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Originally Posted by RolloTomasi
I'm not sure why you are hung up on the Florida Derby figure as if it is out of line. Does it matter? Upstart and Materiality where non-factors in their classic starts, that doesn't mean the figure for one race is bad. Both ran far below expectations and in fact have running lines that suggests something physically is amiss.
For years now, people have commented on certain big-figure horses at Gulfstream turning back into "pumpkins" outside it's friendly confines. Someone would have to go back and look closer at the average speed figures down there versus those by the same horses at other racetracks to perhaps identify a trend of this happening.
An obvious explanation for this is the permissive medication rules in Florida, which actually allows horses to be treated not only with lasix, but also with a potent fast-acting anti-inflammatory drug on raceday. It would be interesting to see what percentage of starters are treated with this drug.
Finally, it can't be at all shocking to think that figure wise, the Belmont Stakes tends to get lower figures than other races. It's a 12 furlong race. Just because a horse can run a 112 BSF for 9f, doesn't mean it will run a similar figure at 12f.
See Coach Inge's numbers...if you think they are relevant.
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The fig is accurate for the Florida derby but frequently "makers" revisit numbers and adjust them accordingly. Seems to me this one needs adjusting. Now if you subscribe to GP horses will always run faster because of more permissive medication on race day then it certainly enhances the BIG Fig Florida Derby rhetoric. I think we have seen plenty of GP runners not be able to replicate their GP form and that hopefully is abated soon with some more stringent testing practices in 2016? Who knows?