5/2: Oaklawn ~ Arkansas Derby Day (4th-14th)

[Kasept]

OAKLAWN PARK


POST-SCRATCHES


NOTE: Speed was pronounced Friday to the point of carrying front end horses; Use races 1-5 (4 sprints, 1 route) to gauge conditions before serious multi-race wagering begins with middle P4 (R6-9)..


4th: MSW, 3+, 6f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #7 Major Attraction 7-2 3rd
Next Best: #11 Bank 3-1 WON ($5.00)
Best Value: #13 Illuminati 20-1 5th ~ (ALT: #5 Quality Warrior 15-1 2nd)
Exotics Use: #9 Uncle Addouma 4-1 4th


5th: Opt CLM/C, 4+. 8.5f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #9 Bankit 9-2 2nd
Next Best: #11 Endorsed 7-2 WON ($6.80)
Best Value: #8 Two Thirty Five 8-1 9th
Exotics Use: #12 Pirates Punch 3-1 3rd


6th: MSW, 3yo, 9f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Friar's Road 7-2 2nd
Best Value: #7 Ring of Fire 10-1 11th
Next Best: #5 Hunt the Front 4-1 WON ($7.00)
Exotics Use: #6 What a Country 10-1 6th


7th: OC/N1X, 3yo-F, 8.5f (P3, DD)

Highly anticipated 2nd start of Gamine, but note that Ain't No Elmers draws in and Speech is solid. Was using Black Kat Taps yesterday but she SCR'd for this spot. Not a win candidate, but value underneath circling back to a good effort while reunited with BJ Hernandez..

Most Likely: #8 Gamine 7-5 WON ($3.20)
Next Best: #13 Ain't No Elmers 5-2 5th
Best Value: #3 Black Kat Taps 20-1 9th
Exotics Use: #10 Speech 2-1 2nd


8th: ALW/N$Y, 3+, 8.5f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Fra Mauro 9-2 3rd
Next Best: #1 Benintendi 8-1 7th
Best Value: #7 Don Vito Corleone 12-1 10th
Exotics Use: #10 Moretti 5-2 WON ($7.40)


9th: OC/N$Y, 4+, 8.5f (P3, DD)

Best Value: #7 Rotation 9-2 7th
Next Best: #1 Popular Kid 4-1 10th
Exotics Use: #3 Fearless 3-1 2nd
Super Add: #2 Always 8-1 6th


P4 Grid:

6: 4-7 (A), 5-6 (B), - (C)
7: 8-13 (A), - (B), 10 (C)
8: 1-5-7 (A), 8-10 (B), - (C)
9: 1-3-7 (A), - (B), 2-8 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x2x5x3 = 120 x .50 = $60
All A's: 2x2x3x3 = 36 x .50 = $18


10th: OC/N$Y, 3yo, 8.5f (P5, P3, DD)

Tricky read about pace with Ginobili stretching out and certainly first on to the backstretch with other alleged pace players having 'route' speed. Track played kindly to front end types Friday..

Most Likely: #11 Rushie 5-2 WON ($8.00)
Best Value: #10 Prodigous Bay 5-1 4th
Next Best: #2 Ginobili 7-2 -
Exotics Use: #12 Background 15-1 3rd


11th: Arkansas Derby (G1), 3yo, 9f (P4, P3, DD)

Charlatan was a heavy favorite even prospect for pace pressure came out. Expect Anneau d'Or runs better today reunited with JJ Hernandez.

Most Likely: #1 Charlatan 1-1 WON ($2.80)
Best Value: #8 Anneau d'Or 6-1 5th
Next Best: #4 Gouverneur Morris 9-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #9 Winning Impression 15-1 4th


12th: Oaklawn H. (G2), 4+, 9f (P3, DD)

With the speeds inside, Improbable SCR'D stands to sit a comfortable 3rd-4th on to the backstretch. Return race was terrific and while he won't be 8-1, will still be a square enough number given the deep cast. Fascinating lineup with at least half eligible for laurels..

Best Value: #2 Trophy Chaser 12-1 13th
Next Best: #9 Tacitus 9-2 4th
Exotics Use: #7 Combatant 4-1 10th
Super Add: #4 Mr Freeze 6-1 3rd


13th: Arkansas Derby (G1), 3yo, 9f (DD)

Most Likely: #5 Nadal 5-2 WON ($3.80)
Next Best: #4 King Guillermo 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #3 Storm the Court 6-1 5th
Exotics Use: #10 Farmington Road 12-1 4th


14th: 'Trail's End' S/ALW, 3+, 14f

Most Likely: #5 Carlos Sixes 4-1 7th
Best Value: #9 Take Charge d'Oro 10-1 WON ($39.60)
Next Best: #7 Wickett's Way 8-1 12th
Exotics Use: #14 River Echo 8-1 2nd


P5 Grid:

10: 2-10-11 (A), 4-7-12 (B), - (C)
11: 1 (A), - (B), 4-8 (C)
12: 2-4-6-7-9 (A), - (B), - (C)
13: 4-5 (A), - (B), 3-10 (C)
14: 5 (A), 9 (B), 1-7-14 (C)

Simple (A+B): 6x1x5x2x2 = 120 x .50 = $60
All A's: 3x1x5x2x1 = 30 x .50 = $15


P4 Grid:

11: 1 (A), 4-8 (B), - (C)
12: 2-4-6-7-9 (A), - (B), - (C)
13: 4-5 (A), - (B), 3-10 (C)
14: 1-5-7-9-14 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x5x2x5 = 150 x .50 = $75
All A's: 1x5x2x5 = 50 x .50 = $25


Good luck!
Steve