Finally the Aqueduct Finale

[Holland Hacker]

Has any one looked at Aqueduct for today? I'm really interested to know your thoughts on Karakorum Starlet's chances in the 3rd.

I think she has a good shot assuming Luzzi doesn't gun her to the lead.

Thanks,
HH

[pmacdaddy]

Decided to pass on the 3rd. Main concern there for me was abundence of speed. With that said, Starlett should be sitting on good effort 3rd off. Good luck.

The horse I keep looking at for a price is To the Republic in the 6th (12-1). Last turf start before winter was a nice one (on yeilding turf). Lifetime best fig is over sod as well. Droped down in class for the winter, but kept active and could be ready. Was AE in yesterday's nightap grass allowance and scratched when they came off. If Fairway Drive needs one off the bench, think this guy could get involved a price. I will box with #7 and include him to kick off pick4. Tough to love, but maybe...

Any thoughts on Funny Cide today? Currently not using him in pk4.

Good Luck Today! Then on to Belmont...

[Hickory Hill Hoff]

With the blinkers added today and the much softer field...Funny Cide has got a good shot today and he may not be the favorite!
The 1a & 3 may be "over the top" off their last efforts and the 4 is definitely the horse to beat.
I see it 5-4-1 in the King's Point.

[philcski]

Early P4 thoughts:

R2: Mastermind lays over this field and has enough early speed to gain the lead. Speed did very well yesterday and a repeat of his last race at this trip would win easily.

R3: Several in with a chance here; don't discount the chances of the #1 Expiration Day on the short rest, who with a repeat of her 3/11 race closing against the bias could figure at a nice price.

R4: Only one at a price that could figure, Keep a Knockin from Clement, who rarely cranks them up first out. Two steady works at Payson are a good sign. The favorites look solid, however.

R5: Flyaway Princess would be very tough if this race was in August '06, but I question her readiness off the long layoff. Only 4 works in '07, none of which are even remotely good. I like the 6, Nordberg. A repeat of her stake effort 2 back should be enough. The 1 showed good closing ability into a moderate pace last out and is on the improve; if the track is fair today she could surprise.

P4:
8/1,2,3,4,5,6/1,3,4,8/1,2,6
$72 ticket for a buck. Playing the 8/1,3,4/1,3/1,6 combo twice.

[hurricanefrank]

Race 4: MSW fillies 3yo&up 1 1/16 TURF
#8 Judith Basin (7-2) makes 2d start of '07 for Bill Mott; enters off useful conditioner, finishing good 2d to repeat winner Roshani (Pletcher); 4yo $650K Danzig filly is ready to hit winner's circle under Edgar Prado.
#3 Bit of Whimsy (5-2) ran huge in debut at GP at 11-1, leading in stretch before yielding late; trainer Tagg on fire (10-5-0-1); 3yo is one to beat under Cornelio Velasquez who chose her over top pick.
#4 Brantley (3-1) also makes 2d start as 4yo; Albertrani trainee finished length behind choice in '07 debut; should be in mix late under strong turf rider Eibar Coa.
#1 Keep a Knockin (10-1) is 3yo Live Oak homebred who should move forward today off troubled 5 wide trip in debut at GP; conditioner Clement hits at 22% with those making 2d starts off bench.

Race 6: $35K open clm 3yo&up 1 mile TURF
#7 Taken Not Given (9-5) appears poised to crush this rather lackluster field making 2d start of '07 for Gary Contessa; '06 turf Beyers tower over this bunch; got needed fitter on 4/17 in off-the-turfer; rolls today.
#8 Fairway Drive (3-1) makes first start of '07 but looks like main danger in first start in a claimer given '06 turf form and presence of Coa in saddle.
#2B Gift of Valor (7-2) is stronger part of Joe Acquilino entry; broke mdn in AQU slop on 4/12; meets winners 1st time but showed decent turf form this spring at the Fair Grounds; could nibble for a piece.

Good luck all.

