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Originally Posted by Honu
Have any of you guys seen the big signs that D. Wayne has at his barns, the one that says how many world champs he's trained and how many derby winners and blah blah blah. Baffert has the same kind of signs at his barn too.
I wonder why they dont have a sign posting how many horses they trained that never made it to the races or that never started after their 3 yr old year, or that broke down in races and in the mornings? I guess that wouldnt be condusive to getting clients and bragging huh.
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I don't think most people even realize how extreme it is. Of all the yearlings and 2 year olds that Lukas gets, I would guess that no more than 1-2% of them are still running competively as 4 and 5 year olds. When do you ever see Lukas winning a race with a 4 or 5 year old? Practically never. I would guess that 98% of his horses don't last passed their 3 year old year. It has nothing to do with the horses being retired for breeding before they get that old. How many horses stand at stud? It can't be more than 5% of his horses. So that certainly doesn't explain 98% of his horses being retired ny the end of their 3 year old year.
If you look at trainers like Mandella, Frankel, Plethcer, etc. I'll bet that around 30-40% of their horses are still around and racing as 4 and 5 year olds. That's a helluva lot higher than 1% or 2%. It's possible that Lukas' number could be a tiny bit higher than my estimate. The number could be more like 5% if you count horses like Going Wild that are still running, but who aren't half the horse that they used to be. Going wild used to be competitive in graded stakes races. Now he can't even win an allowance race. If you count horses like him, then Lukas' number of horses still running as 4 and 5 year olds could possibly be about 5%. But if you are talking about horses that are still at the top of their game, then I think the number is about 1% or 2%.