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Originally Posted by King Glorious
My point was that if this was a nw1x race at the same distance on this same track and date, would you have a problem with it.
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Not only class level, but distance, too. As I said earlier, I would have stomached a start in the Amsterdam (Coal Front was relatively untested himself).
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I'm wondering if your issue was more with the conditions or with the supposed class of the race? If it was with the class, I'm saying there was no need to worry because the class wasn't really as classy as the level would have suggested.
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You can disparage a Derby winner and a Preakness winner (never mind the eventual winner, who had Grade 1 form on turf), as seems to be the consensus following the race, but the fact of the matter is they held a ton over Pavel in terms of experience, stamina, shipping, etc. They were clearly better than a non-winners 1x race where logically Pavel should have landed after his debut.
Whether or not Pavel is ultimately superior to those horses, those seemingly insignificant details are important, not just for this race, but for races going forward.
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I think in many cases, where we would expect to see the old, logical progressions, it's wasted opportunity because the difference between the good and the bad is razor thin and getting smaller each year.
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This ignores the difference between experience and naivety, which is perennially on display in 2yo maiden special weights across the country.
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With shorter and shorter careers, might as well throw them in deep early.
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This is a fatalist's approach and results in a vicious circle.