A Lesson Learned

[justindew]

In 2005, I incorrectly labeled Afleet Alex as being in need of a rest after the Kentucky Derby. He then went on to prove me wrong by winning the Preakness and Belmont.

This year, I said the same thing about Curlin, and we saw what he did.

I think I have been jaded (for lack of a better term) by the fragility of modern thoroughbreds during the last few years. By and large, horses of today who try to do what Curlin has done since February fail miserably. But instead of taking a step backward, Curlin made a huge jump forward. So I guess the lesson is that no matter how weak the breed becomes as a whole, really good horses can still overcome some of the obstacles that most horses can't.

I probably should have learned this after Afleet Alex won the Preakness, but sometimes it takes a few examples for me to change my thinking.

[Scurlogue Champ]

Originally Posted by justindew

In 2005, I incorrectly labeled Afleet Alex as being in need of a rest after the Kentucky Derby. He then went on to prove me wrong by winning the Preakness and Belmont.

This year, I said the same thing about Curlin, and we saw what he did.

I think I have been jaded (for lack of a better term) by the fragility of modern thoroughbreds during the last few years. By and large, horses of today who try to do what Curlin has done since February fail miserably. But instead of taking a step backward, Curlin made a huge jump forward. So I guess the lesson is that no matter how weak the breed becomes as a whole, really good horses can still overcome some of the obstacles that most horses can't.

I probably should have learned this after Afleet Alex won the Preakness, but sometimes it takes a few examples for me to change my thinking.

That Afleet Alex was a heck of a horse. Still feel bad about him not winning the Derby. I hated him when he was running too.

Just one of those that I didn't like.

[justindew]

I didn't like him, but I can't explain why.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by justindew

I didn't like him, but I can't explain why.

We all like a lot more losers than winners and will never be right nearly as often as we are wrong. Doesn't matter. Only one thing does.....making money.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

We all like a lot more losers than winners and will never be right nearly as often as we are wrong. Doesn't matter. Only one thing does.....making money.

You sound like a bloodstock agent

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

You sound like a bloodstock agent

I could never be that talented.

[saratoga guy]

I find it disappointing that a lot of fans and pundits have bought into the "party line" of 21st century training that less (racing) is more.

Joe Drape in today's NY Times wrote, "It not only would be prudent to rest Street Sense, but it could be profitable to use the Travers as a springboard to race against older horses in September and, finally, the $5 million Breeders’ Cup Classic in October at Monmouth Park in New Jersey."

Oy!

The horse has only raced four times this year! So it's now "prudent" to put him on the shelf for another 2-3 months?

[outofthebox]

Originally Posted by justindew

In 2005, I incorrectly labeled Afleet Alex as being in need of a rest after the Kentucky Derby. He then went on to prove me wrong by winning the Preakness and Belmont.

This year, I said the same thing about Curlin, and we saw what he did.

I think I have been jaded (for lack of a better term) by the fragility of modern thoroughbreds during the last few years. By and large, horses of today who try to do what Curlin has done since February fail miserably. But instead of taking a step backward, Curlin made a huge jump forward. So I guess the lesson is that no matter how weak the breed becomes as a whole, really good horses can still overcome some of the obstacles that most horses can't.

I probably should have learned this after Afleet Alex won the Preakness, but sometimes it takes a few examples for me to change my thinking.

I can see why you might be"jaded" a bit by your thinking of the fragility of our modern horses. the top trainers continually space the races apart with their top horses. In the case of Curlin though, i wasn't the least concerned with him coming back quickly. He had a very easy time of it at Oaklawn this fall. He did'nt have one head and head battle there. All of his races were easy. The derby itself was not a taxing effort imo. He just seemed to go through the motions, and finished a well beaten third on ability alone. On the other hand lets look at Street Senses spring. He had a fierce battle with Any Given Sat at Tampa, and then another head and head battle at Keeneland. He then freaked at CD (once again) and scored his best number in the process. Like i said before in a previous post, i commend both trainers for having their colts ready to fire huge back in 2 weeks...

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Curlin was unquestionably under-trained going into the Kentucky Derby.

I'm not exactly sure why people thought he needed a rest.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Curlin was unquestionably under-trained going into the Kentucky Derby.

Really?

