Quote:
Originally Posted by ateamstupid
You know this, but there's no empirical formula here on either side, it's just rough forecasting based on circumstances and opinion. The point of the future wager is to get significantly better odds than you think are likely on Derby day. I think El Areeb has a reasonable chance to win his next two preps convincingly, in which case he'll likely be a third of his future odds or less in the Derby. If you think he has a 2% chance to win the Derby, I just disagree.
I agree with you that future wagers in general are a bad bet, but this stuck out to me as one that may not be, considering my positive opinion of the horse and the favorable circumstances surrounding his path to the Derby.
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Without actually doing the math, this "opinion" can't really be defended. It's really a math equation...and nothing else.
The odds of him winning both the remaining NY preps "easily" enough for him to be 6:1, or 14%, in the Derby are VERY high. High enough, in fact, that 50:1 is likely an underlay. Even an optimistic 50% in the Gotham and 30% in the Wood, and those are very optimistic, make him 50:1 in the Derby. Those are not the chances of him winning the preps, they are the chances of him winning them impressively enough for him to be a so far decidedly unrealistic 6:1 in the Derby.