1/1: Santa Anita ($587k C/O)

[Kasept]

New Year's Eve carryover card at Arcadia proved as impossible as it looked going in, and a monster pot opens '08 with a $3,000,000+ pool likely by 5pm EST today..

Third leg (5th race) winner Latin Lobo ($73) was the biggest culprit in producing the double carry, and at first glance was a total headscratcher. The Petionville colt was making his 2nd start after an "off bit slow" uninvolved 9th in his debut, and Marcelo Polanco had won 6% in his last 34 2nd career starts according to DRF. But looking at Polanco's Thoro-Graph Trainer Profile stats, a couple of clues jump out and should be stored in the memory banks.

Within the T-G percentages, in his last 36 2nd starts, Polanco's runners had paired up performance figs 9 times (25%) and moved forward a stunning 18 times (50%). Polanco has been win cold, but has been getting pair ups and new "tops" to the tune of 68% of his 'last 90 days' starters (19 starts). Latin Lobo was only a handful of lengths behind the tops choices and merited more than a glance at 35-1. Given that he has been getting improvement or treading water without victories, the win may also signal that Polanco is primed for more winners at the prestigous Santa Anita meet... especially for highly demanding top client "Everest Stables".

Card Tuesday, which includes Gr. III El Conejo and Monrovia, appears more manageable for those looking to start the annum with a big score...


SANTA ANITA


Rolling DD through 9th; .10 Supers in all but 8th/10th..


5th: CLM, F&M-4+, 6.5f-DHT (P6, P3)

Best Value: #6 Miss Connie Sue 15-1
Most Likely: #12 LA TORMENTA 2-1 WON
Next Best: #11 La Matanza 5-1 4th
Exotics Add: #4 Formal Rush 8-1 2nd


6th: MSW, 3yo, 7f (P3)

Best Value: #5 Crown of Thornes 6-1 WON
Most Likely: #8 Masterwork 7-2 2nd
Next Best: #7 Square Deal 5-2 3rd
Exotics Add: #3 That's Grand 5-1


7th: ALW/N1X, F&M-4+, 9f-T (P4, P3)

Best Value: #10 ISLAND HOP 10-1
Most Likely: #5 Siamese Cat 7-2 WON
Next Best: #3 Forest Melody 9-2 3rd
Exotics Add: #9 Athena Two O Four 10-1


8th: Cal-bred OC/N1X, F&M-4+, 6.5f (P3)

Best Value & Most Likely: #7 Sunday Dress 4-1 WON
Next Best: #1 Sneaky Jack 3-1 2nd
Exotics Add: #2 Ask Sam 5-1


9th: 41st Monrovia (Gr. III), F&M-4+, 6.5f-DHT

Best Value: #7 Alexandra Rose 8-1 WON
Most Likely: #2 SCR
Next Best: #6 Audacious Chloe 3-1
Exotics Add: #10 Strong Faith 7-2


10th: MDN CLM, 4+, 6f (Hi-5)

Best Value: #5 PREMIER WON 8-1
Most Likely: #14 KICKIN BACK 6-1
Next Best: #7 Bertie Boy 12-1
Exotics Add: #11 Mas Hombre 8-1

<$50 Super High 5:

5-14/5-14 over 7-9-11-12

2x1x4x3x2 = $48


<$150 P6 Play:

5: 12
6: 7-8
7: 3-5-10
8: 1-7
9: 2-SCR-6-10
10: 5-14

1x2x3x2x2x2 = 36 x $2 = $72


<$50 P4 Play:

7: 3-5-10
8: 1-7
9: 2-SCR-6-7-10
10: 5-14

3x2x3x2 = $36


Good luck!
Steve

[swedejxn]

gonna throw this out and hope for a Happy New Year....

4-12
7
7-10
1-7
2-4-6
5-7-14

[Rootdog1]

5)5 Butterfly Belle ,12 La Tormenta
6)7 Square Deal
7)1 Blanche Sweet ,11 Le Cirque
8)5 Lighten Up Rule ,7 Sunday Dress
9)4 Society Hostess ,7 Alexandra Rose
10)2 Stormin Jack, 4 Obedience, 8 Power Blend, 10 Jaded Song

[Bigsmc]

Race 5 - 7,12
6 - 3,5,7
7 - 1,3,5
8 - 3,5
9 - 4,6
10 - 11


GL

[declansharbor]

IN SUMMATION - the easiest 3/1 I've ever played with Idiot Proof having peaked 3 back.
looking to parlay some sinnings here.
A dual headed attempt at the late 4, splitting the ticket with my brother Danny 60/40.
My bets:
1,3 // 1,3,7 // 6,7 // 2,10
WP on Sweet Spot (7th)
WP on Alexandra Rose (8th) , keyed in tri with 5,6,8,10.

