Derby Trail Forums

Go Back   Derby Trail Forums > Main Forum > The Paddock
Register FAQ Members List Calendar Today's Posts

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #1  
Old 03-06-2008, 08:08 PM
hoovesupsideyourhead's Avatar
hoovesupsideyourhead hoovesupsideyourhead is offline
"The Kentucky Killing Machine"
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: florida
Posts: 16,278
Default handicapping 101 big days..on track

here is a lesson on how not to get your ass handed to you on big stakes days.. on track..

rule 1. dont think the horses your betting are any more reliable than normal..

rule 2. dont drink too much and fire like your bill gates..your not and a bad AND impaired opinion is worse than a regular bad OPINION

rule 3. take it easy..enjoy the track soak it.. in so you miss a race ..you would have lost..knocking 3 kids out of the way to make the opener at gs is just in bad taste..

rule 4. LISTEN TO NOONE!! BET WHO YOU LIKE..YOU WILL FEEL BETTER!!

some idiot making a case for a horse that has no shot is danger.. stay away from these people..they will mess with your head and they will lose and you will too..

rule 5. if your gonna drink .. bet early ..make your plays and let them ride


rule 6 group capping

it does not work unless you are with a bunch of people who win .alot..

good luck hooves
Reply With Quote
  #2  
Old 03-06-2008, 08:46 PM
rontheman1964 rontheman1964 is offline
Tropical Park
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Lincoln, Nebraska
Posts: 266
Default

Great advice. Every year when I go to Derby Day, the same guy with me gets ahead on a horse he has picked out from his studying the night before. Then he decides to bet a ton on a wayyyyyy overbet favorite to make some easy money. The horse runs up the track. He gets pissed and starts firing bigger shots chasing the money he already had in his pocket. Always ends up the same sad way. For some reason he thinks a 3-5 shot on Derby Day is more reliable than a 3-5 shot on any other day.
__________________
Like a famous coach once said, "There's no "I" in TEAM.....but there is "U" in SUCK."
Reply With Quote
  #3  
Old 03-06-2008, 09:01 PM
hoovesupsideyourhead's Avatar
hoovesupsideyourhead hoovesupsideyourhead is offline
"The Kentucky Killing Machine"
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: florida
Posts: 16,278
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by rontheman1964
Great advice. Every year when I go to Derby Day, the same guy with me gets ahead on a horse he has picked out from his studying the night before. Then he decides to bet a ton on a wayyyyyy overbet favorite to make some easy money. The horse runs up the track. He gets pissed and starts firing bigger shots chasing the money he already had in his pocket. Always ends up the same sad way. For some reason he thinks a 3-5 shot on Derby Day is more reliable than a 3-5 shot on any other day.
that guy will allways lose...
Reply With Quote
  #4  
Old 03-06-2008, 09:29 PM
Coach Pants
 
Posts: n/a
Default

Always bet the seben.
Reply With Quote
  #5  
Old 03-06-2008, 09:44 PM
Cajungator26's Avatar
Cajungator26 Cajungator26 is offline
Keeneland
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Hossy's Mom's basement.
Posts: 10,217
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by hoovesupsideyourhead
here is a lesson on how not to get your ass handed to you on big stakes days.. on track..

rule 1. dont think the horses your betting are any more reliable than normal..

rule 2. dont drink too much and fire like your bill gates..your not and a bad AND impaired opinion is worse than a regular bad OPINION

rule 3. take it easy..enjoy the track soak it.. in so you miss a race ..you would have lost..knocking 3 kids out of the way to make the opener at gs is just in bad taste..

rule 4. LISTEN TO NOONE!! BET WHO YOU LIKE..YOU WILL FEEL BETTER!!

some idiot making a case for a horse that has no shot is danger.. stay away from these people..they will mess with your head and they will lose and you will too..

rule 5. if your gonna drink .. bet early ..make your plays and let them ride


rule 6 group capping

it does not work unless you are with a bunch of people who win .alot..

good luck hooves
Oops.
Reply With Quote
  #6  
Old 03-06-2008, 10:12 PM
AeWingnut's Avatar
AeWingnut AeWingnut is offline
Atlantic City Race Course
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Suddenly
Posts: 4,828
Default

Rule ?

think long think wrong

I find the best horse then try and beat him

You know who is going to win the race you just have to listen to yourself

bet a lot on your winners and a little on your losers
__________________
ΜΟΛΩΝ ΛΑΒΕ
Reply With Quote
  #7  
Old 03-06-2008, 11:01 PM
wac wac is offline
Aqueduct
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 616
Default

The problem i have on days like KD is that once i get that awful 1st mint juliup down the 2nd,3rd,4th...........14th go down so smooth and it helps put me in a festive mood. i cap pretty hard the night before so i already have a pretty good idea who im betting on but still pay attention enough to see the odds and if somthing jumps out at me i'll play it. Worked with Giacomo, Bluegrass cat and hard spun horses whose odds just didn't seem right with what i thought i knew. Or hell, maybe i was just hammered and got lucky. I know i did with Giacomo but the other 2s odds just didnt seem right at post time too me. Dammit it wouldn't be KD if i didn't get smashed on those awful friggin mint juilups. That new drink they have had the past couple of year think its called a lilly with cranberry, vodka some 7up and some blueberries in it is pretty damn tasty as well. Man i can't wait!!!!
Reply With Quote
  #8  
Old 03-07-2008, 07:39 AM
GBBob GBBob is offline
Hialeah Park
 
