monmouth park

[cassie]

a beautiful racetrack but with short fields and overbetting on joe bravo its almost impossible to make a decent hit yesterday 7 of 10 racws paid un der $5.00 pick3 minimal k

[MaTH716]

They would bet Bravo down to 5/2 if he was on a zebra! It's tough to beat the speed there. It seems that horses that come from Tampa have been doing OK. It also seems like the majority of the horses running are all coming off long layoffs. I guess that they only run the Jersey circuit and take the winters off, it is very wierd. The jockey colony is pretty deep, I do not like Jersey Joe. But you also have Castro, Centeno, Lezcano, Garcia and don't laugh Eddie King brings in alot of horses there too. DeCarlo only rides a couple a day. They are usually live, then again most of them are Pletcher horses.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by cassie

a beautiful racetrack but with short fields and overbetting on joe bravo its almost impossible to make a decent hit yesterday 7 of 10 racws paid un der $5.00 pick3 minimal k

Agree, however the multirace wagers can be very profitable if you beat one or two favorites in a P3 sequence. Case in point, races 6-8 the $2 parlay value was $158 and the $2 P3 paid $299; the p5 $1 parlay value was $302 and the payoff (albeit with a small carryover included) was a whopping $4,602.
Outside of Saratoga, there isn't a place I'd like to spend a sunny Saturday than Monmouth.

[philcski]

To continue this P5 analysis ($1 parlay, $1 payoff):
6/2/2007: $302, $4,602
6/1/2007: [not hit]
5/28/2007: $225.08, $691.00
5/27/2007: $54,683.33, $23,544.00
5/26/2007: $2,571.09, $10,582.00
5/20/2007: $809.10, $4,883.00
5/19/2007: $400.60, $2,596.00
5/13/2007: $2,281.66, $4,928.00
5/12/2007: $206.22, $346.00

The only time the payoff was significantly higher than the parlay was the 27th and that payoff was a 50 cent pool sweeper. Doubt they were complaining.

[hockey2315]

I'd take Castro or Lezcano over Bravo and get triple the price. . .

[ELA]

Sometimes it can be tough to find value there -- track bias, trainer/jock colony, etc. It's especially tough with Bravo because 2nd and 3rd choices could in fact become the favorite, co-favorite or a tight 2nd choice. Bravo can make a big difference at Monmouth, both on the board and on the track. I've won races with horses that shouldn't have won because of Bravo -- strictly because of strategy and him outriding other jocks. It's tactical. I've also won races where I should have finished second because of a little "move" or something of the like.

He "knows" the track, and understands it in a way that others tend not to. He also picks up on the nuances before others.

Eric

[golfer]

He also rides first call for almost all the top trainers, so you have a situation like yesterday, when he got beat by a horse he rode the previous time, because he chose another horse (Breen). It just adds to the handicapping mystery.