[Kasept]

CHURCHILL DOWNS


POST-SCRATCHES


5th: 21st Matt Winn (G3), 3yo, 8.5f (P5, P3, DD)

Justify parades about 90 minutes before Ax Man parades here. As mentioned on Wknd Prvw ATR, Home Base (10-1) may be emerging and should be more prepared for the stretch out now..

Most Likely: #7 Ax Man 4-5 3rd
Best Value: #2 Home Base 10-1 6th
Next Best: #5 Combatant 4-1 5th
Exotics Use: #3 Funny Duck 5-1 4th


6th: 29th Wise Dan (G2), 3+, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

As discussed before the Dixie was scuttled on Preakness Day, World Approval's no show in the Kilroe was particularly alarming, but the extra 3 weeks may a plus for the Live Oak home bred by versatile Lonhro who has worked sharp and runs well fresh. Divisidero an obvious player. 4yo debut of Parlor (10-1) was terrific for streaking Kenneally (28/13 at meet for 46%) and remember that he knocked on the door of good horses as a 3yo. Mr Cub (10-1) should keep Shining Copper SCR'D company up front and will be the target for late runners. Mr. Misunderstood is dirtied up having improved as a 4yo with very little to show for it in Grade I, II and III tries..

POST SCR NOTE: With Shining Copper coming out, elevating Mr Cub who is now controlling speed..

Best Value: #6 Mr Cub 10-1 3rd
Next Best: #4 World Approval 6-5 6th
Exotics Use: #8 Parlor 10-1 5th
Super Add: #1 Divisidero 3-1 4th


7th: 43rd Fleur de Lis H. (G2), F&M-3+, 9f (P5, P3, DD)

2nd/3rd choices Blue Prize & Valadorna feel like the top players ahead of ML fave Farrell who will face plenty of pace pressure from her inside. Awestruck (from Rusty Arnold & Watts Humphrey) is a distaff version of Parlor having lurched forward as a 4yo..

Most Likely: #3 Blue Prize 7-2 WON ($6.60)
Best Value: #6 Awestruck 8-1 4th
Next Best: #7 Valadorna 4-1 6th
Exotics Use: #5 Song of Spring 6-1 5th


8th: 38th Stephen Foster H. (G1), 3+, 9f (P4, P3, DD)

Clearly a repeat of the Alysheba makes Backyard Heaven a winner here, but there is pace to his outside in need-the-lead Irish War Cry and inside from Uncle Mojo. Patch's return was -- wait for it -- eye-opening and Hawaakom has pace to chase. Pavel may have found a clever spot. Honorable Duty will save ground in an up-close stalking trip. Lookin At Lee showed a new dimension in Derby Day ALW win. Matrooh, a three-quarter to Funny Cide, came alive in the Hanshin when trying the poly..

Best Value: #2 Patch 10-1 6th
Next Best: #6 Backyard Heaven 6-5 7th
Exotics Use: #9 Pavel 5-1 WON ($15.60)
Super Add: #7 Lookin At Lee 12-1 8th


9th: 49th Regret (G3), 3yo-F, 9f-T (P3, DD, Hi-5)

Crazily competitive group for $100k. I count 8 with a chance to win..

Most Likely: #8 Beyond Blame 6-1 WON ($9.00)
Best Value: #6 Cash Out 12-1 5th
Next Best: #13 Stave 8-1 8th
Exotics Use: #3 She's Pretty Lucky 10-1 10th


P5 Grid:

5: 7 (A), 2 (B), 3-4-5-6 (C)
6: 4-6-8 (A), - (B), 1-5 (C)
7: 3-6-7 (A), - (B), 2-5-9 (C)
8: 2-6 (A), 7-9 (B), 3-4-8 (C)
9: 6-8 (A), - (B), 1-3-7-13 (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x3x3x4x2 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 1x3x3x2x2 = 36 x .50 = $18


P4 Grid:

6: 4-6 (A), 1-8 (B), 3-5-7 (C)
7: 3-6-7 (A), - (B), 2-5-9 (C)
8: 2-6 (A), 7-9 (B), 3-4-8 (C)
9: 6-8-13 (A), - (B), 1-3-7 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x3x4x3 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 2x3x2x3 = 36 x .50 = $18


Good luck!
Steve