Opening mile of the Kentucky Derby

[Calzone Lord]

I had been waiting for Thoro-Graph to post its Derby figures before I'd post this...but, I'm fairly certain Creative Cause was 4 or more paths wider than Bodemeister (whom he trailed by 3.75 lengths after a mile) -- so I'm going to go ahead and call Creative Cause on the right side for this year.

The name on the left is the leader after a mile in the Derby.

The name on the right is the horse who ran the fastest race after a mile with Sheet style ground loss included.

2012: Bodemeister - Creative Cause

2011: Sheckleford - Nehro

2010: Noble's Promise - Discreetly Mine

2009: Join In The Dance - Pioneerof The Nile

2008: Big Brown - Big Brown

2007: Hard Spun - Any Given Saturday

2006: Barbaro - Barbaro

2005: High Fly - Bellamy Road

2004: Lion Heart - Smarty Jones

2003: Peace Rules - Empire Maker

2002: War Emblem - Came Home

2001: Congaree - Point Given

2000: Captain Steve - Captain Steve

1999: Cat Thief - Charismatic

1998: Real Quiet - tie Real Quiet (1w, 4w) and Indian Charlie (3w, 3w) RQ +1 length after mile.

1997: Free House - Silver Charm

1996: Unbridled's Song - Unbridled's Song

1995: Serena's Song - tie Thunder Gulch (3w, 4w) and Afternoon Deelites (4w, 5w) Thunder Gulch 2 lengths in front after a mile.

1994: Go For Gin - Go For Gin

1993: Personal Hope - (Diazo, Union City) -- inconclusive based on very close call of ground loss on turns.

1992: Dance Floor - (Dance Floor, Arazi) -- inconclusive based on very close call of ground loss on turns

1991: Sea Cadet - (Hansel, Corporate Report, Mane Minister) -- inconclusive based on very close call of ground loss on turns

1990: Summer Squall - Summer Squall

1989: Houston - Sunday Silence

1988: Winning Colors - Winning Colors

1987: Bet Twice - Bet Twice

1986: Broad Brush - Badger Land

1985: Spend A Buck - Spend A Buck


The next-out record of horses on the left in dirt races: 8-for-27 (29.6% wins) Avg win mutual: $7.80

The next-out record of horses on the right in dirt races: 15-for-31 (48.4% wins) Avg win mutual: $7.00

[declansharbor]

You're crazy bro. And im pretty sure i speak for the board when saying 'thank you' for being such.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by declansharbor

You're crazy bro. And im pretty sure i speak for the board when saying 'thank you' for being such.

A lot of good stats and stuff like this I have on file for big races.

I wish I was a good enough writer to be able to work them into my columns...something like that is a little too cerebral for a Preakness newspaper column.

Horses who raced wide and have faded in the stretch in Derby have had a great subsquent record...but, it will be interesting to see how this holds up in the next few years. After Borel's latest win in 2010...maybe the wides aren't having it tough anymore.

[declansharbor]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

A lot of good stats and stuff like this I have on file for big races.

I wish I was a good enough writer to be able to work them into my columns...something like that is a little too cerebral for a Preakness newspaper column.

Horses who raced wide and have faded in the stretch in Derby have had a great subsquent record...but, it will be interesting to see how this holds up in the next few years. After Borel's latest win in 2010...maybe the wides aren't having it tough anymore.

A buddy of mine (who has recently taken up the horses) and i were having a convo about the Preakness yesterday. I pulled up your thread on closing up ground in the Derby and his eyeballs shot out of his skull. His first two questions were, and i quote, "Who's Calzone Lord? and How the hell does he compile this data?"

I told him there's plenty of more info like that to be had here. Needless to say, you've gathered yourself another fan. He texted me tonight thanking me for putting him down with the site.

[Calzone Lord]

Check out Snow Chief's race in '86 ... he's the horse in the bright pink silks.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=khVKgCT1p7w

He's 3-wide the entire way around the 1st turn -- and right on a 22 1/5 opening quarter set by Groovy. He makes a 4-wide sweep down the backstretch and easily puts away all the speed going into the far turn.

He ends up finishing 11th beaten 19 lengths without ever having the slightest bit of trouble.



He won the Preakness by 4 lengths over Derby winner Ferdinand next out. What a pile of sh!t ride he got in the Derby ... and Badger Land's ride was pretty brutal as well.

Broad Brush -- the horse who led after a mile in that Derby -- won the PA Derby that year despite bolting on the far turn. Here's the video of that... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mynfjuiEvyk

That '86 Derby was a pretty cool race. 22 1/5 opening quarter that year -- but on an even slower racetrack.

Maybe if the Preakness was race 8 on a Thursday in SoCal.

Can't see Harrington ever being in the mix legitimately for a TC race.

[asudevil]

Vincent Bracciale! He was a colossal d'bag. I grew up around Pimlico and Laurel and saw it first hand.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by asudevil

Vincent Bracciale! He was a colossal d'bag. I grew up around Pimlico and Laurel and saw it first hand.

Jersey Shore type Italian?

Ferdinand -- as good of a horse as he ultimately was -- was defeated in all of his next eight route races after winning the Kentucky Derby. He did win the Malibu at 7 furlongs though.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by Coach Pants

Maybe if the Preakness was race 8 on a Thursday in SoCal.

