This Crop

justindew · #1 05-20-2007, 09:06 AM

Do any of you think it is fair to start judging this crop of three-year-olds? It seems like three horses have clearly established themselves as the best of the group to this point, but how do they stack up against the best from previous years? And what about every horse not named Street Sense, Hard Spun, or Curlin?

My feeling is that the group as a whole is sub-par, and that could have something to do with why we have seen the same three horses complete the trifecta in the Derby and the Preakness. Furthermore, the relative mediocrity of the entire group could explain why so many historical trends were defied this year. Curlin has been able to do what he has done in such a short period of time. Street Sense was able to win the Derby with two preps, and as the BC Juvenile winner. Hard Spun has run two huge races after running fast fractions early.

Coming up, we have the Jim Dandy, the Haskell, and the Travers. At this point, it looks like Street Sense, Curlin, and Hard Spun are expected to be the main threats to win those races. Maybe Chelokee can add his name to the list, or maybe not.

Finally, just how good are the top three? Don't jump down my throat for saying this, but really good horses don't usually relinquish the lead after they get it. Steve has made good points about the fast internal fractions that Street Sense ran, but I still feel like he gave up, and it was very disappointing to me. Curlin and Hard Spun both ran great races, and I hope we get to see all three face each other again.

ArlJim78 · #2 05-20-2007, 09:12 AM

I think this crop is slowly developing and taking shape.
It sure has looked like a sub-par group early on but I'm starting to get the sense that there might be a decidedly different opinion by year end, or even now.

I will say that they have so far put on a good show and its been a good year for fans.

I do not think Street Sense gave up. If he were run down by a horse that I had a strong feeling was inferior it would be one thing. Curlin has thrown down the gauntlet and is making a claim for the top spot in the group. It may be that he is simply a better horse than Street Sense.

brockguy · #3 05-20-2007, 09:17 AM

I think it'll end up being a good group of colts by the years end.. however, saying that, If I was the owner of Invasor, I wouldnt be quaking in my boots..

justindew · #4 05-20-2007, 09:39 AM

I don't think the owner of Invasor shakes in his boots for anything.

Samarta · #5 05-20-2007, 09:55 AM

Do you think Hard Spun will stay in the classic division?

Every year a horse comes along in the second season....is it Chelokee this year? Who knows....

I think the only one that has potential to really make some noise is Curlin....how much better can he get? Street Sense and Hard Spun will some races, but Curlin is the one that could ultimately challenge in BC this year imo...

justindew · #6 05-20-2007, 10:02 AM

Part of me thinks that if Street Sense truly did quit yesterday, and if Nafzger can prevent that from happening again, Street Sense will prove to be the best of the three.

Are you thinking Hard Spun will go to the turf?

robfla · #7 05-20-2007, 10:11 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by justindew

Are you thinking Hard Spun will go to the turf?

I think he will be best suited for elongated sprints 7f to 1m and should love the turf when given the chance.

Samarta · #8 05-20-2007, 10:11 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by justindew

Part of me thinks that if Street Sense truly did quit yesterday, and if Nafzger can prevent that from happening again, Street Sense will prove to be the best of the three.

Are you thinking Hard Spun will go to the turf?

I don't think turf....what about a sprinter? All you heard Jones talk about was his high cruising speed....well he either needs to tighten up the training reigns and figure out how to bottle that speed or forget about ever being a consistent grade 1 winner...I think Hard Spun accomplished his 2nd and 3rd place finishes in spite of the rides and strategy....

So you like Street Sense more than Curlin?

cmorioles · #9 05-20-2007, 10:12 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by justindew

Part of me thinks that if Street Sense truly did quit yesterday, and if Nafzger can prevent that from happening again, Street Sense will prove to be the best of the three.

Are you thinking Hard Spun will go to the turf?

Hard Spun doesn't rate very well. Therefore, turf would most likely be a horrible option for him.

Samarta · #10 05-20-2007, 10:20 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cmorioles

Hard Spun doesn't rate very well. Therefore, turf would most likely be a horrible option for him.

See, I don't think I agree with that....I think he hasn't rated because they are bought into the fact that he can just cruise along and eat up ground without any stamina impact....he rated in the Lane's End just fine and actually appeared to be doing so yesterday until Pino moved on him...

ArlJim78 · #11 05-20-2007, 10:22 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cmorioles

Hard Spun doesn't rate very well. Therefore, turf would most likely be a horrible option for him.

i completely agree. He is best when he can just run at a constant speed. Changing speeds is not his forte but it is a requirement in turf racing.

