffert yelling at the clockers with one veteran time taker calling it the best work he has seen in thirty years! The last half was in :44 flat and the huge son of Quiet American runs these down if things go his way and dropping the hood can only help. Also quickster Fabulous Strike and In Summation who is due a good trip and second time J. V. always a plus. Three long.

Turf

Eagle Mountain came off a 349 day vacation with a new track record in a race many thought too short. After outworking Archipenko last week Ladbroke's dropped this son of the "Rock" from 16-1 to 7-1. World class connections and this horse will turn your head. Also the "Soldier who is the one to beat.

Classic

Ten million dollar man likes this surface better than dirt according to a pair of prominent midwest conditioners and that bodes poorly for the others, but adding two sophomores that are terriffic colts. The "Colonel" has improved every start and gamely annexed a weak bunch in his last but was squeezed on thrice in that score and has been training very well. Tiznow colt needs another move forward and should relish the new boy. Also the "Raven" who will be tough to hit if this son of EQ stays. Gosden says nine poles no problem; ten???

Call it 3,4 / 3,4,7 / 4, 11 / 8,9,11 Been busy. Good cappin. BBB

[Bigsmc]

Ahhhhhhh.

My day is complete.

[pointman]

Originally Posted by Bigsmc

Ahhhhhhh.

My day is complete.

LOL!

[blackthroatedwind]

First of all let's be fair, he did a helluva job handicapping.

Seriously, I've said it a million times.....if he bet to give himself a chance to win he might win. His handicapping here was pretty terrific.

Not as good as mine....but pretty damn good.

[Bogey]

BBB, Gallant effort

Hey, CD opens tomorrow

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by Bogey

BBB, Gallant effort

Hey, CD opens tomorrow

YAY!!!!

anyone think curlin will actually show up for the clark, or go to japan? i'd love to see him at ky one more time, go out on real dirt.


ain't gonna happen.

[dalakhani]

I agree with BTW. That was DAMN good cappin. Nice job BBB.

I wonder if others who deride this guy will be classy enough to come back here and give the guy some love on a couple of nice picks.

[GPK]

I'm with Andy here (and I give BBB alot of sh*t), the kid do a good job handicapping the races, but continues to leave himself open to criticism when it comes to actually giving himself a chance to win. $36 on a pick 4 ticket is just not enough in the long run.

What the hell do I know though...me and a friend threw $200 at the first pick 4 and busted out the first leg.

[Bigsmc]

Originally Posted by dalakhani

I agree with BTW. That was DAMN good cappin. Nice job BBB.

I wonder if others who deride this guy will be classy enough to come back here and give the guy some love on a couple of nice picks.

If you are referring to me, I don't think saying my day was complete was deriding him.

That said, his handicapping was and is excellent (go back and check his history here) and his wagering is not. He has consistantly come up with price horses over the couple years he's been here.

Unless he bet something other than this ticket, he's got nothing to show for his effort.

[2Hot4TV]

Originally Posted by Danzig

YAY!!!!

anyone think curlin will actually show up for the clark, or go to japan? i'd love to see him at ky one more time, go out on real dirt.


ain't gonna happen.

Put a fork in him, he's done. I think he's on a down cycle and the timing is to go to the shed.

[dalakhani]

Originally Posted by Bigsmc

If you are referring to me, I don't think saying my day was complete was deriding him.

That said, his handicapping was and is excellent (go back and check his history here) and his wagering is not. He has consistantly come up with price horses over the couple years he's been here.

Unless he bet something other than this ticket, he's got nothing to show for his effort.

no bigs, i wasnt referring to you or anyone else in particular. I apologize if it came across that way.

[Scav]

For the record here, if BBB would have done just tad bit more research, he would have nailed this. Conduit was FAVORED to win the Turf in Europe, including him taking a 8/1 to 7/2 hit early in the week.

This information was courtesy of our favorite irishman, Brockguy

[blackthroatedwind]

One crucial point has seemingly been missed.......had Conduit's rider not carried a buzzer, Eagle Mountain would have won, and BBB would have hit his Pick-4.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by Bigsmc

That said, his handicapping was and is excellent (go back and check his history here) and his wagering is not. He has consistantly come up with price horses over the couple years he's been here.

