Aqu 2/22

[Mac88]

Tough card at Big A today. Just a couple thoughts and would love some input

Ist Race- tough 40k claimer. Gonzo Bonzo Beans in good spot on rail but has failed with good stups before. Looking at Cash Rich as you can throw out route try in last but some decent looking sprint form previous including a distant third to Hard Spun.

Aqu 4th- Maiden 16k claimers. I like the 3 Yourturntoyield. Might get loose and without knowing at this point what it is like today, track inside speed biased on Monday

Aqu 6th- NYSB maidens. Looking at a bit of a price hopefully with the 4 Bayou Timber. Wide trip against grain 2/1. Good work since. Might get overlooked in wagering a bit

Aqu 8th- Livermore Valley is G1 placed but coming off layoff. Taking a shot with the J Jerkens Ring True who has run well over Inner in past and might sit good pressing trip on cheap speed Secret Brook and get first run on LV

Just my thoughts

[Kasept]

Speaking of AQU, found this analysis piece of the rail bias situation there at a handicapping site and thought it was worth "appropriating".. Interesting thoughts on way the track is playing and how to play it, etc...


I pay very close attention the NY racing, and have done so particularly this year, and for the most part the inner dirt has been as rail biased as a surface could possibly be. As was previously pointed out, it isn't necessarily speed, but during the bias a rail trip was a virtual necessity for success. This has been especially prevalent in two turn races. Contrary to a widely held belief, this has rarely been the case over past inner track meets, and while ground loss obviously more acutely affects performances due to the tighter track, for the most part the surface has been even.

For a horseplayer this is not really as simple as it might seem on the surface of things. Trying to determine who will get the lead, while relatively simple in some races, is confusing in others. And, as the jockeys get more aware of the situation (think about how severe it must be for even them to know) the races get run in much more haphazard fashions. The most startling example of this was the seventh race on January 7th. However, the real profit center occurs when the bias leaves (as it did January 11th before resurfacing late last week). At that time, betting on horses who suffered through impossible journeys, while avoiding those with false performaces due to the bias, produced fairly easy and substantial windfalls for anyone who paid careful attention. Thus, I suppose if nothing is done about the current surface, we can look forward to more betting opportunities at least somewhere down the road.

To me it is clearly a track superintendant issue, and the relatively new one at NYRA certainly should be under scrutiny, as during his relatively new tenure we have seen a number of surface problems that simply never existed before. Last Fall, upon returning to Belmont from Saratoga, the turf course couldn't be used for a number of days. The Aqueduct turf course has also suffered similar problems. Perhaps these problems arose from neglect by previous maintenance crews but it does seem at least curious that they came up under this person's supposed watch. The Aqueduct main track, long considered on of the best in the business, suffered serious problems this fall, so much so that one week in the beginning of November the races were switched to the inner so that repairs could be made. And now we have this ridiculous, and extended, inner bias.

I find it curious that more horsemen aren't complaining.. maybe they are.. as these races are being run in such an unfair manner that many horses simply have no chance before they leave the gate. On the other hand, there are always beneficiaries of these situations as well, so perhaps there is some evening out factor. Regardless of how one looks at it, there are upsides and downsides, but this is one bias that supercedes all others.

[Mac88]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Speaking of AQU, found this analysis pieceof the rail bias situation there at 'capping site and thought it was worth "appropriating".. Interesting thoughts on way the track is playing and how to play it, etc...


I pay very close attention the NY racing, and have done so particularly this year, and for the most part the inner dirt has been as rail biased as a surface could possibly be. As was previously pointed out, it isn't necessarily speed, but during the bias a rail trip was a virtual necessity for success. This has been especially prevalent in two turn races. Contrary to a widely held belief, this has rarely been the case over past inner track meets, and while ground loss obviously more acutely affects performances due to the tighter track, for the most part the surface has been even.

For a horseplayer this is not really as simple as it might seem on the surface of things. Trying to determine who will get the lead, while relatively simple in some races, is confusing in others. And, as the jockeys get more aware of the situation (think about how severe it must be for even them to know) the races get run in much more haphazard fashions. The most startling example of this was the seventh race on January 7th. However, the real profit center occurs when the bias leaves (as it did January 11th before resurfacing late last week). At that time, betting on horses who suffered through impossible journeys, while avoiding those with false performaces due to the bias, produced fairly easy and substantial windfalls for anyone who paid careful attention. Thus, I suppose if nothing is done about the current surface, we can look forward to more betting opportunities at least somewhere down the road.

To me it is clearly a track superintendant issue, and the relatively new one at NYRA certainly should be under scrutiny, as during his relatively new tenure we have seen a number of surface problems that simply never existed before. Last Fall, upon returning to Belmont from Saratoga, the turf course couldn't be used for a number of days. The Aqueduct turf course has also suffered similar problems. Perhaps these problems arose from neglect by previous maintenance crews but it does seem at least curious that they came up under this person's supposed watch. The Aqueduct main track, long considered on of the best in the business, suffered serious problems this fall, so much so that one week in the beginning of November the races were switched to the inner so that repairs could be made. And now we have this ridiculous, and extended, inner bias.

