monmouth race 13

[MISTERGEE]

is this a normal progression leading to victory for Wicked Brew race 13 at Monmouth, here are his last 4 races going in to todays victory.
11th beaten 31 lengths
11th beaten 39 3/4 lengths
10th beaten 30 lengths
stumled dnf in his first try (and best race before today)

and then of course today wins!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[pucknut]

its an older trainer angle seldom seen on the easy coast
lose three races by 100 lengths the next race is the best race in the form cycle

shows a .500 roi
crazy game

[the_fat_man]

I didn't bet this horse but, looking at the charts, it wasn't impossible. There are some factors involved that make sense. Like the class drop. And the fact that it was the 2nd sprint after a route, after a layoff. More generally, that very popular 3rd off a layoff.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

I didn't bet this horse but, looking at the charts, it wasn't impossible. There are some factors involved that make sense. Like the class drop. And the fact that it was the 2nd sprint after a route, after a layoff. More generally, that very popular 3rd off a layoff.

Please - you'd have had him singled!

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Please - you'd have had him singled!

DrugS

Surely you've come to appreciate the angle where: a horse shows speed routing (after a layoff and stumbling at the start, in this case); then is chasing the pace sprinting, to a wire job, next time out; then comes back in another sprint. Doesn't it make sense that the horse will have better speed the 2nd time sprinting? (and dropping in class)

I realize you're a follower of LAKE and figure that since his route speed horses ROUTINELY wire (seemingly faster early horses) in sprints, all horses can run this way.