Join Date: Jun 2007
Posts: 6,342
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by hoovesupsideyourhead
here is a lesson on how not to get your ass handed to you on big stakes days.. on track..

rule 1. dont think the horses your betting are any more reliable than normal..

rule 2. dont drink too much and fire like your bill gates..your not and a bad AND impaired opinion is worse than a regular bad OPINION
rule 3. take it easy..enjoy the track soak it.. in so you miss a race ..you would have lost..knocking 3 kids out of the way to make the opener at gs is just in bad taste..

rule 4. LISTEN TO NOONE!! BET WHO YOU LIKE..YOU WILL FEEL BETTER!!

some idiot making a case for a horse that has no shot is danger.. stay away from these people..they will mess with your head and they will lose and you will too..

rule 5. if your gonna drink .. bet early ..make your plays and let them ride


rule 6 group capping

it does not work unless you are with a bunch of people who win .alot..

good luck hooves

Is that why you were feeding me jack and cokes at 10AM at the BC?
__________________
"but there's just no point in trying to predict when the narcissits finally figure out they aren't living in the most important time ever."
hi im god quote
Reply With Quote
  #9  
Old 03-07-2008, 07:44 AM
swedejxn swedejxn is offline
Sheepshead Bay
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Gulf Shores, AL
Posts: 1,080
Default

Drinking seems to be a downfall to many....

from hooves bill gates "impared" bad opinion

cajun's ooooops

wac's mint julep party....

wac.... I think it was George Burns who said " It only takes one drink to get me drunk.... but I can't remember if it's the 13th or the 14th..."

I agree with rule 5.... bet early.... enjoy the libations late...

and notice the new "signature"... rather appropriate...

good luck this weekend folks....
__________________
I feel sorry for people who don't drink. They wake up in the morning and that's the best they are going to feel all day. Frank Sinatra
Reply With Quote
  #10  
Old 03-07-2008, 07:45 AM
hoovesupsideyourhead's Avatar
hoovesupsideyourhead hoovesupsideyourhead is offline
"The Kentucky Killing Machine"
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: florida
Posts: 16,278
Default

that was rule 3..
Reply With Quote
  #11  
Old 03-07-2008, 09:03 AM
ateamstupid's Avatar
ateamstupid ateamstupid is offline
Super Mod.. and Super Fly
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Brooklyn, NY
Posts: 13,036
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by hoovesupsideyourhead
here is a lesson on how not to get your ass handed to you on big stakes days.. on track..

rule 1. dont think the horses your betting are any more reliable than normal..

rule 2. dont drink too much and fire like your bill gates..your not and a bad AND impaired opinion is worse than a regular bad OPINION

rule 3. take it easy..enjoy the track soak it.. in so you miss a race ..you would have lost..knocking 3 kids out of the way to make the opener at gs is just in bad taste..

rule 4. LISTEN TO NOONE!! BET WHO YOU LIKE..YOU WILL FEEL BETTER!!

some idiot making a case for a horse that has no shot is danger.. stay away from these people..they will mess with your head and they will lose and you will too..

rule 5. if your gonna drink .. bet early ..make your plays and let them ride


rule 6 group capping

it does not work unless you are with a bunch of people who win .alot..

good luck hooves
You forgot the most important rule.

DON'T PLAY THE PICK SIX THE DAY BEFORE.
Reply With Quote
  #12  
Old 03-07-2008, 04:40 PM
TheSpyder's Avatar
TheSpyder TheSpyder is offline
Del Mar
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Nothing could be finer
Posts: 5,140
Default

I work very well on three bourbons..it's just getting there and the small amount of time before the fourth.

Spyder
__________________
Don't sweat the petty things and don't pet the sweaty things.
Reply With Quote
  #13  
Old 03-07-2008, 04:53 PM
hoovesupsideyourhead's Avatar
hoovesupsideyourhead hoovesupsideyourhead is offline
"The Kentucky Killing Machine"
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: florida
Posts: 16,278
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by ateamstupid
You forgot the most important rule.

