[ateamstupid]

Total Invested: $500
Total Returned: $776.85
Net: +$276.85
$2 ROI: $3.11

After taking it on the chin Sunday and Monday, it was satisfying to convert on some good opinions yesterday and get solidly back in the black heading into the teeth of Week Two. Profetiza proved to be a good play-against in the first leg and though I got lucky when heavy chalk Town Hall blew the far turn in the 3rd, it's still about having the horse to benefit from such fortune. Overlaid Nevada and trusty George Weaver helped boost the potential payout and Mama Zee took advantage of a fast pace to close the deal in the last leg. Finding success at Saratoga is all about avoiding starts and stops, so let's dig in to Thursday's interesting card and build some momentum.

The bookend legs of this sequence will have heavily favored and imposing Pletcher firsters, but with the 3rd looking like a scramble, you need only beat one of them to produce a worthwhile return.

2nd: #1 Corfu brings a Barrett's March sales-topping $675,000 purchase price and a super best-of-43 half-mile from the gate Friday to the table. It's entirely reasonable to think he blasts out of the gate and never looks back. He does, however, draw the rail in a 5-furlong dash, so his margin for error at the start is slim. I'm interested in two others, particularly #2 Aarons Orient. The modestly bred bay sold for 15 times his sire's stud fee after putting up a :10 furlong at OBS April and I'm intrigued by his worktab. Asmussen has never been the type to let his horses fly in the mornings, but take a look at this one's three gate breezes: 6/19 4f in :47.80 (4th of 46), 6/26 4f in :47.20 (1st of 22), 7/15 5f in 1:00.20 (5th of 18). Fast works on the page are much more meaningful if they're uncharacteristic for the trainer and that fits here. #6 Pure Sensation goes out for Clement, who's known much more for his work with 2YO turf routers 1st out than 2YO dirt sprinters, but it's not as if he's incapable in these spots with the right horse, and Pure Sensation may be that. By the brilliant Zensational, son of Unbridled's Song, he's out of multiple stakes winning NJ-bred Pure Disco. Mike Welsch gave Pure Sensation rave reviews for his pre-meet Time Trial win. He's value at anything near his 12-1 M/L price. #5 Crescent is most likely a runner too. He's out of the fast and precocious Grade 1 placed sprinter Lovely Isle and shows some quick breezes. Like most Mott firsters in these spots though, he'll probably need a race.

3rd: Though I'll use her defensively, I'm against the likely favorite in here, #4 She's Coal Fired. After an OK 2nd in her Churchill debut, she challenged Yes Liz in her next start for a 1/4 mile before completely throwing in the towel. Wesley Ward's 2YOs usually show what they're going to show early on and don't get better with more racing, so the idea that she'll not only return to her debut but produce the improvement likely necessary to win this is not a good betting proposition, especially as the chalk. I prefer two of the firsters. #2 Thundering Gale looks dangerous. Kenneally is 11-for-35 ($2.24 ROI) with 2YOs 1st time out in maiden claiming dirt sprints and this filly is a full sister to GSP sprinter Knights Cross (98 BSF top). Being a homebred by a $2,000 sire, the fact that she debuts for a tag isn't the negative it would be for some other horses. #6 Friends Pro is out of a productive dam and reportedly looked very good in her 7/15 gate work. #5 Icing On the Cake is eligible to improve a lot adding Lasix 2nd time out for Ian Wilkes. #1 Chase My Tail broke last and was steadied early in her debut, then rushed up after the eventual winner before fading in the lane. It could be a different ballgame with a clean break, but there's also the chance she's not that good.

4th: Familiar NY-bred stakes fillies meet up going 7f. I like #1 Beautiful But Blue, even though she's coming off four straight losses against some of these horses. Her 2nd race off the layoff was a much improved effort. She was part of a fast pace from which the frontrunner finished last, beaten 22 3/4 and the other chaser was 4th, beaten 6. She was headed at the 1/8 pole by Miss Valentine but still battled gamely to only lose by a half-length and I think the cutback, plus the return to Saratoga, where her two best performances came, will help her turn the tables. #5 Willet is the other horse I want. She was terrible in her comeback race, but any of her last three races before the layoff can win this and obviously if she runs anything close to her Iroquois, they're all running for 2nd. I think it's a positive that the barn reaches out to Rosario as well. I don't want #2 Clear Pasaj, who took advantage of a dull Beautiful But Blue to win the Dancing Renee on a soft pace. I'll use the consistent #3 Miss Valentine as a B, but I think if either Beautiful But Blue or Willet run their A race, she won't be good enough to win.

5th: This looks like the race Pletcher is more likely to win. $325,000 OBS March purchase and Stopchargingmaria workmate #6 Our Amazing Rose is posted well outside and doesn't run up against many good 1st-out barns, with two Albertranis, a Contessa and a Shug in the race. The only one that looks interesting is Trombetta firster Jerry Love, by win-early sire Not for Love and a full sister to stakes-winning sprinter Akronism. Her drills have been as consistent as a metronome and include several five-furlong breezes, so she should be ready to go 1st out. #5 Zip On got bet 1st out, made a fairly easy lead and gave it up in the stretch in a slow race.

$.50 1,2,6/1,2,4,5,6/1,3,5/4,6 $45
$1.50 1,2,6/2,6/1,5/6 $18
$1 1/1,2,4,5,6/1,3,5/6 $15
Race 5 $8 DBL 6/7,8 $16
Race 5 $3 DBL 4/7,8 $6