So you think Steve Assmussen was lying to me when he told me this past Friday that he had really expected him to win the Derby?

[10 pnt move up]

[quote=outofthebox]He had a fierce battle with Any Given Sat at Tampa, and then another head and head battle at Keeneland. QUOTE]

also, I dont know if you were aware of this but Street Sense battled a dead rail at Tampa.

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Really?

So you think Steve Assmussen was lying to me when he told me this past Friday that he had really expected him to win the Derby?

what else would he say? "i thought he might have a chance to run well"

[outofthebox]

[quote=10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by outofthebox

He had a fierce battle with Any Given Sat at Tampa, and then another head and head battle at Keeneland. QUOTE]

also, I dont know if you were aware of this but Street Sense battled a dead rail at Tampa.

I don;t follow Tampa that well, but it doesn't surprise me one bit about the dead rail. From the few races iv'e watched there the riders seem to prefer the outside.

[disappearingdan_akaplaya]

Originally Posted by justindew

In 2005, I incorrectly labeled Afleet Alex as being in need of a rest after the Kentucky Derby. He then went on to prove me wrong by winning the Preakness and Belmont.

This year, I said the same thing about Curlin, and we saw what he did.

I think I have been jaded (for lack of a better term) by the fragility of modern thoroughbreds during the last few years. By and large, horses of today who try to do what Curlin has done since February fail miserably. But instead of taking a step backward, Curlin made a huge jump forward. So I guess the lesson is that no matter how weak the breed becomes as a whole, really good horses can still overcome some of the obstacles that most horses can't.

I probably should have learned this after Afleet Alex won the Preakness, but sometimes it takes a few examples for me to change my thinking.

why didnt you think he was eligible to go forward off the derby considering hes still learning and had a horrible trip? afleet alex bad trip also in louisville

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Really?

So you think Steve Assmussen was lying to me when he told me this past Friday that he had really expected him to win the Derby?

What does that have to do with him being under-trained?

If you watch his workouts....he was pretty much restrained throughout in all of them I saw film of....obviously that is what I mean by being undertrained.

When he got this horse....like what, less than 100 days ago, he got a horse who'd just won his debut, in wire-to-wire fashion, sprinting in fast time.

Basically, through workouts, he's done a job of turning a horse with a milers pedigree and a good deal of natural speed, into a deep closing router...who's been quite flat in the early stages in each of his last two races.

If you watch the Preakness again, he had to be ridden along pretty decently at points through the early stages, and was under a hand ride before the 1/2 mile pole.

He was basically not asked to do any real running in his training....and I certainly don't see how anyone can assume he should be a tired horse based on the four starts he had....he certainly has never acted like a tired horse in any of those career starts...that's for sure.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

what else would he say? "i thought he might have a chance to run well"

He had the "best horse" going in....of course he has a right to think he would win.

In his final workouts leading into the Derby---he was being trained in a manner that would suggest that his connections biggest concerns would be his ability to see out the distance.

After running a sub 12 final 1/8th in his previous start, at 9 furlongs...I'm not sure why.

[justindew]

Originally Posted by disappearingdan_akaplaya

why didnt you think he was eligible to go forward off the derby considering hes still learning and had a horrible trip? afleet alex bad trip also in louisville

Afleet Alex ran so hard in the Arkansas Derby and KY Derby that I just thought he would take a step back. Curlin had done so much so soon that I thought the same thing.

Clearly, I was wrong both times.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

He had the "best horse" going in....of course he has a right to think he would win.

In his final workouts leading into the Derby---he was being trained in a manner that would suggest that his connections biggest concerns would be his ability to see out the distance.

After running a sub 12 final 1/8th in his previous start, at 9 furlongs...I'm not sure why.

I'm a bit confused here, Drugs. Who was your Derby bet? I thought it was AGS.
If you had such a strong opinion about Curlin, why publically go with AGS?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I can't believe you gave KYRIM your log-in.

What are you talking about.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

I'm a bit confused here, Drugs. Who was your Derby bet? I thought it was AGS.
If you had such a strong opinion about Curlin, why publically go with AGS?

AGS was my Derby bet....though I said repeatedly before the race that Curlin was the "best horse."

As you know---there are many times when you bet against the "best horse."