DON'T PLAY THE PICK SIX THE DAY BEFORE.
no doubt joe...
Reply With Quote
  #14  
Old 03-08-2008, 07:52 AM
Thunder Gulch's Avatar
Thunder Gulch Thunder Gulch is offline
Churchill Downs
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Southland Greyhound Park
Posts: 1,846
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by wac
The problem i have on days like KD is that once i get that awful 1st mint juliup down the 2nd,3rd,4th...........14th go down so smooth and it helps put me in a festive mood. i cap pretty hard the night before so i already have a pretty good idea who im betting on but still pay attention enough to see the odds and if somthing jumps out at me i'll play it. Worked with Giacomo, Bluegrass cat and hard spun horses whose odds just didn't seem right with what i thought i knew. Or hell, maybe i was just hammered and got lucky. I know i did with Giacomo but the other 2s odds just didnt seem right at post time too me. Dammit it wouldn't be KD if i didn't get smashed on those awful friggin mint juilups. That new drink they have had the past couple of year think its called a lilly with cranberry, vodka some 7up and some blueberries in it is pretty damn tasty as well. Man i can't wait!!!!
I take Thursday off of work every year before the Derby trip to spend all day capping Friday and Saturday. As the week goes by, I check the charts to see how the track is playing so I take a measure against a developing bias. I typically start Saturday off playing the first two or three races , then bet the entire card by the 4th so I can avoid the lines and not let any bad beat change my play.
__________________
Do I think Charity can win? Well, I am walking around in yesterday's suit.
Reply With Quote
  #15  
Old 03-08-2008, 10:53 AM
Oaklawnfan's Avatar
Oaklawnfan Oaklawnfan is offline
Golden Gate
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: Childhood home of Brad Pitt
Posts: 368
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by hoovesupsideyourhead
here is a lesson on how not to get your ass handed to you on big stakes days.. on track..

rule 1. dont think the horses your betting are any more reliable than normal..

rule 2. dont drink too much and fire like your bill gates..your not and a bad AND impaired opinion is worse than a regular bad OPINION

rule 3. take it easy..enjoy the track soak it.. in so you miss a race ..you would have lost..knocking 3 kids out of the way to make the opener at gs is just in bad taste..

rule 4. LISTEN TO NOONE!! BET WHO YOU LIKE..YOU WILL FEEL BETTER!!

some idiot making a case for a horse that has no shot is danger.. stay away from these people..they will mess with your head and they will lose and you will too..

rule 5. if your gonna drink .. bet early ..make your plays and let them ride


rule 6 group capping

it does not work unless you are with a bunch of people who win .alot..

good luck hooves
Thank you for this awesome post. It is "real life", refreshing and right to the point. Some of the best advice out there. Derby Day hits you like getting off the plane in Las Vegas looking to make your first slot hit.
Reply With Quote
  #16  
Old 04-28-2008, 06:23 PM
hoovesupsideyourhead's Avatar
hoovesupsideyourhead hoovesupsideyourhead is offline
"The Kentucky Killing Machine"
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: florida
Posts: 16,278
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by hoovesupsideyourhead
here is a lesson on how not to get your ass handed to you on big stakes days.. on track..

rule 1. dont think the horses your betting are any more reliable than normal..

rule 2. dont drink too much and fire like your bill gates..your not and a bad AND impaired opinion is worse than a regular bad OPINION

rule 3. take it easy..enjoy the track soak it.. in so you miss a race ..you would have lost..knocking 3 kids out of the way to make the opener at gs is just in bad taste..

rule 4. LISTEN TO NOONE!! BET WHO YOU LIKE..YOU WILL FEEL BETTER!!

some idiot making a case for a horse that has no shot is danger.. stay away from these people..they will mess with your head and they will lose and you will too..

rule 5. if your gonna drink .. bet early ..make your plays and let them ride


rule 6 group capping

it does not work unless you are with a bunch of people who win .alot..

good luck hooves

thought id bump this ...its allmost time............
Reply With Quote
  #17  
Old 04-28-2008, 06:54 PM
johnny pinwheel johnny pinwheel is offline
Woodbine
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: saratoga ny
Posts: 986
Default

those are great rules, although i've broken almost all of them
Reply With Quote
  #18  
Old 04-28-2008, 06:57 PM
jwkniska's Avatar
jwkniska jwkniska is offline
Fairgrounds
 
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: Mt. Prospect, IL (AP)
Posts: 1,578
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by swedejxn
Drinking seems to be a downfall to many....

from hooves bill gates "impared" bad opinion

cajun's ooooops

wac's mint julep party....

wac.... I think it was George Burns who said " It only takes one drink to get me drunk.... but I can't remember if it's the 13th or the 14th..."

I agree with rule 5.... bet early.... enjoy the libations late...

and notice the new "signature"... rather appropriate...

good luck this weekend folks....
here's the line... I only had two... the first and the last.
Reply With Quote
  #19  
Old 04-28-2008, 08:54 PM
Pedigree Ann's Avatar
Pedigree Ann Pedigree Ann is offline
Churchill Downs
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Lexington, KY
Posts: 1,776
Default

I'm not even 'capping the Derby and Oaks cards if I am not going to be able to bet them online. Some of us can't run to the OTB parlor whenever we want. Any news on the negotiation front?
Reply With Quote
  #20  
Old 04-28-2008, 08:58 PM
blackthroatedwind blackthroatedwind is offline
Jerome Park
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 9,938
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Pedigree Ann
I'm not even 'capping the Derby and Oaks cards if I am not going to be able to bet them online. Some of us can't run to the OTB parlor whenever we want. Any news on the negotiation front?

Your handicapping comes the day after the races are run anyways.

If they open an OTB for those bets you'll be in business.
__________________
Just more nebulous nonsense from BBB
Reply With Quote
Reply



Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

vB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Forum Jump


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 07:53 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.6.8
Copyright ©2000 - 2025, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.