Hollywood Park Friday Night 5/16/08. Early Pick 4

[bigjag0716]

I know it's still a bit early, but I was handicapping the card for Hol tomorrow night. This my current Early Pick 4 ticket.

Race 1. 1/4
Race 2. 2/7. thinking about taking out of those out for the 3 or 6.
Race 3. 1/4/10/12
Race 4. 3/4/8.

Total = $48. I would appreciate any feedback and opinions on who I should maybe take out or add. Thanks.

[pick4]

Originally Posted by bigjag0716

I know it's still a bit early, but I was handicapping the card for Hol tomorrow night. This my current Early Pick 4 ticket.

Race 1. 1/4
Race 2. 2/7. thinking about taking out of those out for the 3 or 6.
Race 3. 1/4/10/12
Race 4. 3/4/8.

Total = $48. I would appreciate any feedback and opinions on who I should maybe take out or add. Thanks.

Quest Venture wired a nw2x field on 2/16 at Santa Anita then there is a 59 day gap till his 4/25 work. He's coming off an impressive win, the huge gap, and now he's for sale for 40k. He's probably going to be a heavy favorite and it looks like he should blitz this field. However I see more negatives than positives with him. I'll look at the race more closely tomorrow. This heavy chalk is no sure thing and if we can come up with the winner the early multi race wagers could give us a nice bankroll for Saturday's races.

[Rootdog1]

I love it...I am looking at the early 4 right now.

Agreed on the first race, although a bit worried Frankel has something up his sleeve with two in here.

The second is tough...use but cant trust the fav. You know he will be up front so gonna have to be someone in the second flight to beat him at the wire...maybe One on the House? Maybe Brave Sun?

In the 3rd, I have been betting (and losing) on Toppers Smiling the last 3 races. Watch them..Baze stops riding in the lane, so either they are setting this one up for a win at a price or she has some "issues" and they dont want to press it. I tend to think this one shows up big tomorrow night since Baze stays. Also have to use Excessive Tale due to T/J combo. Although a lot of speed, so it could fall apart up front. Have not figured who could come late and pick up the pieces.

The 4th...I'm on 4,5,6 and maybe the 3.

Still looking, but good luck

[pick4]

There is a lack of early lick in the 1st unless you think Buzzin Mon runs two turns like his one turn races. He has legit excuses in those two distance races for lagging behind. He broke poorly in his two turn debut and that was off a layoff. His next attempt at running a distance might have been doomed with him breaking from the 12 post.

Buzzin Mon is on the rail this time and has an new jock in Mike Baze. In addition he has the Smith off angle going for him. If Buzzin Mon rolls right out of the gate he might be able to get an easy early lead and could be tough to run down.

[bigjag0716]

Thanks for the feedback.

The first race, besides the 4 horse, I was torn between the 1/5 and 6. Myself only wanting to go 2 deep in the race had to throw out 2 of those runners, not sure if i'm making the correct choice though throwing out the 5 and 6. They look like contenders, but haven't showed me enough to really include in my pick 4.


The chalk in the 2nd race scares me. I'm actually thinking about throwing him out and taking a chance, but he might just outclass this field. I hate the fact that he's coming off of a win and is dropping down in class. He might just out talent the field, though. The 3 or the 6 in the 2nd race are my logical replacements. I think I will keep the 7 in my ticket because I love his tatical racing style.


The 3rd race..after looking at it over again. I believe I might take out the 4 for Topper's Smiling. Like you said, the horse might finally put it together at a decent price.

4th race. I do like the 6 horse, but he's come in too many 2nd's and 3rd's for me to take him at the short price he is going to be. Going to take my stand against him. Also not a big fan of the 5 for some reason. I do love the 4, though.

Good luck man! Any opinions on races 5-8 would be appreciated also. 2nd half of the card is also tough. I can't wait.

[bigjag0716]

Also my top 3 choices so far for races 5-8. (no particular order)

Race 5. 3/2/7.
Race 6. 2/4/12
Race 7. 2/4/6
Race 8. 4/5/8.


That's just from glancing at the last 4 races, going to read over them again later tonight and tomorrow.

[bigjag0716]

Originally Posted by pick4

There is a lack of early lick in the 1st unless you think Buzzin Mon runs two turns like his one turn races. He has legit excuses in those two distance races for lagging behind. He broke poorly in his two turn debut and that was off a layoff. His next attempt at running a distance might have been doomed with him breaking from the 12 post.

Buzzin Mon is on the rail this time and has an new jock in Mike Baze. In addition he has the Smith off angle going for him. If Buzzin Mon rolls right out of the gate he might be able to get an easy early lead and could be tough to run down.

Exactly the reason why I picked him over the other two horses I mentioned

[pick4]

Originally Posted by Rootdog1

I love it...I am looking at the early 4 right now.

