On a serious note

justindew · #1 09-30-2007, 07:05 PM

With my self-imposed, six-hour vacation from betting on the horses coming to an end at the strike of midnight, I have come to the conclusion that it is time for me to completely revamp my game.

About a year ago, I shifted my wagering emphasis away from trying to identify the most likely winner and towards finding the best value. Clearly, something got lost in the transition, because this has been the worst year of my wagering career.

The following example illustrates my year perfectly:

-Ten-horse field
-I identify the 9-5 favorite as the most likely winner.
-I bet the 8-1 fourth choice because I think he should be 4-1.
-The favorite wins and my horse runs 3rd, slightly outrunning his odds.
-All of my tickets are losers.

Now, I know logic dictates that if I am correct in assessing a horse's true odds of winning, I will come out ahead in the long run. But I have to admit that I am not good enough to diferentiate between a horse with a 15% chance of winning, and a horse with a 10% chance of winning. Same for a horse with a 33% chance and one with a 20% chance. You get the idea.

I feel like I was a better bettor when I only bet on horses that I felt were THE most likely winner and also offered value. But it seems to me that most pros and authors will tell you that that is not the way to bet.

I would appreciate some feedback on this.

blackthroatedwind · #2 09-30-2007, 07:35 PM

Here's some feedback....

In your post you wrote " I " 15 times and " my " 7 times.

On a positive note, you only said " me " twice and you did say " you " twice as well.

And here I thought this board was all about Byk.

packerbacker7964 · #3 09-30-2007, 07:36 PM

Bet what you want too. I hate when people bet value. How many value horses did you have win during this time? I bet what I think will win. Also you sound like you bet every race for the action. If your pick doesn't look the part skip the damn race. If the horse you like isn't paying the right odds play him in a pick 3 or daily double. It's all about who looks the best every race but who looks good in the 3 or 4 races you'd like to play that day. Remember in black jack you must play alittle each hand to get to the end, in the horses you get to see what your up against before the gates even open. Don't play unless you like something and don't try and pick a winner every race.

ateamstupid · #4 09-30-2007, 07:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Here's some feedback....

In your post you wrote " I " 15 times and " my " 7 times.

On a positive note, you only said " me " twice and you did say " you " twice as well.

And here I thought this board was all about Byk.

Seriously, how many posts about this dude's betting life are we going to get?

VOL JACK · #5 09-30-2007, 07:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Seriously, how many posts about this dude's betting life are we going to get?

Am I missing the point of this board???

blackthroatedwind · #6 09-30-2007, 07:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by VOL JACK

Am I missing the point of this board???

It's Justin Dew's world and we're just lucky he shares it with us.

hi_im_god · #7 09-30-2007, 07:43 PM

a guy walk's into a bar and ask's "does anyone know where i can find an aa meeting?"

there is no punchline.

justindew · #8 09-30-2007, 07:47 PM

Wow.

Not the response I expected, but alright.

blackthroatedwind · #9 09-30-2007, 07:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by justindew

Wow.

Not the response I expected, but alright.

You're improving.....only one " I ".

It was, however, a short post.

justindew · #10 09-30-2007, 07:55 PM

Stay hot, Andy.

blackthroatedwind · #11 09-30-2007, 08:32 PM

To be fair....

I think the whole idea, and you seem to be agreeing with this, that any of us can truly know the actual percent chance of any horse winning is folly. I realize some are better than others at this, and surely this will have a real impact on your results, but since for the most part the board is very accurate, the game becomes more about putting together successful wagers than actually believing you understand succinctly what is " value "....a dubious concept.

I can't answer your " dilemma " except to say that you have to decide if the 9:5 is a better bet than the 4-1 or 8-1. Perhaps the answer is to make multi-race bets and use them both. If you think they have similar chances of winning, or at least their chances are closer than the odds reflect, then over time you will benefit.

Cannon Shell · #12 09-30-2007, 08:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by justindew

I feel like I was a better bettor when I only bet on horses that I felt were THE most likely winner and also offered value. But it seems to me that most pros and authors will tell you that that is not the way to bet.

Though I am neither a pro or author I can say that betting on the best horse who offers value is seemingly a good strategy.

Only 2 I's...

paisjpq · #13 09-30-2007, 08:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Seriously, how many posts about this dude's betting life are we going to get?

a better question is why we need a new thread every half hour about the same days betting?

justindew · #14 09-30-2007, 08:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

To be fair....

I think the whole idea, and you seem to be agreeing with this, that any of us can truly know the actual percent chance of any horse winning is folly. I realize some are better than others at this, and surely this will have a real impact on your results, but since for the most part the board is very accurate, the game becomes more about putting together successful wagers than actually believing you understand succinctly what is " value "....a dubious concept.

I can't answer your " dilemma " except to say that you have to decide if the 9:5 is a better bet than the 4-1 or 8-1. Perhaps the answer is to make multi-race bets and use them both. If you think they have similar chances of winning, or at least their chances are closer than the odds reflect, then over time you will benefit.

Was that so f'ing hard?

blackthroatedwind · #15 09-30-2007, 08:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by justindew

Was that so f'ing hard?

Honestly?

GBBob · #16 09-30-2007, 08:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Seriously, how many posts about this dude's betting life are we going to get?

Joey..I know you don't know me, and no offense, but the above is the pot calling the kettle black if I ever heard it

justindew · #17 09-30-2007, 08:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by paisjpq

a better question is why we need a new thread every half hour about the same days betting?

You're right. That is a better question, if by "every half hour" you mean "once or twice a week", and if by "same day's betting" you mean "totally different races on different days."

Cannon Shell · #18 09-30-2007, 08:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by justindew

You're right. That is a better question, if by "every half hour" you mean "once or twice a week", and if by "same day's betting" you mean "totally different races on different days."

I would like a weekly journal...

justindew · #19 09-30-2007, 08:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

I would like a weekly journal...

Can do!

paisjpq · #20 09-30-2007, 08:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by justindew

You're right. That is a better question, if by "every half hour" you mean "once or twice a week", and if by "same day's betting" you mean "totally different races on different days."

whatever....you present yourself as a pretty self centered person...and then get pissy when people call you on it. Enjoy.