The Triple Crown that got away from Afleet Alex

[RollerDoc]

Didn't Afleet Alex lose the Kentucky Derby by 1 1/2 lengths (placing 3rd) in 2005? Then he wins the Preakness and Belmont very convincingly.

Sorry for being the Monday morning quarterback but from what I understand, he could have won the Derby but I seem to recall Jeremy Rose taking the blame for the poor strategy, and it wasn't the horse.

Doe anyone know what the biggest mistake of that race was for Afleet Alex?

Also, wasn't the favorite that year Bellamy Road?

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by RollerDoc

Didn't Afleet Alex lose the Kentucky Derby by 1 1/2 lengths (placing 3rd) in 2005? Then he wins the Preakness and Belmont very convincingly.

Sorry for being the Monday morning quarterback but from what I understand, he could have won the Derby but I seem to recall Jeremy Rose taking the blame for the poor strategy, and it wasn't the horse.

Doe anyone know what the biggest mistake of that race was for Afleet Alex?

Also, wasn't the favorite that year Bellamy Road?

I think it may have had something to do with him running down on the inside, which might not have been the ideal part of the track that day.

Its funny all the lamenting that goes on about "what could have been" in many TC years. What if Spectacular Bid hadn't stepped on a saftey pin? What if Risen Star had gotten a better trip in the Derby? What if Alysheba was allowed to race on Lasix in NY? What if Tabasco Cat hadn't sat down on his haunches in the gate before the start of the Derby? What if the "real" Point Given had shown up at CD? What if Charismatic didn't break his leg? What if Desormeaux didn't move Real Quiet so soon? What if War Emblem had a clean break? What if Funny Cide wasn't rank off a patented Tagg-disapproved final workout?

So much regret that there is strong support to re-tailor the TC to make it more attainable, particularly in years such as this where a clearly dominant member of the 3yo crop emerges. But no matter what changes are proposed, you can never weed out one of the key factors that determine the outcome of any race, not just an entire Triple Crown: racing luck.

Ironically enough, the overcoming of adversity is what sticks out in a lot of memories of the classics (eg Seattle Slew's botched start, Alysheba's midstretch heel-clipping, Touch Gold's reversal of fortune in the Belmont after his disastrous Preakness, Rags To Riches gender, etc) , whether or not the TC is won.

As far as Afleet Alex goes, if you take away his dramatic knees-to-the-ground stumble in the Preakness, then you deflate his total TC performance much more than you would bolster it by wondering what would have happened if maneuvered a bit differently at Churchill on a day where he was decidedly flat.

[10 pnt move up]

hindsight being 20/20 he moved to early. That's why the triple crown is so special, you have to have everything go your way, the horse, etc. He was by far the best of the crop and just got a bit unlucky. I would not blame Rose at all, its just the way it played out.

[KirisClown]

Maybe it wasnt the greatest of trips/rides, but he had every chance in the world to win the Derby from the head of the stretch to the wire.. he just couldnt do it.

[Port Conway Lane]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

hindsight being 20/20 he moved to early. That's why the triple crown is so special, you have to have everything go your way, the horse, etc. He was by far the best of the crop and just got a bit unlucky. I would not blame Rose at all, its just the way it played out.

Closing Argument moved at the same time AA did and ran the best race in that derby.

Hindsight does make it easy to make jockeys the scapegoats. Franklin was deserved but I'm not totally convinced Elliot was and Real Quiet got nipped by a good horse who got a great ride.

[Bogey]

First of all, great timing on this post with the triple crown a couple of days away.

I have to chime in here because I was close to the connections and spent over a week with Afleet Alex at Lone Star in preparation for the 2004 BC Juvy.

On that particular Derby Day (2005), the rail was dead. That last dirt race prior to the Derby was the Humana Distaff in which Madcap Escapade was odds on and looked unbeatable, but she had a rail trip that cost her the race IMO. It looked like she was running in quick sand.

I'm not one to blame jockeys, but Jeremy thought it was his only option at that split second. There's no doubt in my mind that AA was the best that afternoon as well. After the Belmont, Tim Ritchey had plans to run AA in the Travers and he had a future on the lawn. A very special horse that I consider my all time favorite.

