Quote:
Originally Posted by ninetoone
I don't post my picks often (probably for a reason) but I'll be putting a decent win bet on Collaborate. I like the potential upside and I think some of the others in the field are distractors. I don't think he necessarily needs the lead to win. I'd be happy to get the morning line, but I expect a bit less...
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When I identify a bad favorite and land on a horse ridden by someone other than Irad Ortiz, my record is not good. In these scenarios (big races), I'm not sure what my ROI would be if I had just blindly bet Irad instead, but it would be much higher. This one especially stings because the hype around Collaborate actually helped him (Irad) go off at good/fair odds, which is pretty rare. From a gambling perspective, normally I'd have been all over Known Agenda, but ironically I think my pride got in the way a little bit posting my opinion in advance. Obviously I realize it's mostly about the horse, but I just can't ignore this scenario....and Irad is definitely my guy. I had a bad feeling before the race started that he was going to get me. I did catch him/Pletcher on a pretty big win bet in the BCC Classic on Vino Rosso a couple years ago though in this scenario! This should have been another....I blew it!
I used to employ this same strategy with Ramon back in the day. It was rare to get him at good/fair odds too. Occasionally though, he would get ignored. His win on Better Talk Now in the Breeder's Cup Turf over Kitten's Joy was probably my 2nd happiest moment ever as a gambler, behind Pleasantly Perfect's win in the BCC at 14-1....(that was Solis)