Dunbar - Morning line for the Derby

[Scav]

Get busy and set it, you are always spot on with this stuff. Just do the top 15, as I could care less about the horses that might get in from the Lexington this weekend

[Dunbar]

Thanks for the compliment, Scav.

Do you mean a "morning line" that predicts what the bettors will do, or a "fair odds line" that represent my own estimate of each horse's chance to win?

If you mean a morning line for how the bettors will bet, then I don't think you can do much better than using the closing odds from Future Pool 3, after adjusting a bit for the post-Ark Derby Curlin euphoria. Push Curlin up from 7-2 to maybe 9-2, and make up the difference by lowering the odds on Nobiz and Dominican a bit.

If you mean a fair odds line, I'll get right to work on it! ;<)

--Dunbar

[jpops757]

Originally Posted by Scav

Get busy and set it, you are always spot on with this stuff. Just do the top 15, as I could care less about the horses that might get in from the Lexington this weekend

Belgravia is the only one from the Lex that could have any thing less than double diget odds. Im not sure they would even go to the derby if he wins though. Just wait on the Preakness.