FormBlog: '08 Debut Sire Stats

[Kasept]

Interesting debuting sire numbers by Dan Ilman in his FormBlog the other day...

The bad, followed by the good:

Under 5% (at least 20 starters):

Action This Day - 1-33 (3%)
A.P Jet - 1-27 (4%)
Aptitude - 1-50 (2%)
Arch - 1-34 (3%)
Authenticate - 1-38 (3%)
Beau Genius - 1-26 (4%)
B L's Appeal - 1-24 (4%)
Brahms - 1-48 (2%)
Champali - 1-25 (4%)
Civilisation - 1-26 (4%)
The Cliffs Edge - 1-33 (3%)
Concordes Tune - 1-35 (3%)
Cryptoclearance - 1-27 (4%)
Diamond - 1-27 (4%)
Dixieland Band - 1-27 (4%)
Dove Hunt - 1-24 (4%)
Dream Run - 1-25 (4%)
D'wildcat - 1-24 (4%)
Easyfromthegitgo - 1-28 (4%)
El Corredor - 2-68 (3%)
Favorite Trick - 1-24 (4%)
Freespool - 1-27 (4%)
Gone Hollywood - 1-27 (4%)
Gone West - 1-29 (3%)
Grindstone - 1-24 (4%)
High Yield - 1-49 (2%)
Hook and Ladder - 1-42 (2%)
Horse Chestnut - 1-44 (2%)
Ide - 1-36 (3%)
Karens Cat - 1-23 (4%)
Leestown - 1-46 (2%)
Lido Palace - 1-28 (4%)
Lit de Justice - 1-32 (3%)
Littleexpectations - 1-26 (4%)
Louis Quatorze - 2-46 (4%)
Minardi - 1-29 (3%)
Mineshaft - 2-56 (4%)
One Way Love - 1-29 (3%)
Out of Place - 1-32 (3%)
Partners Hero - 1-30 (3%)
Patton - 1-24 (4%)
Paynes Bay - 1-26 (4%)
Perigee Moon - 1-24 (4%)
Pleasant Tap - 1-36 (3%)
Rahy - 1-26 (4%)
Repent - 1-54 (2%)
Saarland - 1-26 (4%)
Scrimshaw - 1-28 (4%)
Silver Deputy - 1-44 (2%)
Silver Ghost - 1-23 (4%)
Skimming - 2-50 (4%)
Sligo Bay - 2-45 (4%)
Storm Creek - 1-39 (3%)
Storm Day - 2-53 (4%)
Stormin Fever - 1-37 (3%)
Sunday Break - 2-47 (4%)
Tenpins - 1-26 (4%)
Tomorrows Cat - 1-28 (4%)
Untuttable - 1-30 (3%)
Victory Gallop - 1-61 (2%)
Wiseman's Ferry - 1-41 (2%)
Yes It's True - 3-68 (4%)


Over 20% (at least 20 starters)

Bold n Flashy - 5-21 (24%)
Dome - 6-21 (29%)
Early Flyer - 5-22 (23%)
Elusive Quality - 10-46 (22%)
Greenwood Lake - 5-23 (22%)
Indian Charlie - 14-67 (21%)
Macho Uno - 11-45 (24%)
Red Bullet - 7-26 (27%)
Seeking the Gold - 5-24 (21%)
Slewdledo - 9-40 (22%)
Snowbound - 6-20 (30%)
West Acre - 8-29 (28%)

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

dont see candy ride..hmmm

[philcski]

Originally Posted by hoovesupsideyourhead

dont see candy ride..hmmm

He was 14% last I saw...

[freddymo]

Pulpit?

[citycat]

Can you explain these numbers more? Stallion Register indicates that The Cliffs Edge has 11 winners out of 37 runners which is quite different from 1/33

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by citycat

Can you explain these numbers more? Stallion Register indicates that The Cliffs Edge has 11 winners out of 37 runners which is quite different from 1/33

These numbers are for First Time Starters from the sires.

Of TCE's first 33 runners, only ONE won its' First Start..

[citycat]

Thanks for the clarification. I guess that is pretty much a betting angle. As a owner you just hope they learn something from the first start and come back in good shape. Yes its great to win the first time out but there are so many, many variables as to how your horse performs the first time out. Sometimes you cant get the race you want/or you get a bad hole. Another angle is that some trainers do not even "ramp" em up for the first start. It does not tell you how good the horse will be but I guess its a bettors angle. I think the stallion register stats of runners/winners is a much better tool for both wagering and stallion evaluation

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by citycat

Thanks for the clarification. I guess that is pretty much a betting angle. As a owner you just hope they learn something from the first start and come back in good shape. Yes its great to win the first time out but there are so many, many variables as to how your horse performs the first time out. Sometimes you cant get the race you want/or you get a bad hole. Another angle is that some trainers do not even "ramp" em up for the first start. It does not tell you how good the horse will be but I guess its a bettors angle. I think the stallion register stats of runners/winners is a much better tool for both wagering and stallion evaluation

winning first out is great if you are looking to sell otherwise I can't see why anyone would be that concerned (unless you were betting of course)

[VOL JACK]

Debuting sire stats are VERY skewed by trainers. A trainer like Shug that doesn't crank on one early isn't gonna winning 1st out, no matter what the pedigree.
On the other hand, Wes Ward could take a Dixieland Band or any of those other bad win early sires and win out of the box.


It's funny how reputations and actually data can vary.
Yes it's True has been known for years has a great debuting sire.
Hook and Ladder was the hot new 1st out Sire last year.

[citycat]

And I could be a little biased in my opinion in that I have only owned one horse who won the first time out...................she never won again,,lol

[citycat]

Kind of in the same line of questioning........what would you do given this situation. Lets say you have a free season to Malibu Moon (40K) but the werk tells you the rating is a D. But you can go get a season for someone like Kipling for 5K and it matches your mare to an A rating. Given that is all you know about the mare do you just take the gamble with a free Malibu Moon or do you take the werk ratings that serious and get a good match for 5K.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by citycat

Kind of in the same line of questioning........what would you do given this situation. Lets say you have a free season to Malibu Moon (40K) but the werk tells you the rating is a D. But you can go get a season for someone like Kipling for 5K and it matches your mare to an A rating. Given that is all you know about the mare do you just take the gamble with a free Malibu Moon or do you take the werk ratings that serious and get a good match for 5K.

Selling or racing?

[Indian Charlie]

inxs is like 25%.

or was anyways, before the cancer took over california racing.