Quote:
Originally Posted by Kasept
Joe.
There's going to be a lot of that in this Derby on exactly the scenario I suggest: picking a pace and choosing horses under its' guidelines. If you take 2 late runners, it could be Mo Tom and Brody's Cause as easily as Creator and Suddenbreakingnews. If you want near lead and mid-pack types it can be Nyquist and Mor Spirit or Outwork and Exaggerator or Gun Runner and Destin. That's what makes this such an interesting wagering opportunity.
What I wanted to do with the analysis was give readers an approach. The horses are really secondary. I'd be as comfortable with Outwork, Mor Spirit, Shagaf, Trojan Nation as the 4 price players. Plug in your own.. Everyone knows who the major players are. Take 4-6 of the offbeat players, play them in an attempt at a huge score (EX & TRI boxes or keys if you feel strongly about a particular price) as well as hooking them up with the obvious (backwheeled under the faves).
I think you play this particular Derby for a chaotic result. Going to be a fun week! G/L..
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I agree with your chaotic result thought. I see it one of two ways: (1) Nyquist wins easily, because he's simply better than these, or (2) he doesn't want to 10F or doesn't run his race and there's mass chaos. I'm playing for #2.