Kip Deville to dominate the VA derby

mp3 · #1 07-11-2006, 08:24 PM

Many here, especially boldruler said ieah pissed 500k away on the son of kipling. Already earned back 200k and the likely favorite in the 1m va derby. Spoke with those boys today and they just had a press conference with the ntra. They are flying down in a private jet, leaving at 6.30 after the va derby and are flying straight to canterbury as they have the odds on fav in the claiming crown. then flying home. they are clearly the hottest partnership out there. There website shows purses over 1m dollars already putting among the top 15 earners in the country going into a big weekend for them. I have bought one horse with them...holly time and he won in his first start for me a will run aug. 6 at the spa.....jeff

randallscott35 · #2 07-11-2006, 08:38 PM

He's not winning. It all looks too easy on paper, no speed lined up, huge race over the surface---no thanks, too good to be true. Off the board.

mp3 · #3 07-11-2006, 08:41 PM

that sounds like a sophisticated analysis

randallscott35 · #4 07-11-2006, 08:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mp3

that sounds like a sophisticated analysis

LOL. It is actually. I haven't seen his thoro yet, but why can't he bounce here. Sorry I'm not swallowing 3-1 on him back off that effort. But please dig in.

#5 07-11-2006, 08:45 PM

Easily the horse to beat if he can negotiate the added ground....lone speed, good jock change, second-time Dutrow....looks tough to me and I don't even like the horse much...

mp3 · #6 07-11-2006, 08:46 PM

ran a 5 on the sheets two back for mike neatherlin, ran a 7 for dutrow in the col cup. should actually move forward as he bounced in his last. Dutrow has also had enough time with him now to have him razor sharp and i am hearing he is on his game. breezed 59 on the dirt yesterday as well.

randallscott35 · #7 07-11-2006, 08:48 PM

Without seeing his overall pattern I can't tell you whether I think he'll move forward. I'm not denying how it looks, but when a race screams no speed, somebody is liable to go with him. Especially now that he's not 25-1. He is the hunted now, not somebody the jocks will simply let get away.

mp3 · #8 07-11-2006, 08:51 PM

agreed he has to be dealt with but who wants to run with him? more importantly who can and live to tell about it

#9 07-11-2006, 08:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mp3

agreed he has to be dealt with but who wants to run with him? more importantly who can and live to tell about it

Additionally, who can go 1:09 and four into the far turn for the first six furlongs, because that is what it'll take to be anywhere close to him as they turn for home....I don't see anyone fast enough, really...

#10 07-11-2006, 08:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mp3

Many here, especially boldruler said ieah pissed 500k away on the son of kipling. Already earned back 200k and the likely favorite in the 1m va derby. Spoke with those boys today and they just had a press conference with the ntra. They are flying down in a private jet, leaving at 6.30 after the va derby and are flying straight to canterbury as they have the odds on fav in the claiming crown. then flying home. they are clearly the hottest partnership out there. There website shows purses over 1m dollars already putting among the top 15 earners in the country going into a big weekend for them. I have bought one horse with them...holly time and he won in his first start for me a will run aug. 6 at the spa.....jeff

I believe i said I thought they overpaid for him and that he was running for second or third money because Showing Up would win. It looks like I was right about Showing Up and wrong about their investment. Showing Up just destroyed him in the Colonial Cup.

Showing Up is just a better horse than KD. He proved it a couple weeks ago. KD is the Sinister Minister of the grass. He could win a few nice races but he could never beat the top grass horses because he can't rate. Showing Up has an explosive turn of foot and he can rate. That is why is a far better animal. Showing Up is going next in a grade 1, KD is not likely to ever see a grade 1. The top older horses would mow him down, just like Showing Up did. Don't be surprised if they mow him down again this weekend. On the turf, a front runner like KD is only capable of beating a mediocre bunch. He seems to have that this weekend, so he has a shot.

#11 07-11-2006, 09:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cunningham Racing

Easily the horse to beat if he can negotiate the added ground....lone speed, good jock change, second-time Dutrow....looks tough to me and I don't even like the horse much...

That added 1/16th is big trouble for a horse like him. If Steppenwolfer takes to the turf he will blow by him just like Showing Up did. They are just better horses.

