Quote:
Originally Posted by theguarantee
^That makes more sense. Does anyone actually believe she will be second choice though?
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She might be. 2 grade 1 wins and her jockey is always bet.
Here are my Oaks thoughts from a few days ago. The draw changed nothing.
Untapable—X. Clearly the horse to beat, but I’ll try to beat her. She’s going to be 7-5 or lower vs a big field. She will be singled on 80% of the 2 day pick 3 tickets, that’s all Im looking to play Friday. If she wins I’ll be back for Saturday, if she gets beat I should be setup on some solid tickets.
Sugar Shock—X. Seems like one of many potential speeds, seems a bit slow to me. She might also have distance limitations as she lugged out badly 2 back.
Fashion Place—X. Another speed horse, she has gotten away with murder 2 starts in a row. Even if she was the loan speed I would not cover. Nothing wrong w/ a dual G1 winner, but she is not for me.
My Miss Sophia—A. Potential superstar. Has to improve to beat the top horse, but they all do. She feels like the 1 filly who can beat Untapable even if Untapable runs her good race.
Rosalind—B. I think she is clearly a better synthetic horse. She got a wicked pace in the BC Juvy Fillies, she should have blown by the leaders and kinda just plugged along. I don’t love her, but I think she gets the same pace again, and she’s doing well right now off of the big Keeneland dead heat. I think she was clearly best in that dead heat as Joel moved her early.
Got Lucky—A. On paper she’s not good enough. I get it, but I see excuses in her last 2. Both races were pace less, both races she appears to be getting scrubbed on early, both races she comes running a little for second. On paper the Oaks fast should be quick and she can be a player late. She’s like Rosalind w/ more upside.
Aurelias Belle—X. Consistent runner, another who is better on synthetics. Her dirt races are simply not good enough. If she was going 1st time dirt I would give her a look at 20-1, but she’s already proven to be just mediocre on dirt.
Ria Antonia—X. The worst BC Juvy Fillies winner ever, actually ran well last time out chasing an easy leader. Shes just not that good, even the GOAT cant get her home in this race.
Kiss Moon—X. Only 1 bad career race, but just seems overmatched to me. Working well, if I played in race exotics I would use her underneath.
Fiftyshadesofgold—X. Another speed horse. She would be much better off in the 8 Belles earlier on the card. I would give her a long look in that race on the cutback against the defending 2yr old filly champ.
Unbridled Forever—B. Not a fan of her trainer, but a huge fan of this filly. Her mom won this race at a huge price, not that that matters. Should sit a perfect trip as an overlay, everyone but the top 2 will be overlays in this race.
Thank You Marylou—X. Her trainer comes off a horrible Keeneland meet. She looks like a closing sprinter to me. Like We Miss Artie on Saturday I don’t think she belongs in this race, but is in because of her trainer and owner.
Empress Of Midway—X. She could be very talented, but this is asking a lot to soon. She is also another 1 who will be up on the pace.
A’s----- My Miss Sophia and Got Lucky
B’s----- Rosalind and Unbridled Forever
X's----- Everyone else