[thunderdan09]

When I first looked at the race, I agreed with many of you on this board. I thought no speed at all gives WILD SHOT the best chance to go gate to wire.

Then I looked at my pace figures again and I realized this, I looked at my pace numbers and I honestly think the actual horse that ends up on the front if he wants it is J BOYS ECHO. He actually had the fastest early pace of any horse in the Delta Downs Jackpot even though he never made the lead. And his figures in the Gotham would also get him to the front again over WILD SHOT. Unless WILD SHOT returns his maiden victory or what he did in the Breeders' Futurity, he will not easily make the lead. If Lanerie hustles him out to overtake J BOYS ECHO and then he ends up on the lead, oh well, but in that case it is just going to set it up for the three closers.

I actually am going to play this race three ways and I will cash if it goes any of these directions.

3 over 1,4,6,7 (In this scenario, #3 goes gate to wire with the closers rallying up to pass WILD SHOT and IRAP who will tire from chasing the pace.)


4 over 1,3,6,7 (In this scenario, TAPWRIT gets the jump on the deep closer, catches the best pace setter, J BOYS ECHO, and the other closers rally up to finish ITM with J BOYS ECHO


1,4,6,7 (In this secnario, the pace scenario between the 3,5,6 completely falls apart and the closers take over.)