Can't see Harrington ever being in the mix legitimately for a TC race.

I'm not a Harrington fan either. But the horse always fires for him. I still prefer Bodemeister a lot over CC.

That track has been kinder on wides since Super Saver. Especially on big days...although certainly more so on Oaks day than Derby day this year.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

Check out Snow Chief's race in '86 ... he's the horse in the bright pink silks.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=khVKgCT1p7w

He's 3-wide the entire way around the 1st turn -- and right on a 22 1/5 opening quarter set by Groovy. He makes a 4-wide sweep down the backstretch and easily puts away all the speed going into the far turn.

He ends up finishing 11th beaten 19 lengths without ever having the slightest bit of trouble.



He won the Preakness by 4 lengths over Derby winner Ferdinand next out. What a pile of sh!t ride he got in the Derby ... and Badger Land's ride was pretty brutal as well.


That '86 Derby was a pretty cool race. 22 1/5 opening quarter that year -- but on an even slower racetrack.

I had Snow Chief in the future book at pretty big odds.

You should find a way to see the video for Snow Chief vs Melair vs Southern Halo.

[alysheba4]

melair, that was a freak

[keithting]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

Check out Snow Chief's race in '86 ... he's the horse in the bright pink silks.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=khVKgCT1p7w

He's 3-wide the entire way around the 1st turn -- and right on a 22 1/5 opening quarter set by Groovy. He makes a 4-wide sweep down the backstretch and easily puts away all the speed going into the far turn.

He ends up finishing 11th beaten 19 lengths without ever having the slightest bit of trouble.



He won the Preakness by 4 lengths over Derby winner Ferdinand next out. What a pile of sh!t ride he got in the Derby ... and Badger Land's ride was pretty brutal as well.

Broad Brush -- the horse who led after a mile in that Derby -- won the PA Derby that year despite bolting on the far turn. Here's the video of that... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mynfjuiEvyk

That '86 Derby was a pretty cool race. 22 1/5 opening quarter that year -- but on an even slower racetrack.

This was an interesting derby and it it always the one that I think about when there a hot early pace..Snow Chief was a really nice horse taken in by Groovy, the rabbit here...Badger Land made a big move, but folded...Broad Brush was a decent horse, but the off-track really moved him up...The race fell into Bill Shoemaker and Ferdinand's hands.. He had the perfect rail trip..Shoemaker was not the same rider at this point in his career, but he knew what to do with a golden trip....

[Gate Dancer]

I loved Mogambo in this race.............thanks for the memories.....

[pweizer]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

I'm not a Harrington fan either. But the horse always fires for him. I still prefer Bodemeister a lot over CC.

That track has been kinder on wides since Super Saver. Especially on big days...although certainly more so on Oaks day than Derby day this year.

Excellent stuff as always. Trackus also shows that CC ran farther than anyone in the race (and 70 feet more than Bode).

My main concen about Bode is having 3 big races in five weeks but I do think these are the two to focus on in the Preakness.

Paul

[Travis Stone]

My concern with Creative Cause - and I've had it all along - is that he's not exactly a powerful finisher. If anything, he sort of hangs. I think he finished better w/blinkers, and I don't think they're thinking about putting them back on anytime soon. That said, you have to consider him a top contender off his Derby performance and he figures to offer some value too.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

My concern with Creative Cause - and I've had it all along - is that he's not exactly a powerful finisher. If anything, he sort of hangs. I think he finished better w/blinkers, and I don't think they're thinking about putting them back on anytime soon. That said, you have to consider him a top contender off his Derby performance and he figures to offer some value too.

When you factor in the wide trip he endured in the Derby plus some of his personal internal fractions, the hang is understandable. He undoubtedly has to take a step forward but the Preakness is rapidly becoming an amazingly uninteresting betting race.

[pweizer]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

When you factor in the wide trip he endured in the Derby plus some of his personal internal fractions, the hang is understandable. He undoubtedly has to take a step forward but the Preakness is rapidly becoming an amazingly uninteresting betting race.

Totally agree. Beyond the Derby top two and CC, what else is there?

Paul

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by pweizer

Totally agree. Beyibnd the Derby top two and CC, what else is there?

Paul

Basically nothing. I don't get the Went the Day Well love at all. That horse had a huge setup and ran in garbage time.

[The Bid]

cc doesn't like being inside horses. He's wide by design. a smaller field he gets that outside trip he will probably win

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

Whittingham wasn't a big bute or lasix guy I guess.




I've heard conspiracy stuff about how Sunday Silence was juiced up before the Kentucky Derby ... but his gigantic Santa Anita Derby win earned a MUCH better figure than his Derby win.

Sunday Silence was all over the track in the Derby. He was bumping into horses out of the gate. P. Val had him shifting in and out going into the 1st turn trying to race ride Easy Goer. In the stretch, Sunday Silence was all over the place...veering sharply in and out.

Easy Goer obviously hated the mud at Churchill. He ran the two worst races of his life over it outside of his career debut.

Two great horses in an ugly stagger fest of a race where neither had anything close to its best stuff.