Fishy Pick Six doings at DMR

[ateamstupid]

Yesterday's Pick Six featured a $133.80 winner, an $18 winner, a $6 winner, a $31.60 winner, an $11 winner and a $5.80 winner. A win parlay with those six winners would have paid $910,411, yet the Pick Six pool was just $198,417, AND IT WAS STILL HIT by one ticket.

Not impossible, but according to Brad Free, that lone winning ticket had the first four winners ($133.80, $18, $6, $31.60) all SINGLED. Weird.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by ATEAM

according to Brad Free, that lone winning ticket had the first four winners ($133.80, $18, $6, $31.60) all SINGLED.

Link?

[wiphan]

WOW! That is insane. Does anyone know how the rest of the ticket was structured?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Not sure.

I know the Breeders Cup Fix 6 winning ticket consisted of four straight singles, followed by two ALL-ALL's.

I think it's pretty amusing that someone singled a 65/1 shot in leg one of pick six!...if this is true.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Link?

If you have DRF Plus, you can check it out on Free's Daily Plays for today. I can't post it.

Originally Posted by wiphan

WOW! That is insane. Does anyone know how the rest of the ticket was structured?

Four horses in the seventh and two horses in the eighth. Not exactly like the BC structure, but perhaps that was done by design.

[whodey17]

Ateam - certainly does raise some eyebrows. Maybe the person(s) who singled the horse in Leg A had a connection to the horse so they had to single him. It was just a $16 ticket. Either good handicapping or luck or both.

[Split Rock]

I've played this game for the better half of my life and I've never heard of someone singling a 60-1 shot and having it win, much less, having it be one of four straight singles and then hitting the pick 6.

I would like to know the percentages of that happening. Virtually impossible for me to believe.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by whodey17

Maybe the person(s) who singled the horse in Leg A had a connection to the horse so they had to single him. It was just a $16 ticket.

If that explains the 65/1 shot he singled, he still needed to connect with three more singles in the next three races....a proposition that was offering 426/1 odds on a parlay.

But yeah, just the concept of singling a 65/1 shot in leg 1 of a P6 is virtually unheard of.

[NoLuvForPletch]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

If that explains the 65/1 shot he singled, he still needed to connect with three more singles in the next three races....a proposition that was offering 426/1 odds on a parlay.

But yeah, just the concept of singling a 65/1 shot in leg 1 of a P6 is virtually unheard of.

That horse (the 65/1 shot) was out of the 1st race of the pick six sequence on the huge carryover day at Hollywood. Exhale!!! He didn't run horrible and shouldn't have been 65/1. But, I agree someone got lucky here.

[brianwspencer]

Just two cents to think about (at least from my optimistic perspective) is that we're using the 65-1 number as the standard.

If this were a player who placed their pick-6 wager before the pools opened, say a bet from a bettor who wasn't actively wagering on each race and just handicapped it first and placed it -- the morning line odds and the final odds were:

20-1 -- off at 65-1
5-1 -- off at 8-1
3-1 -- off at 2-1
8-1 -- off at 14-1

While the early singling still looks fishy, it doesn't look quite as crazy when you look at the ML odds of the horses. This player didn't necessarily single a 65-1 shot, he or she may have singled what they thought was a 20-1 shot.

If that matters....

[Unstable]

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

Just two cents to think about (at least from my optimistic perspective) is that we're using the 65-1 number as the standard.

If this were a player who placed their pick-6 wager before the pools opened, say a bet from a bettor who wasn't actively wagering on each race and just handicapped it first and placed it -- the morning line odds and the final odds were:

20-1 -- off at 65-1
5-1 -- off at 8-1
3-1 -- off at 2-1
8-1 -- off at 14-1

While the early singling still looks fishy, it doesn't look quite as crazy when you look at the ML odds of the horses. This player didn't necessarily single a 65-1 shot, he or she may have singled what they thought was a 20-1 shot.

If that matters....

This explanation makes it sound less suspicious. I thought, after the Breeders' Cup Pick 6 fix, that it was near impossible to manipulate the Pick 6 wagers. Anyone know if all venues made the security repairs?

[Unstable]

If the winner did legimately place this bet, he or she is probably kicking him or herself for not playing the parlay bet rather than the Pick 6, seeing as how it paid over eight times as much!

Here's the link to the Brad Free article:
http://www.drf.com/news/article/86864.html

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by Spendabuck85

Here's the link to the Brad Free article:
http://www.drf.com/news/article/86864.html

If it is indeed legit, then good for him. Better to be lucky than good.

[cmorioles]

If this were like the original scam, it means they knew the winners of the first four legs when the tickets were punched. The mistake the idiots the first time made was in the structure. If they had included some losers in the first few legs, nobody would have noticed.

I can't believe someone would try the same thing and make the same stupid mistake.

[robfla]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Better to be lucky than good.

I'd say it was very good handicapping too

[Split Rock]

Originally Posted by robfla

I'd say it was very good handicapping too

Impossible. Period. Either a phone number or dumb luck....or, worse, corruption. NO ONE handicapped the Del Mar card and singled a 65-1 and 11-1. No one is THAT good just by reading the racing form.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by robfla

I'd say it was very good handicapping too

Did you even read the article? He basically admits it was dumb luck.

Byers said he wagered $44 into the pick six Thursday. Byers cashed the ticket Thursday evening at Viejas, and admitted he was lucky. He originally wanted to single race-3 favorite Hit It Skip (No. 8) in the first leg, but when that one scratched, he said he was flustered and went instead with No. 7 - the $133.80 winner.

"I was in a hurry," Byers said. "I go by jockeys and trainers."

[robfla]

dumb luck, good handicapping.. whatever you want to phrase it.. he hit 6 winners with small investment. I say both lucky and good, There were 3 other singles

[Bogey]

Thanks to Volponi. This should be investigated.