There are many places they can go with this guy where he can really make some noise. A very solid horse.

cmorioles · #12 05-20-2007, 10:32 AM

He didn't really rate in the Lane's End any more than he did yesterday. (Isn't it the Spiral now?) In every race he has run, I have him going a lot faster early than late.

justindew · #13 05-20-2007, 10:34 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Samarta

So you like Street Sense more than Curlin?

I think Street Sense should have won yesterday, which would have made him 2 for 2 against Curlin. But Curlin probably has more upside. So I guess I am talking out of both sides of my mouth. I guess I would give a slight edge to Street Sense if I had to choose.

miraja2 · #14 05-20-2007, 11:22 AM

I think Street Sense and Curlin have established themselves as the top two 10f horses in the crop up to this point.
As for Hard Spun, I don't think sprinting would be the way to go with him at all, because while he certainly has some gate speed, I don't think he could compete at a high level in sprints. He would have trouble getting the lead in those races, and he wouldn't be able to take advantage of the fact that he can maintain a strong pace for over a mile.
To me he will be at his best in two-turn races at 8, 8.5, and 9 furlongs on the dirt/poly. There are plenty of G2 and G3 races around the country that fit that description - and he has already proven that he likes the poly - so he could have a very nice campaign this fall.
I see him as a slightly more talented version of Lawyer Ron.

ALostTexan · #15 05-20-2007, 11:23 AM

Well, the Shieks haven't bought out any of the big names from this crop, which tell me alot...

ALostTexan

cmorioles · #16 05-20-2007, 11:27 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ALostTexan

Well, the Shieks haven't bought out any of the big names from this crop, which tell me alot...

ALostTexan

Why, because their other purchases have been so successful?

They have had a few turn out decent, but many more are never heard from again.

justindew · #17 05-20-2007, 01:56 PM

They tried to buy Nobiz Like Shobiz. I'm stubbornly sticking to my prediction that he will end up as the best of this group.

I'm kidding.....

.....sort of.....

....not really.

ALostTexan · #18 05-20-2007, 01:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cmorioles

Why, because their other purchases have been so successful?

They have had a few turn out decent, but many more are never heard from again.

Yeah, but any horse with any potential they seem to purchase. Just making that point. I don't see why they would change their ways now so drastically if they see any potential...

ALostTexan

King Glorious · #19 05-20-2007, 02:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by miraja2

I think Street Sense and Curlin have established themselves as the top two 10f horses in the crop up to this point.
As for Hard Spun, I don't think sprinting would be the way to go with him at all, because while he certainly has some gate speed, I don't think he could compete at a high level in sprints. He would have trouble getting the lead in those races, and he wouldn't be able to take advantage of the fact that he can maintain a strong pace for over a mile.
To me he will be at his best in two-turn races at 8, 8.5, and 9 furlongs on the dirt/poly. There are plenty of G2 and G3 races around the country that fit that description - and he has already proven that he likes the poly - so he could have a very nice campaign this fall.
I see him as a slightly more talented version of Lawyer Ron.

That's the way I see him. He's got great speed for route races but I don't see the type of speed that would get him on the lead or even near it in sprints. A horse can run 22 3/5 and be comfortably in front in a route. Try that same thing in a top notch sprint race and he'll see the ass of all his competitors. I think the Lawyer Ron comparison is a good one. I also think of Lion Heart and Bellamy Road. Races like the Swaps, the WV Derby, the Jim Dandy, the Penn Derby.....those have Hard Spun's name written all over them......provided Curlin or Street Sense is not there.

Bobby Fischer · #20 05-20-2007, 03:38 PM

This is a slow bunch...
A mediocre group...
NOT!

Curlin is the living definition of tactical-speed. His stride is grace in motion and he has gotten noticeably physically stronger since his brilliant 7 furlong maiden win earlier this year.
from here on out - continue the program, must gradually improve, can't let the fast rise to the top break his long term momentum. work on establishing position early, work on the turns.

Street Sense has the rare combination of talent and late running style. Always responds and makes his run. His stamina and style separate him from the Jinxed Juveniles.
from here on out - needs to be placed in the right races (pace up front, is lone closer), for winning effort must make last run against top competition, has to win races deep in the lane, not at the top

Hard Spun is a big strong classic distance runner with a true high-cruising speed style. Scary that he has potential to improve and actually made a stalk and pounce move in the Preakness. (albeit very premature).
from here on out - decide a course of action. know your horse. Either this is a real talent with stamina and speed, that simply needs a jockey that can control the animal and time a race properly when he doesn't break on top, or if the horse is uncontrollable, carefully spot him down in class, throw on those blinkers and overpower cheaper horses at 8.5 furlongs.