Cajungator26 · #12 07-11-2006, 09:02 PM

I think he bounces. Off the board... JMO.

#13 07-11-2006, 09:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mp3

Many here, especially boldruler said ieah pissed 500k away on the son of kipling. Already earned back 200k and the likely favorite in the 1m va derby. Spoke with those boys today and they just had a press conference with the ntra. They are flying down in a private jet, leaving at 6.30 after the va derby and are flying straight to canterbury as they have the odds on fav in the claiming crown. then flying home. they are clearly the hottest partnership out there. There website shows purses over 1m dollars already putting among the top 15 earners in the country going into a big weekend for them. I have bought one horse with them...holly time and he won in his first start for me a will run aug. 6 at the spa.....jeff

Who was number 1 in earners in the country with two horses in the top 5?

IEAH is excellent though. Good luck with them.

mp3 · #14 07-11-2006, 09:07 PM

he is back...where is showing up? let me guess it will be 95degrees in va this weekend, that is to hot for tagg. I mean it was only 94 in the col cup. Another thing, KD can dipose of SU, post 14, crazy fractions, missed breezes, barn change, inexperienced rider, still only beat 3. you make showing up to be john henry, Kd did all the work and back ready in 3 weeks. SU passes on the 1m to run in the 4ook. let me guess, that makes sense because it is a grade one or he expects a blizzard in chicago. Usually a cool place in august. Sounds like a bunch of crap to me..

#15 07-11-2006, 09:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mp3

agreed he has to be dealt with but who wants to run with him? more importantly who can and live to tell about it

Good horse don't need to. I think that was proven a few weeks back. Another 1/16th last race and he loses by 10 and finishes 6th or 7th.

#16 07-11-2006, 09:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by boldruler

That added 1/16th is big trouble for a horse like him. If Steppenwolfer takes to the turf he will blow by him just like Showing Up did. They are just better horses.

I beleive Steppenwolfer is a fraud...never liked this horse and never will....when La-Breds beat him an an entry-level allowance at FG earlier this year, I knew he was a fake....He is just an Impeachment special...a clunk-up horse or plodder....He could take to the grass and still easily lose this race...he won't be within 20 lengths of KD down the backstretch.....

mp3 · #17 07-11-2006, 09:11 PM

the extra sixteenth means nothing. It is the way the race plays out that will determine its result. If nobody leaves with him the distance won't matter, it may actually help him because many of these horses have never been close to a mile and a quarter and there riders will restrain them even harder earlier

Cajungator26 · #18 07-11-2006, 09:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cunningham Racing

I beleive Steppenwolfer is a fraud...never liked this horse and never will....when La-Breds beat him an an entry-level allowance at FG earlier this year, I knew he was a fake....He is just an Impeachment special...a clunk-up horse or plodder....He could take to the grass and still easily lose this race...he won't be within 20 lengths of KD down the backstretch.....

I disagree, Joel... we shall see.

#19 07-11-2006, 09:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cunningham Racing

I beleive Steppenwolfer is a fraud...never liked this horse and never will....when La-Breds beat him an an entry-level allowance at FG earlier this year, I knew he was a fake....He is just an Impeachment special...a clunk-up horse or plodder....He could take to the grass and still easily lose this race...he won't be within 20 lengths of KD down the backstretch.....

The right pace scenario, which he might get, makes him a player. Didn't he hit the board in the Derby? Tough to call him a fraud off that effort. I am leaning towards Go Between doing exactly what Showing Up did and running down KD.

Cajungator26 · #20 07-11-2006, 09:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mp3

the extra sixteenth means nothing. It is the way the race plays out that will determine its result. If nobody leaves with him the distance won't matter, it may actually help him because many of these horses have never been close to a mile and a quarter and there riders will restrain them even harder earlier

It doesn't always work that way. Sometimes a horse will burn up more energy being restrained than if they were let go... Kip Deville is a good example of that. IF he would have been rated (or attempted to be rated) last time out, he would have been burnt out. I like KD. I actually remember arguing with bold over his pedigree. With that said, I don't care for him in this race. No offense...