Our bet:
1,3,4,10,11 // 1,7 // 6,7,10 // 2,5,10

[SCUDSBROTHER]

race 7 exacta all/sweet spot lil to win sweet spot

[declansharbor]

Going alone at the late 3. My brother is sitting on the couch, steaming mad. I don't know why, he's raking my bookie through the coals as of late.
1,3,7 // 6,7,8 // 2,4,5,10
My last bet of the day. Let's go AR in the 9th.
Best of luck everyone!

[philcski]

Man do i suck. Came up with a great single in the 7th in a 11 horse field yet i fail to use a very logical horse in the 6th when i'm already 4 deep. Other than the drop from msw to mcl, there is no stronger play than a horse making their second lifetime start that at least split the field in their debut. Instead i used the pletcher firster against my better wishes. Goes back to Steve's'rant against supertrainers, can't beat em, gotta join em, even when you dont want to.

[declansharbor]

Originally Posted by SCUDSBROTHER

race 7 exacta all/sweet spot lil to win sweet spot

Scuds, I was backing her as well. Was probably my extra padding that prevented her of a good run.

[SCUDSBROTHER]

Originally Posted by declansharbor

Scuds, I was backing her as well. Was probably my extra padding that prevented her of a good run.

Couldn't clear...that's all .No shot if doesn't clear.

[SCUDSBROTHER]

Race 8 Santa Anita

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

PICK 3

Leg 1: 1,2,3,4,5,6,7
Leg 2: 4
Leg 3: 2

PICK 3

Leg 1: 1,7
Leg 2: 4,5,6,7,8,9
Leg 3: 2

[declansharbor]

Some big time late money came in on the 10 (Strong Faith) in the 9th.

[lemoncrush]

Was it just me, or did HRTV switch to a commercial just as they were about to leave the gate in the 9th? Then come back as they just crossed the finish line? What the hell is that about? Did someone fall asleep in the control room?

[SCUDSBROTHER]

Originally Posted by lemoncrush

Was it just me, or did HRTV switch to a commercial just as they were about to leave the gate in the 9th? Then come back as they just crossed the finish line? What the hell is that about? Did someone fall asleep in the control room?

Yeah...Haven't seen full race yet.They came back with Trevor saying "Rose to win."

[geeker2]

Originally Posted by Kasept

<$50 P4 Play:

7: 3-5-10
8: 1-7
9: 2-SCR-6-7-10
10: 5-14

3x2x3x2 = $36


Good luck!
Steve

5 pays $1000+
14 pays $1400 +

Bring it home Steve!


12 or 13 P6 carryover

[declansharbor]

Nice job Scuds. Nice job singling teh 2 in the nightcap. Liked him, but not enough for a single.
Sickening that I left out Leparoux' winner of the first leg of the late 4. Hindsight is 20/20 I suppose. How could I leave him off of my tickets??? A very disheartening win for me today. Ended up having a good day, but the late 4 would have been a righteous addition to the ol bankroll.

[SCUDSBROTHER]

Originally Posted by SCUDSBROTHER

Race 8 Santa Anita

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

PICK 3

Leg 1: 1,2,3,4,5,6,7
Leg 2: 4
Leg 3: 2

PICK 3

Leg 1: 1,7
Leg 2: 4,5,6,7,8,9
Leg 3: 2

Sure woulda been more fun winning this if Stevo and I had same horse.Maybe covered a lil with a 2/14 exacta.

[SCUDSBROTHER]

Originally Posted by declansharbor

Nice job Scuds. Nice job singling teh 2 in the nightcap. Liked him, but not enough for a single.
Sickening that I left out Leparoux' winner of the first leg of the late 4. Hindsight is 20/20 I suppose. How could I leave him off of my tickets??? A very disheartening win for me today. Ended up having a good day, but the late 4 would have been a righteous addition to the ol bankroll.

Yeah,my choice to win the 7th was Siamese,but not enough nad to single it.I think I just liked the dropper in the last more for a single.

[gamblin4ever]

Originally Posted by declansharbor

IN SUMMATION - the easiest 3/1 I've ever played with Idiot Proof having peaked 3 back.
looking to parlay some sinnings here.
A dual headed attempt at the late 4, splitting the ticket with my brother Danny 60/40.
My bets:
1,3 // 1,3,7 // 6,7 // 2,10
WP on Sweet Spot (7th)
WP on Alexandra Rose (8th) , keyed in tri with 5,6,8,10.

Our bet:
1,3,4,10,11 // 1,7 // 6,7,10 // 2,5,10

nice job on tri w/ A. Rose keyed

[SCUDSBROTHER]

Hopefully it won't rain on Thursday.The morning line favorite in the middle leg of the late pick 3 is gunna be handing out money.Brian the Big Gray Rat.Beat KICKIN' CAPER n' Apoplectic.Which means he beat nothing.