I find it curious that more horsemen aren't complaining.. maybe they are.. as these races are being run in such an unfair manner that many horses simply have no chance before they leave the gate. On the other hand, there are always beneficiaries of these situations as well, so perhaps there is some evening out factor. Regardless of how one looks at it, there are upsides and downsides, but this is one bias that supercedes all others.

Steve

Excellent post. It is disheartening at times to bet Big A due to inside bias that seems to exist nearly everyday. Mondays seventh for example sees Coa stay on rail with Sunset Cocktail and win by open lengths. Absolutely not sold he was best horse in race let alone best by open lengths. Salt Water Reign gets outside post and Luzzi tries to make move three wide into turn and looks like he hits quicksand when they straighten out. Now SWR is no world class horse, but one would think he should have put in better run than that. Just one recent example

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by cmfhb411

Before seeing scratches, I have to bet Race 3-# 5 Tawfeer.
I'd much rather see activity since his last start ( in my Brisnet PPs ), But I believe a repeat of his last, wins this one.

I think we'll know how he'll finish, before the field hits the turn ( 1/2 mile pole ).

Good luck to all.

411,

Tawfer SCRATCHED!

[Kasept]

Quick and dirty look at AQU today:


4th: MDN CLM, 6f

1. #7 Na'lu 4-1
2. #8 Lets Get Going 7-5 3rd
A. #6 Highland Cat 5-1 WON
B. #4 Connairsconnection 30-1 4th


5th: NYB-MDN CLM, 6f

1. #4 Native Hall 1-1 2nd
2. #9 Straight Blush 12-1
A. #5 Lake Butler 7-2
B. #7 Icy Heart 30-1 3rd


6th: NYB-MSW, 1m-70y

1. #8 Chernobyl's Hero 4-1 2nd
2. #4 Bayou Timber 5-1 3rd
A. #1 Raven H 3-1 WON
B. #5 Fiddlers Warrior 7-2 4th

$1 Exacta 1-8 $13.90
$1 Trifecta 1-8-4 $40.75
$1 Quad/Superfecta 1-8-4-5 $123.25


7th: NYB-ALW/N1X, 1m

1. #1 (poe) Junkanoo Party 3-1 2nd
2. #7 Michele the Great 5-2 WON
A. #6 Missed the Tower 8-1
B. #4 Absolute Heaven 6-1


8th: The Stormy Kiss, 6f

1. #7 Hallie's Girl 5-1
2. #1 Livermore Valley 7-5
A. #5 Notimetoquit 8-1
B. #4 Ring True 7-2


9th: NYB-MSW, 1m-70y

1. #7 Hummerus Alex 5-1
2. #9 Musketeer 6-1
A. #3 False I.D. 3-1
B. #4 Who's Yo Grandaddy 4-1

LONGSHOT/EXOTICS ADD: #8 Royal Toga 30-1


<$50 P4 Play:

6: 1-4-5-8
7: 1-7
8: 1-7
9: 3-7-9

4x2x2x3 = $48


Good luck!
Steve

[Rudeboyelvis]

Originally Posted by jjf1031

Mondays seventh for example sees Coa stay on rail with Sunset Cocktail and win by open lengths. Absolutely not sold he was best horse in race let alone best by open lengths. Salt Water Reign gets outside post and Luzzi tries to make move three wide into turn and looks like he hits quicksand when they straighten out. Now SWR is no world class horse, but one would think he should have put in better run than that. Just one recent example

I'm familiar with the connections of SWR and can say most agree wholeheartedly with your analysis (except the part about her not being world class ).

I can say for myself that 4 starts for us over the inner, and drawing an outside post each time, is enough. If you draw outside of the 4 post, especially going two turns, you can't win coming from off the pace. It's futile to even try. You either use too much horse getting to the rail or you go wide in the stretch turn and get bogged down in the surface.

Perhaps it's utter and complete ignorance on my part, but for the life of me I can't figure out what in the hell is so difficult to correct about this? Why can't they close the track to training on Monday and Tuesday and work on it - 24 hours a day if necessary - starting Sunday evening until Wednesday morning? Makes you wonder if the Main will be ready in time.

[Mac88]

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

I'm familiar with the connections of SWR and can say most agree wholeheartedly with your analysis (except the part about her not being world class ).

I can say for myself that 4 starts for us over the inner, and drawing an outside post each time, is enough. If you draw outside of the 4 post, especially going two turns, you can't win coming from off the pace. It's futile to even try. You either use too much horse getting to the rail or you go wide in the stretch turn and get bogged down in the surface.

Perhaps it's utter and complete ignorance on my part, but for the life of me I can't figure out what in the hell is so difficult to correct about this? Why can't they close the track to training on Monday and Tuesday and work on it - 24 hours a day if necessary - starting Sunday evening until Wednesday morning? Makes you wonder if the Main will be ready in time.

No offense at all about world class comment. Loved her in that spot and was disappointed she was a bias victim as had pik 4's based on her as a single.

[Mac88]

first three run around the track gate to wire. Here we go again possibly? likely?

[estreetposse]

Early PK4

2358
234
78
14 = $48


gl all

-bt-