Agreed on the first race, although a bit worried Frankel has something up his sleeve with two in here.

The second is tough...use but cant trust the fav. You know he will be up front so gonna have to be someone in the second flight to beat him at the wire...maybe One on the House? Maybe Brave Sun?

In the 3rd, I have been betting (and losing) on Toppers Smiling the last 3 races. Watch them..Baze stops riding in the lane, so either they are setting this one up for a win at a price or she has some "issues" and they dont want to press it. I tend to think this one shows up big tomorrow night since Baze stays. Also have to use Excessive Tale due to T/J combo. Although a lot of speed, so it could fall apart up front. Have not figured who could come late and pick up the pieces.

The 4th...I'm on 4,5,6 and maybe the 3.

Still looking, but good luck

The 3rd race stinks.. but what do you think about Excessive Tales long vacation. Monteleone is a decent off the claim but something had to go wrong to take a 3 month break between works. Is 5 1/2 too short? Could this be a tightener for a longer race next out?

Topper's Smiling has had two races and might be setup for a better race this time as this field is weaker than either of the two he ran against over at Santa Anita.

[bigjag0716]

I agree about the 10 horse in the 3rd race, but the race stinks so bad. She's shaky when it comes to winning also. I had to include her in my pick 4, just because the quality of the race is terrible. If you can come up with another horse that you think might be solid enough to throw out the 10 please share.

[pick4]

Originally Posted by bigjag0716

I agree about the 10 horse in the 3rd race, but the race stinks so bad. She's shaky when it comes to winning also. I had to include her in my pick 4, just because the quality of the race is terrible. If you can come up with another horse that you think might be solid enough to throw out the 10 please share.

After a good night sleep and a day at work I'll be in better shape to look at the 3rd race. I'm a bit horsed out from looking at pp's to dissect the 3rd and 4th races.

The 6 is a first time gelding in the 1st, I wouldn't toss. The surface switch and FTG might be enough to wake this one up.

[-BT-]

Originally Posted by pick4

There is a lack of early lick in the 1st unless you think Buzzin Mon runs two turns like his one turn races. He has legit excuses in those two distance races for lagging behind. He broke poorly in his two turn debut and that was off a layoff. His next attempt at running a distance might have been doomed with him breaking from the 12 post.

Buzzin Mon is on the rail this time and has an new jock in Mike Baze. In addition he has the Smith off angle going for him. If Buzzin Mon rolls right out of the gate he might be able to get an easy early lead and could be tough to run down.

saw this horse race last saturday in the first race, the horse got cross body blocked from someone on the outside veering in, lost momentum and re-rallied almost to the point of running down the winner. Not saying he's the winner but i wouldn't single the chalk here by no means

I took a glance at this last night as well
my structure is probably gonna be something like
2x2x5x3
the 3rd race is about as low and low can get

-bt-

[Rootdog1]

a few big scratches
Race 2 #2 Quest Venture
Race 6 #2 Master Cat

[bigjag0716]

Actually a bit happy Quest Venture is scratched. Who to include now? The Arizona Shipper or the 6 horse?

[-BT-]

let's get the ball rolling
no high life light for me tonight, got way too much studying to do for tom.

R1) PK3/PK4

14
67
1468 10
468

gl all

-bt-

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by Rootdog1

a few big scratches
Race 2 #2 Quest Venture
Race 6 #2 Master Cat

where did you get Quest Venture scratched? he's still showing up on twinspires although Master cat is scratched.

[tiggerv]

Hollywood Park
Spring/Summer Meet – Day 18
Friday, May 16, 2008
First Post: 7:05 PM (PDT)

Track: Cushion
Turf: Firm – rail at 20 feet

$150,000 Guaranteed Pick 4 – Presented by TVG
Races 5-8

PROGRAM CHANGES

Race 1:
Overweight - #4+2

Race 2:
Scratch - #2 Quest Venture

Race 3:
Scratch - #3 Wins the Prize

Race 4:
Scratch - #1 Forgiveandforget
Scratch - #3 Malabar Star

Race 5:
Scratch - #4 Jack Hes Tops

Race 6:
Scratch - #2 Master Cat
Scratch - #6 Sir Franchise
Scratch - #14 Premier Won
Scratch - #15 Procuna
Scratch - #16 Quacker Jack
Jockey - #8 TBA

Race 7:
No Program Changes

Race 8:
Overweight - #9+6

[SCUDSBROTHER]

Like the late p4 better. Those skanks in the 3rd make it tough.

[ArlJim78]

omg! its Bikini Beach mile night, after the sixth. no doubt one of the greatest races you'll ever see. i love the post parades.

[MaTH716]

Pick 3 & 4
4,5
6,7
2,10,12
6,7,8

Good Luck!