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Old 09-20-2016, 11:46 PM
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Cahokia Downs
 
Join Date: Dec 2015
Location: Kennett Square, PA
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The Lonesome Glory Grade 1 $150K handicap hurdle race at 2 ½ miles is featured in race 2.

In the 4 turn Lonesome Glory, the final two fences in the stretch will not be jumped, and the field will have a five-furlong run from the last of 10 fences. Same configuration was used last year for this race.

For a grade 1 race, this is an extremely weak field. Trainer Ricky Hendricks has 2 import runners that have a serious chance to win however he will scratch one of his runners, reducing the field size to 7. I believe the handicapper ratings are too high for #7 Charminister and #8 Schoodic, compromising their chances to win.

Here is the Lonesome Glory field with handicap weights.

1-Swansea Mile (Ire). (152) Won at Kempton in April after two wins in July 2015 for former stable. Failed to meet reserve and was bid in at approximately $25,300 at 2016 Goffs UK National Hunt sale in August. Trainer Ricky Hendricks has another good import runner. 134 hurdle rating in England.

2-Scorpiancer (Ire). (154) Gets high weight since he lost to top rated Rawnaq by 15 lengths 2 times in the spring. Stakes placed twice at Saratoga but could not catch front runners in NY Turf Writers on 8/25. Good turf speed. Added distance will benefit his late running chances but has not won since Novice Stakes at Far Hills October 2015. Use in Exotics.

3-Awesome Pearl. (142) Did not finish in only 2016 try at Nashville 5/14. Missed 2015 season due to injury. Not sure why he is entered in this race. Should be carrying 134 based on handicap rating (120) but the NSA doesn’t go that low without apprentice rider allowance.

4-Jamarjo (Ire). (144) Better than it looks 3rd at Monmouth losing a head bob on 6/17 with a fast finish. Andi’Amu came back to run 2nd in NY Turf Writers. Gets a nice weight break off spring campaign. Trainer Leslie Young and rider Paddy Young know this runner like the back of their hands and he always gets a check. Best flat turf speed, late running style, light weight, high winning percentage makes him a formidable opponent. Possible winner and must use in exotics.

5-Hisaabaat (Ire). (152) Another Trainer Hendricks runner making his US debut. Private purchase from Dermot Weld’s stable. Finished third in allowance hurdle in August 2015 after unplaced finish in rich Guinness Galway Handicap Hurdle. Back on 10/24/14, lost to Clondaw Warrior by 1 ½ lengths on the flat in the $120K Tote November Handicap. Clondaw Warrior recently finished 2nd in the American St. Ledger at Arlington 8/13. Excellent turf speed. No 2016 hurdle rating in England or Ireland however NSA rates him at 135.

6-Rudyard K. (144) All out to run 3rd in Saratoga handicap 8/31 and did not finish after losing rider in Saratoga stake on 8/4. Top rider Doyle gets the mount with light weight. Good turf speed. Has a chance to run underneath in exotics if he stays on his feet.

7-Charminster (Ire). (150) 10YO has danced all the big dances and is showing his age. Prefers softer turf than what he’ll get for this race. Leading owner Naylor gives the mount to undistinguished rider Carol Sloan. Average turf speed but added distance helps his chances. Handicapper assigned wrong weight, should be carrying 142. If the turf has a little give, may hit the bottom of the super at a big price.

8-Schoodic. (150) Off the board in both stake tries at Saratoga. Prefers softer turf than what he’ll get today. Another handicapper weight error, should be carrying 144. Leading trainer Fisher gives newcomer Alice Mills the mount. Average turf speed. May hit the bottom of tri and super.

Projected order of finish

4-(1&5)-2-6-8-7-3

For betting purposes
A) 4-(1&5)
B) 2-6
C) 8-7

Best of luck to everyone!!! If there are any significant updates, I'll post the information.
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