Guidelines for handicapping (Pleasanton) Arabians?

[westcoastinvader]

Or mules?

We're in California Fair racing season now!

The first two races on the card today are Arabians....as is the first race tomorrow.

And Russell Baze isn't on any of them, so us Northern Californians don't have a clue who to bet!

[phystech]

My advice would be this - look at the form for the Arabians for less than 30 seconds, take a guzzle of your bourbon and water, then turn the page to the first thoroughbred race and spend the extra time you now have 'capping that one.....

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by phystech

My advice would be this - look at the form for the Arabians for less than 30 seconds, take a guzzle of your bourbon and water, then turn the page to the first thoroughbred race and spend the extra time you now have 'capping that one.....

i second that.

[ALostTexan]

And if you want a real challenge, try handicapping the races from Flagstaff today. Or the Arizona Fair Circuit any time we are running. They actually have conditions for "placed no better than 4th" and stuff like that, simply ways to let the Fair Circuit trainers get in on the $1,000 purses at some point.

Alot of fun to attend, and if you can figure out the game down here plenty of money to make, but then again, you actually have to get these horses figured out...

ALostTexan

[ShadowRoll]

They race Arabians at Delaware often. Trip handicapping seems to work pretty good since it's almost always the same horses running this circuit. Of course, this won't help you with your handicapping today. I also look if any respectable jocks are taking a mount since, at least at DEL, its mostly the low percentage jocks that ride the Arabians. Not saying this makes much of a difference in itself, but the better jocks have savvy agents who are more adept at determining winners, even Arabian winners.

At DEL, they run the Arabian race, or races, last on the card, which is pretty smart. There's a lot of dumb money bet from people chasing losses for the day (and I have to admit that I've fallen into this trap myself on one or two occasions). Also, at some point in the year, they have a day of mostly all Arabian races -- an Arabian championship day, so to speak -- that can be some fun. When I've gone on that day, I spend a lot of time watching the tote board for the very early and very late money.

Yeah, they're not as fast as thorouhgbreds, but they're still beautiful animals. There's an almost full-size brass statue at Delaware of an Arabian steed mounted by what looks like a Bedouin warrior.

[saucon17]

Bet the arabian horse with any Delaware Park running lines. Del Park has the best arabian racing in the US. Just look at how they dominate the winter arabian racing at Los Al when Del Park closes for the winter months.

[ShadowRoll]

Also, I've tried, with mixed success, doing an "early speed" analysis on the Arabians (like the method endorsed by Steve Klein in his book "The Power of Early Speed," which, I guess, is the most recent version of old-style speed handicapping). Although this has often proven no better for me than just eyeballing the past performances to get a feel for the horse's running style, at least you get numbers that you can compare, which helps identify the speed of the speed if there is any. Most of the time, though, I just end up identifying a few comparable front-running underlays. The most helpful things, for me, in Klein's book are his charts identifying which jocks have an "early speed" style of riding. If you have such a jock on an E or E/P type Arabian, you at least know he won't get stiffed by someone trying to take him off the pace.

I forgot to mention trainer statistics, which are maybe the most helpful thing, for me, in handicapping Arabians. Especially if you have a trainer that trains mostly Arabians, and does well.

And, I assume Saucon17 knows of what he speaks, since he runs horsies at DEL.

[phystech]

Originally Posted by ALostTexan

AThey actually have conditions for "placed no better than 4th" and stuff like that, simply ways to let the Fair Circuit trainers get in on the $1,000 purses at some point.

Sounds like the MD $C8k maidens.....

[letswastemoney]

eeny meenie miny moe....catch a tiger by the toe....if he hollers let him go....eeny meenie miny moe