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Originally Posted by The Bid
TFM, he used the horse for no reason coming down the backside. He ran up to either get postion, or the lead, instead he ran up and idled. That move in its self left the horse nothing in the stretch. Im pretty objective when I watch rides, and although it may not be one of his worst, it certainly cost the horse any chance to win
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No doubt. But let's try an experiment. Compare the trip of this horse vis a vis that of Must be Gold, GP-02-28-08_R1. Who would you want to bet next out with your last dollar?
Here's how I've settled into looking at things. I can watch races very closely and notice many subtle things that I feel cost a horse a race. And, I'm not saying there's anything wrong with this approach, as it's worked for me in the past and I still rely on it AFTER I've identified a potential big race by a horse. Or, I can look at broader issues; specifically, how did the horse perform given the way the race was run?
I then have 2 options: I can make 'excuses' for horses that didn't get the best of trips but didn't exactly put in stellar performances, either (for an example, we have Smokin Rosell, today's 6th at GP ---why did some feel she had bad trips last 2 races?)
OR
I can pick out the trips where a horse ran huge in spite of the race setup or trip/ride. Now, it might seem, at first glance, that the 2nd option would typically involve only chalk. Not the case, however. If you focus on horses that ran exceptionally given the shape of the race, you'll typically get a good performance next out at decent odds. To do this, you need to be able to 'view' the entire race, not just the numbers or trip of the individual horse.
My $.02 for what it's worth.