I agree with others, the racing gods have to be on your side.

[miraja2]

My take on that ride has always been that Rose gave him a ride that was not bad in a general sense, but it was specifically bad for the horse he was on. Afleet Alex did his best running when he made one big, off-the-pace run, like he did in the Arkansas, the Preakness, and the Belmont.
Especially with the pace that day, Rose probably should have let the horse relax and fall farther back early. Instead, he kept him moving forward into that wicked pace rather early in the race.
To me, that was a bigger reason for his defeat than the decision to take to the rail near the end.

So, SHOULD Afleet Alex have won the Triple Crown? I can certainly see people making that argument, but the bottom line is that his trip in the Derby wasn't awful and if he had been more mulit-dimensional, he probably would have won the race.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

I think it may have had something to do with him running down on the inside, which might not have been the ideal part of the track that day.

A man of your stature should't fall for a phony dead rail excuse.

I wish I could turn back the clock to the 70s, and the dead rails of Belmont, so people could see what a dead rail really looks like.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

The one in Erie has been pretty epic.

[blackthroatedwind]

On a real dead rail horses evaporate when racing inside.

[slotdirt]

Originally Posted by Bogey

On that particular Derby Day (2005), the rail was dead. That last dirt race prior to the Derby was the Humana Distaff in which Madcap Escapade was odds on and looked unbeatable, but she had a rail trip that cost her the race IMO. It looked like she was running in quick sand.

Ed Zachary.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

On a real dead rail horses evaporate when racing inside.

They had been for almost two weeks - untill almost suddenly no one would go down there anymore.

Hard to call it a dead rail though when no one is remotely near it....except maybe Fogelsonger every now and then.

[King Glorious]

It gets very hard for me to say that Alex should have won the Derby when I felt that Closing Argument ran a harder and tougher race than he did. Same thing with Silver Charm. Baffert and SC's fans talk about his heart and say that if he could have seen Touch Gold coming to him, he would have fought him off. That may be true........but what about the fact that SC shouldn't even have been going for the sweep because Touch Gold was far superior to him in the Preakness but had a nightmare of a trip that day?

[johnny pinwheel]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

hindsight being 20/20 he moved to early. That's why the triple crown is so special, you have to have everything go your way, the horse, etc. He was by far the best of the crop and just got a bit unlucky. I would not blame Rose at all, its just the way it played out.

i agree. i went to that derby and bet bellamy road (yikes) but afleet alex was the crops best horse. the way he won the hopeful and preakness were amazing. he was moving early but he also got stuck on the inside, with traffic. like someone said its not just talent , racing luck plays a big part to win all 3.

[VOL JACK]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

They had been for almost two weeks - untill almost suddenly no one would go down there anymore.

Hard to call it a dead rail though when no one is remotely near it....except maybe Fogelsonger every now and then.

M Mena didnt get the memo.

[slotdirt]

I love it when PID posts hijack a Triple Crown thread. That's good stuff.

[Thunder Gulch]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

On a real dead rail horses evaporate when racing inside.

I was a big fan of AA and use the rail to excuse him hanging, though he may have just been out of gas. Giacomo and Closing argument were to his outside and the Giacomo and AA were on almost even terms with 1/16 to go when Rose goes to the right handed whip, AA goes in a little and spins his wheels. Maybe I just want to see it that way, but the case can be made. It rained all week at Churchill that week and the rail was a bit heavy if nothing else.

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

A man of your stature should't fall for a phony dead rail excuse.

I wish I could turn back the clock to the 70s, and the dead rails of Belmont, so people could see what a dead rail really looks like.

The winner of the race was on the rail for a mile so not sure I think it was dead either.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

I love it when PID posts hijack a Triple Crown thread. That's good stuff.

Threads evolve - this one was only about the 740,000th about why AA lost the Derby - to the supposed dead rail that did him and madcap escapade in - to the great dead rails of the 70's - to the great dead rails of the new synthetic era.

Not every thread can be epic - if that was the case all we'd ever have to talk about is how amazingly good looking I am.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

The winner of the race was on the rail for a mile so not sure I think it was dead either.

I remember Giacomo getting shut off at the start - and being quite wide around the first turn.