1/1: Santa Anita ($587k C/O)

[Kasept]

New Year's Eve carryover card at Arcadia proved as impossible as it looked going in, and a monster pot opens '08 with a $3,000,000+ pool likely by 5pm EST today..

Third leg (5th race) winner Latin Lobo ($73) was the biggest culprit in producing the double carry, and at first glance was a total headscratcher. The Petionville colt was making his 2nd start after an "off bit slow" uninvolved 9th in his debut, and Marcelo Polanco had won 6% in his last 34 2nd career starts according to DRF. But looking at Polanco's Thoro-Graph Trainer Profile stats, a couple of clues jump out and should be stored in the memory banks.

Within the T-G percentages, in his last 36 2nd starts, Polanco's runners had paired up performance figs 9 times (25%) and moved forward a stunning 18 times (50%). Polanco has been win cold, but has been getting pair ups and new "tops" to the tune of 68% of his 'last 90 days' starters (19 starts). Latin Lobo was only a handful of lengths behind the tops choices and merited more than a glance at 35-1. Given that he has been getting improvement or treading water without victories, the win may also signal that Polanco is primed for more winners at the prestigous Santa Anita meet... especially for highly demanding top client "Everest Stables".

Card Tuesday, which includes Gr. III El Conejo and Monrovia, appears more manageable for those looking to start the annum with a big score...


SANTA ANITA


Rolling DD through 9th; .10 Supers in all but 8th/10th..


5th: CLM, F&M-4+, 6.5f-DHT (P6, P3)

Best Value: #6 Miss Connie Sue 15-1
Most Likely: #12 LA TORMENTA 2-1 WON
Next Best: #11 La Matanza 5-1 4th
Exotics Add: #4 Formal Rush 8-1 2nd


6th: MSW, 3yo, 7f (P3)

Best Value: #5 Crown of Thornes 6-1 WON
Most Likely: #8 Masterwork 7-2 2nd
Next Best: #7 Square Deal 5-2 3rd
Exotics Add: #3 That's Grand 5-1


7th: ALW/N1X, F&M-4+, 9f-T (P4, P3)

Best Value: #10 ISLAND HOP 10-1
Most Likely: #5 Siamese Cat 7-2 WON
Next Best: #3 Forest Melody 9-2 3rd
Exotics Add: #9 Athena Two O Four 10-1


8th: Cal-bred OC/N1X, F&M-4+, 6.5f (P3)

Best Value & Most Likely: #7 Sunday Dress 4-1 WON
Next Best: #1 Sneaky Jack 3-1 2nd
Exotics Add: #2 Ask Sam 5-1


9th: 41st Monrovia (Gr. III), F&M-4+, 6.5f-DHT

Best Value: #7 Alexandra Rose 8-1 WON
Most Likely: #2 SCR
Next Best: #6 Audacious Chloe 3-1
Exotics Add: #10 Strong Faith 7-2


10th: MDN CLM, 4+, 6f (Hi-5)

Best Value: #5 PREMIER WON 8-1
Most Likely: #14 KICKIN BACK 6-1
Next Best: #7 Bertie Boy 12-1
Exotics Add: #11 Mas Hombre 8-1

<$50 Super High 5:

5-14/5-14 over 7-9-11-12

2x1x4x3x2 = $48


<$150 P6 Play:

5: 12
6: 7-8
7: 3-5-10
8: 1-7
9: 2-SCR-6-10
10: 5-14

1x2x3x2x2x2 = 36 x $2 = $72


<$50 P4 Play:

7: 3-5-10
8: 1-7
9: 2-SCR-6-7-10
10: 5-14

3x2x3x2 = $36


Good luck!
Steve