[kenny p]

Race 9 All in C.J. should do it today.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by philcski

Early P4 thoughts:

R2: Mastermind lays over this field and has enough early speed to gain the lead. Speed did very well yesterday and a repeat of his last race at this trip would win easily.

R3: Several in with a chance here; don't discount the chances of the #1 Expiration Day on the short rest, who with a repeat of her 3/11 race closing against the bias could figure at a nice price.

R4: Only one at a price that could figure, Keep a Knockin from Clement, who rarely cranks them up first out. Two steady works at Payson are a good sign. The favorites look solid, however.

R5: Flyaway Princess would be very tough if this race was in August '06, but I question her readiness off the long layoff. Only 4 works in '07, none of which are even remotely good. I like the 6, Nordberg. A repeat of her stake effort 2 back should be enough. The 1 showed good closing ability into a moderate pace last out and is on the improve; if the track is fair today she could surprise.

P4:
8/1,2,3,4,5,6/1,3,4,8/1,2,6
$72 ticket for a buck. Playing the 8/1,3,4/1,3/1,6 combo twice.

Goddamn hangers. Don't know how the 1 or 6 couldn't get by there. UGHHHH I'm so sick of Aqueduct!!

[pmacdaddy]

Here is my late pk4 try. Last for the Big A.

3,7/1,4,5/1,3,5,6,7/4,6

[philcski]

P4 final:

2,8/1/1,3,4,5,6/1,4,8,9

$40 buckaroos. Probably pay $30.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Late pic 4

2,3,8
3
1,2,3,4,5
1,2,5,6

$60 for a buck

Doubles in the 6th

2,3,8/ 3

In the 7th I love Carminooch, betting him to win

Also betting Pa Pa Da to win in the 8th, he loves the Big A turf

I'm going to hammer the 1-3 exacta box. Unless FC gets 3 years younger today it's the only way I can see it.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

I must have smoking something to think I'd get a decent price on Carminooch. I think the box is pretty cold.

It's paying $18/$21, which I think is pretty square in a 5 horse field (with a no hope #2 in there, who's probably just prepping for a turf race and got hustled in to fill the race)

[philcski]

Accountforthegold has turned into a really nice horse. That's 5 straight good efforts...

[philcski]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Well that was fun.

Thought JV took Carminooch too far off the pace in the compact field, left himself too much to do. Wasn't going to get the winner but he should have been 2nd.

[ateamstupid]

Funny Cide gets hung wide around both turns. Probably wasn't beating Accountforthegold anyway, but that didn't help.

[fpsoxfan]

I hope they get all the people and horses out of there..so nobody gets hurt...and detonate two to three large bombs on the place. I hate the track. AqueCHALK could go away and i'd never miss it.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Boy Contessa is going really well right now. Jose Espinoza sucks, just like everything I have bet for the last week.

About the only people that don't want to leave Aqueduct are Alan Garcia, Contessa, and Winning Move.

That knocked me out of my $24 P6 shot in the dark (had the 3,4,6) but at least the P4 prices will be ok.

[philcski]

Incidentally, I played golf with Greg Matties yesterday, trainer of the 1 in the 9th, says the horse has speed but a lot of problems, so if speed isn't carrying throw him out. Should get an uncontested lead, let's see if he can carry it...

[pmacdaddy]

Originally Posted by pmacdaddy

Here is my late pk4 try. Last for the Big A.

3,7/1,4,5/1,3,5,6,7/4,6

I should be horse whipped for leaving Fairway Drive out in the 1st leg. Tried to get cute like a dummy and got burned. Paid pretty good too...

At least I caught the 6 to win in last.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

I am an idiot, seriously. Instead of singling Carminooch, I could have included the only other horse who could have won that race for another $60 and the pic 4 paid $1284.

Matties horse ran well, and I should have punched the exacta there but I was too busy sulking.

I should have seen Coa hopping on in the last. A shame.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

I'm just glad they're off to Belmont. Good call on Matties horse though. His horses have a knack for running well at nice odds.

Me too. I hate Aqueduct!!!