[ateamstupid]

Thx casp. Very relaxing!

Sunday, July 21

Early Pick 4:

2nd: While I acknowledge that Clement's 2nd-timer #2 Red Vine is the horse to beat off a very nice debut, there are a few others that interest me. #1 First Beach comes out of the same race as the favorite and while he saved more ground on the turn, he really had nowhere to run in the stretch and put in a pretty good close when he finally got clear. I don't think the difference between the two is the 2 lengths they were separated by. First Beach showed promise in his dirt debut for a barn that races them into shape and I think he'll show up with his best race yet today. #5 All That is bred pretty well for grass and is moved to the turf by Chad Brown off a pretty nice dirt race. That's good enough for me. I'll also use #7 Rapscallion at a price. His damside breeding is all grass, Speightstowns run on anything and Motion tried to get him on turf at Delaware last time; the race was rained off and he still showed up with a much-improved effort off his debut.

3rd: If you have a strong opinion about someone in this race, you're a bolder handicapper than I. This is a total scramble to me and I'm spreading accordingly. The one thing I'll bank on is there being a quick pace, as there are two fast one-way speeds in #5 Thinking of Girls and #10 Derby Watch, along with several other stalkers with good early speed. Of the two speedballs, I'll only use Thinking of Girls. Derby Watch's huge race two-back came over a very speed-biased track and I don't think his last is good enough to win this. #4 School Spirit's last race wins this, but he faces a much, much tougher field today. I'll use several big-priced closers in the event of a total meltdown. In no particular order, give me #2 Poised to a Tee, #4 School Spirit, #5 Thinking of Girls, #6 Reggie D, #8 Bemata, #9 Harley, #12 Shotinthefog and #13 Poliziano.

4th: I'll take my shot singling #6 Uno Duo. Her last race was a really good effort, as she shook off several pace challengers who ended up running well below their BSF tops and opened up in midstretch before being caught on the line by the tripped-out Irish Lute, who's probably better than anyone in this field. She's gotten better with every race and looks like a future stakes horse. She also draws that valuable outside slot, so Rosario will have options depending on who, if anyone, sends. The only horse that seriously worries me is #5 Pow Wow Wow, who did nothing but chase nice horses at Gulfstream and whose best isn't far off what the favorite ran last time. I'll hedge with her if the sequence looks like it's going to pay well after the first two legs.

5th: Another race where I think price-fishing is appropriate. There are no stickouts, though I respect the two M/L favorites #3 Tater Downs and #5 Wild Billum. Tater Downs' race two-back would almost certainly win this and he faces an easier field today than he did last out. Wild Billum made a big close into a slow pace to win his turf debut, running his final 5/16 in a very sharp :28.21. I really like #12 Wildcatter as well; Tom Voss always comes to the paddock with live horses in the flat races at Saratoga and his form from last summer is plenty competitive with this group. I'll also use #1 Street Fight, who chased a fast horse through a fast pace two back and still ran a very creditable 3rd. His last effort was considerably less heartening, but it was on 10 days' rest, so maybe he gets back to the previous race with more time and several stamina-enhancing works in the interim. #7 Vindication Now ran much better than the BSF suggests in his last, as he was wide all the way around the track and still powered away in the stretch. Obviously this is a much tougher field, but he'll be a fair price. This race might be too short for #9 Myhorseofcourse, but he showed a serious closing punch over the winter at Gulfstream and the presence of Lezcano is always a positive on the grass.

$.50 1,2,5,7/2,4,5,6,8,9,12,13/6/1,3,5,7,9,12 $96
Race 5 $4 WIN 12