The dude has hit ONE pick 4 in the past 13 or so months (to the best of my knowledge). And it paid something like 4:1. He 'consistantly' picks price horses the way the guys that select 4 in every race (and only point out the HITS, without mentioning the huge cost of playing all their picks through) 'consistantly' pick winners. Let's not go overboard here. He shows up, occasionally, when he thinks he has an edge. What he needs, more than anything else, is to PUT THE ****IN FORM DOWN and actually watch some races. It would completely alter his perspective, as he'd have something REAL to work with.

Many years ago, or longer than that, the Red Mile in Lexington ran a meet where the program had no morning line. Chaos ensued for the majority of the public and a few of us made solid coin at the expense of flunking more than a couple of courses. Since that time we never look at the morning line.

With that printed we figured Westphalia and Dorivatum would vie for favoritism in the Juvy turf and cannot fathom making a case for any of the others winning. Westphalia had been superb in his six race career especially if you overlook his less than interested ride at 4-5 over a bog at the Curragh, and Donativum had just beaten a colt that won a Grade One earlier on the day with a last to first flourish. At 4-1 and 7-1 an exacta box was called for and while the race went according to form we felt we left something on the table when "Coronet" who had at least faced some good ones and City Style who beat us the last time we played a quad ran third and fourth! The exacta was bet down and the super paid $3000 which would have cost nothing given our infatuation with the top pair. We cashed minorly and stayed alive.

Sprint

Midnight Lute $7.40 ran to his works stopping the timer in one o seven and a half a heartbeat. Failure to single here was the error of the day; probably for many.

Turf

While we do not bash jocks it is a bit puzzling what Mr. Murtagh was doing with 8-5 favorite Soldier of Fortune. After an opening quarter in a normal :24 and change the rabbit laid down serious fractions with Murtagh all over him. A 22 and change second quarter was followed by a pair of 23 and change splits. Of course Gomez on the distance challenged Out of Control race rode him mercilessly and the favorite was cooked by the pole! No matter we were sitting pretty as pie on ten to one Eagle Mountain who we figured no more than a third of that and when the boy pulled the trigger it looked like we were home...briefly. Here comes Sir Michael ( Kalanisi, Pilsudski, Islington etc. ) with a colt that just won at a mile and a million sixteenths, getting big weight and a text book ride. The interior splits ( six panels in one o nine and change) and only one race in a year began to take their toll and we ended up second best. Conduit opened up a short enough price that we doubled a trio of deuces to our three in the last but he was a fortunate winner in his first try against older while stopping the clock in a sizzling 2:23 and change.

Classic

It was clear, early, that Curlin was not cruising along as he does on the dirt but he showed a ton of heart outmoving the "Colonel and assuming command while a bit wide. Alas when the second half of a race is as fast as the first half is you better have a serious turn of foot and the "Raven" has all of that and then some!! Raven's Pass ($29) got rider relief, Lasix and ran to that 130 timeform and his exceptional work over the Lingfield poly. We left this one on the table, made a little jingle but did not threaten the $2700 pick four inspite of having a decent handle on the sequence. Thanks for the comments and pm's. BBB

[blackthroatedwind]

Actually, he had one minor hit in the nearly two years since he told us he has an ROI of around $18 for every $2 bet. And, you're right, he cherry picks.....and still isn't successful. However, he had pretty strong overall opinions in this particular case. One could say he was due.

Regardless, he doesn't engage in discussions, and refuses to even accept the possibility that he needs to learn how to play....while lecturing others on what he perceives they don't understand.

However, and more importantly, it's time to go and see the new Charlie Kaufman movie.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by bellsbendboy

Conduit opened up a short enough price that we doubled a trio of deuces to our three in the last but he was a fortunate winner in his first try against older while stopping the clock in a sizzling 2:23 and change.

Huh? He galloped. How was he a " fortunate winner? "

You missed him. It happens. Don't try to diminish his performance.

[the_fat_man]

Conduit 'WIPED OUT' the field and he was (along with DANCING FOREVER -- who actually earned my respect by RUNNING a bit) the only horse to run from off the pace.

To consider his win 'fortunate' is to miss the point.

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

who ever 'we' is hes going broke...

[Bogey]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

One crucial point has seemingly been missed.......had Conduit's rider not carried a buzzer, Eagle Mountain would have won, and BBB would have hit his Pick-4.

Conduit was plugged in? Damn