3/20: Fair Grounds ~ Derby Day (6th-14th)

[Kasept]

FAIR GROUNDS


POST-SCRATCHES


5th: MSW, 3yo, 6f (P3, DD)

Has the look of a very productive group..

Most Likely: #2 Tulane Tryst 3-1: Exits serious try; Wins with repeat of it.. WON ($4.80)
Best Value: #8 Mr Sippi 6-1: 1st time as 3yo after useful fall tries.. 2nd
Next Best: #6 Wild for Wycliff 7-2 5th
Exotics Use: #7 Find New Roads 12-1 9th


6th: MSW, 3yo, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD)

Those with experience appear modest, opening the door for well bred (well meant?) firsters from Sharp (Win Worthy) & Cox (Snow House). McGee's Amerman-home bred Temple City Blvd ~ pedigreed top/bottom for lawn ~ was rained off for debut and is 20-1. Casse exasperated by Commited, but has talent and is liable to connect dots at some point..

Most Likely: #6 Win Worthy 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #4 Snow House 4-1 4th
Best Value: #7 Temple City Blvd 20-1 6th
Exotics Use: #9 Committed 6-1 7th


7th: MSW, 3yo-F, 6f (P3, DD)

Grant Forster turns back Bold Confection, Jose Ortiz signs on and eschews Lasix after tying up post race of her first 2 races. Not losing..

Best Value: #8 BOLD CONFECTION 6-1 8th
Next Best: #5 Speightharmony 9-2 9th
Exotics Use: #3 Rookery 3-1 WON ($7.80)
Super Add: #7 Firingtothefront 8-1 7th


8th: Costa Rising-LA, 3+, 5.5f-T (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 No Parole 8-5 4th
Next Best: #6 Monte Man 5-1 3rd
Best Value: #10 Classy John 12-1 WON ($61.00)
Exotics Use: #14 Bertie's Galaxy SCR


9th: Crescent City Derby-LA, 3yo, 8.5f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Who Took the Money 5-2 WON ($3.00)
Next Best: #7 Unanimously 5-1 3rd
Best Value: #9 Wrongwayhighway 10-1 5th
Exotics Use: #1 Highland Creek 6-1 2nd


P4 Grid:

6: 4-6-7 (A), 5-8-9 (B), - (C)
7: 8 (A), - (B), 3-5-7 (C)
8: 2-6-10 (A), - (B), - (C)
9: 2-7 (A), - (B), 1-6 (C)

Simple (A+B): 6x1x3x2 = $36 ($18 for .50)
All A's: 3x1x3x2 = 18 x .50 = $9
Backups: $27 (3-5-7) + $9 (1-6)


10th: Tom Benson, F&M-4+, 8.5f-T (P5, P3, DD)

Thoroughly impossible with slow-paced Al Stall Memorial the basis for the group with several season-starters looking to interlope. No combination appears outlandish for the pay slots..

Best Value: #5 Winter Sunset 20-1 6th
Next Best: #6 Temple City Terror 8-1 7th
Exotics Use: #13 Summer in Saratoga 10-1 WON ($20.20)
Super Add: #10 Winning Envelope 8-1 3rd


11th: New Orleans Classic (G2), 4+, 9f (P4, P3, DD)

Owendale feels very likely, but given the lack of pace signed on, Chess Chief looks like a sneaky possibility..

Most Likely: #2 Owendale 2-1 2nd
Best Value: #6 Chess Chief 6-1 WON ($12.00)
Next Best: #8 Sonneman 9-2 5th
Exotics Use: #5 Enforceable 8-1 3rd


12th: Muniz Memorial (G2), 4+, 9f-T (P3, DD)

As discussed Friday, Colonel Liam just gets better and better. Far from a slam dunk though with many solid hard hitters involved..

Most Likely: #5 Colonel Liam 3-1 WON ($3.40)
Next Best: #6 Logical Myth 6-1 3rd
Best Value: #10 Peace Achieved 20-1 7th
Exotics Use: #7 Two Emmys 20-1 2nd


13th: Fair Grounds Oaks (G2), 3yo-F, 8.5f (DD)

Top 3 should cover it, but Li'l Tootsie can take them a long way if left alone..

Best Value: #5 Obligatory 5-1 4th
Next Best: #6 Clairiere 2-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #8 Travel Column 5-2 WON ($6.20)
Super Add: #4 Li'l Tootsie 4-1 5th


14th: Louisiana Derby (G2), 3yo, 9.5f

Excellent local group that exchanged blows in Lecomte & Risen Star is enhanced by invasion of Hot Rod Charlie and presence of breakthrough type Run Classic..

Most Likely: #6 Mandaloun 8-5 6th
Next Best: #5 Hot Rod Charlie 3-1 WON ($7.80)
Best Value: #3 Run Classic 12-1 8th
Exotics Use: #7 Midnight Bourbon 5-1 2nd


P5 Grid:

10: 5-6-10-13 (A), 3-4-7-12 (B), - (C)
11: 2 (A), - (B), 6 (C)
12: 5-6 (A), - (B), - (C)
13: 5-6-8 (A), - (B), 4 (C)
14: 5-6 (A), 3 (B), 4-7 (C)

Simple (A+B): 8x1x2x3x3 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 4x1x2x3x2 = 48 x .50 = $24
Backups: $24 (6) + $8 (4) + $24 (4-7)

$0.50 Pick-5 (13/6/1,4,5/2,8/5) Paid $1,133.05


P4 Grid:

11: 2 (A), - (B), 6 (C)
12: 5-6 (A), - (B), 7-9-10-12 (C)
13: 5-6-8 (A), 4 (B), - (C)
14: 3-5-6 (A), 4-7 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 1x2x4x5 = $60 ($30 for .50)
All A's: 1x2x3x3 = $18 ($9 for .50)
Backups: $9 (6) + $24 (7-10)

$0.50 Pick-4 (6/1,4,5/2,8/5) Paid $98.85


Good luck!
Steve